Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model

Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data, including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km². The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales.     

Exploring Granger causality between global average observed time series of carbon dioxide and temperature

Detection and attribution methodologies have been developed over the years to delineate anthropogenic from natural drivers of climate change and impacts. A majority of prior attribution studies, which have used climate model simulations and observations or reanalysis datasets, have found evidence for human-induced climate change. This papers tests the hypothesis that Granger causality can be extracted from the bivariate series of globally averaged land surface temperature (GT) observations and observed CO₂ in the atmosphere using a reverse cumulative Granger causality test. This proposed extension of the classic Granger causality test is better suited to handle the multisource nature of the data and provides further statistical rigor. The results from this modified test show evidence for Granger causality from a proxy of total radiative forcing (RC), which in this case is a transformation of atmospheric CO₂, to GT. Prior literature failed to extract these results via the standard Granger causality test. A forecasting test shows that a holdout set of GT can be better predicted with the addition of lagged RC as a predictor, lending further credibility to the Granger test results. However, since second-order-differenced RC is neither normally distributed nor variance stationary, caution should be exercised in the interpretation of our results.     

Late quaternary deformation and palaeoseismicity: Insight into geomorphotectonic evolution of Kachchh, western Indian Subcontinent

Kachchh in western Indian Shield, according to the Bureau of Indian Standard (IS:1893:2002), falls in Seismic Zone V. This is intriguing considering that the region is far away from active Plate margin. Apart from the recent incidences of earthquakes, there are several pre-historic/archaeological records of earthquakes in the region. Beyond these, the geological evidence of earth-movements (causing earthquakes) is provided by the occurrence of several’ active’ faults, which are considered geological markers of palaeoseismicity. There are records of innumerable incidences of faulting in the region in not so distant geological past. Study of fault features especially the scarp faces marking abrupt change in physical relief proves that the different levels of topography in the entire terrain are fault-bound features. Studies also confirm that the topographic difference between the high and ’sunken’ features have formed due to uplift and relative down-sagging during the geomorphotectonic evolution of the terrain. Features that make the region unique are: (i) restriction of fault-related deformation zone to a narrow strip between the southern margin of Thar Desert and the south coast line of the Kachchh Peninsula; (ii) overall sub-horizontality of bedding and other topographic and planation surfaces over the entire region; (iii) evidence of fault-controlled geomorphology indicating vertical movement along fault planes; (iv) evidence constraining the time of geomorphological evolution of the terrain only during the Late Quaternary, making it the youngest neotectonically evolved terrain in the Precambrian Indian Shield.     

Variations in shear wave velocity and soil site class in Kolkata city using regression and sensitivity analysis

The detrimental effects of an earthquake are strongly influenced by the response of soils subjected to dynamic loading. The behavior of soils under dynamic loading is governed by the dynamic soil properties such as shear wave velocity, damping characteristics and shear modulus. Worldwide, it is a common practice to obtain shear wave velocity (V _s in m/s) using the correlation with field standard penetration test (SPT) N values in the absence of sophisticated dynamic field test data. In this paper, a similar but modified advanced approach has been proposed for a major metro city of eastern India, i.e., Kolkata city (latitudes 22°20′N–23°00′N and longitudes 88°04′E–88°33′E), to obtain shear wave velocity profile and soil site classification using regression and sensitivity analyses. Extensive geotechnical borehole data from 434 boreholes located across 75 sites in the city area of 185 km² and laboratory test data providing information on the thickness of subsoil strata, SPT N values, consistency indices and percentage of fines are collected and analyzed thoroughly. A correlation between shear wave velocity (V _s) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Kolkata city has been established by using power model of nonlinear regression analysis and compared with existing correlations for other Indian cities. The present correlations, having regression coefficients (R ²) in excess of 0.96, indicated good prediction capability. Sensitivity analysis predicts that significant influence of soil type exists in determining V _s values, for example, typical silty sand shows 30.4 % increase in magnitude of V _s as compared to silt of Kolkata city. Moreover, the soil site classification shows Class D and Class E category of soil that exists typically in Kolkata city as per NEHRP (Recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures—Part 1: Provisions. Prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Report FEMA 450), Washington, DC, 2003) guidelines and thereby highlighting the seismic vulnerability of the city. The results presented in this study can be utilized for seismic microzonation, ground response analysis and hazard assessment for Kolkata city.

     

Higher order corrections to dust-acoustic ZK-solitons in a magnetized quantum dusty plasma

Nonlinear propagation of two dimensional dust-acoustic solitary waves in a magnetized quantum dusty plasma whose constituents are electrons, ions, and negatively charged heavy dust particles are investigated using quantum hydrodynamic model. The Zakharov-Kuznetsov (ZK) equation is derived by using reductive perturbation technique (RPT). The higher order inhomogeneous ZK-type differential equation is obtained for the correction to ZK- soliton. The dynamical equation for dressed soliton is solved by using renormalization method. The effects of obliqueness (l _x ) of the wave vector, magnetic field strength (B ₀), quantum parameter for ions (H _i ), soliton velocity (θ) and Fermi temperature ratio (σ) on amplitudes and widths of the ZK-soliton and as well as of the dressed soliton are investigated. The conditions for the validity of the higher order correction are described. Suitable parameter ranges for the existence of compressive and rarefactive dressed solitons are also discussed.     

Extension of the Kepler problem towards minimization of energy and gravity softening

The classical Kepler Problem consists in the determination of the relative orbital motion of a secondary body (planet) with respect to the primary body (Sun), for a given time. However, any natural system tends to have minimum energy and is subjected to differential gravitational or tidal forces (called into play mainly due to the finite size and deformability of the secondary body). We formulate the Kepler Problem taking into account the finite size of the secondary body and consider an approximation which tends towards minimum energy orbits, by increasing the dimensionality of the problem. This formulation leads to a conceivable natural explanation of the fact that the planetary orbits are characterized by small eccentricities.     

An analysis of precipitation climatology over Indian urban agglomeration

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - While urban areas in India are rapidly expanding, the analysis of how the precipitation regimes are changing is very limited. In the present study, an attempt...     

Mobility of arsenic in West Bengal aquifers conducting low and high groundwater arsenic. Part I: Comparative hydrochemical and hydrogeological characteristics

The present study demonstrates the importance of hydrogeochemical characteristics (groundwater flow and recharge) of an aquifer in the release of As to groundwater. The study area (∼20 km²) is located in Chakdaha block, Nadia district, West Bengal, which hosts groundwaters of variable As content. The spatial distribution pattern of As is patchy with areas containing groundwater that is high in As (>200 μg L⁻¹) found in close vicinity to low As (<50 μg L⁻¹) groundwaters (within 100 m). The concentration of groundwater As is found to decrease with depth. In addition, the data shows that there is no conspicuous relationship between high groundwater As concentration and high groundwater abstraction, although the central cone of depression has enlarged over 2 a and is extending towards the SE of the study area. The river Hooghly, which forms the NW boundary of the study site, shows dual behaviour (effluent and influent during pre- and post-monsoon periods, respectively), complicating the site hydrogeology. The observed groundwater flow lines tend to be deflected away from the high As portion of the aquifer, indicating that groundwater movement is very sluggish in the As-rich area. This leads to a high residence time for this groundwater package, prolonging sediment–water interaction, and hence facilitating groundwater As release.