Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

The convective boundary layer over pasture and forest in Amazonia

Summary The coupling between different types of surface (tropical forest or grass) and the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) has been investigated using observational (rawinsoundings) data collected over Rondônia in southwest Amazonia. The data reported here support the notion that deforestation may modify the dynamics of the boundary layer, in particular during the dry season. In this period the sensible heat fluxes are very high over pasture, creating a CBL around 550m deeper compared to that over the forest. The measurements showed the height of the fully developed CBL for pasture to be 1650m, compared to around 1100m for forest. During the wet season the height of the CBL is lower than during the dry season and has the same height (around 1000m) for forest and pasture sites. The CBL over pasture is hotter and drier than over forest during the dry season, but during the wet season the air temperatures and humidities are similar. Comparing the CBL growth during the dry and wet season, there is evidence that the CBL properties over the forest are not dependent on the surface characteristics, but over the pasture they are.     

Projections of severe droughts in future climate in Southeast Brazil: a case study in Southern Minas Gerais State,Brazil

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - South of Minas Gerais state, in Southeast Brazil, is known for the coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity...     

Morphology and modern sedimentary deposits of the macrotidal Marapanim Estuary (Amazon,Brazil)

The northern Brazilian coast, east of the Amazon River is characterized by several macrotidal estuarine systems that harbor large mangrove areas with approximately 7600 km². The Marapanim Estuary is influenced by macrotidal regime with moderate waves influence. Morphologic units were investigated by using remote sensing images (i.e., Landsat-7 ETM+, RADARSAT- 1 Wide and SRTM) integrated with bathymetric data. The modern sedimentary deposits were analyzed from 67 cores collected by Vibracore and Rammkersonde systems. Analysis of morphology and surface sedimentary deposits of the Marapanim River reveal they are strongly influenced by the interaction of tidal, wave and fluvial currents. Based on these processes it was possible to recognize three distinct longitudinal facies zonation that revels the geological filling of a macrotidal estuary. The estuary mouth contain fine to medium marine sands strongly influenced by waves and tides, responsible for macrotidal sandy beaches and estuarine channel development, which are characterized by wave-ripple bedding and longitudinal cross-bedding sands. The estuary funnel is mainly influenced by tides that form wide tidal mudflats, colonized by mangroves, along the estuarine margin, with parallel laminations, lenticular bedding, root fragments and organic matter lenses. The upstream estuary contains coarse sand to gravel of fluvial origin. Massive mud with organic matter lenses, marks and roots fragments occur in the floodplain accumulates during seasonal flooding providing a slowly aggrading in the alluvial plain. This morphologic and depositional pattern show easily a tripartite zonation of a macrotidal estuary, that are in the final stage of filling.     

Revisiting wintertime cold air intrusions at the east of the Andes: propagating features from subtropical Argentina to Peruvian Amazon and relationship with large-scale circulation patterns

This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges that propagates northward along the eastern flank of the Andes from subtropical to tropical South America analysing wintertime in situ daily minimum temperature observations from Argentina, Bolivia and Peru and ERA-40 reanalysis over the 1975–2001 period. Cold surges usually last 2 or 3 days but are generally less persistent in the southern La Plata basin compared to tropical regions. On average, three to four cold surges are reported each year. Our analysis reveals that 52 % of cold episodes registered in the south of La Plata basin propagate northward to the northern Peruvian Amazon at a speed of around 20 m s^?1. In comparison to cold surges that do not reach the tropical region, we demonstrate that these cold surges are characterized, before they reach the tropical region, by a higher occurrence of a specific circulation pattern associated to southern low-level winds progression toward low latitudes combined with subsidence and dry condition in the middle and low troposphere that reinforce the cold episode through a radiative effect. Finally, the relationship between cold surges and atmosphere dynamics is illustrated for the two most severe cold intrusions that reached the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon in the last 20 years.     

Aerosol characterization and optical thickness retrievalsusing GOME and METEOSAT satellite data

Summary ?Retrievals of atmospheric aerosol optical thickness are highly dependent on the choice of the class describing the aerosol properties leading to significant errors while using classes available in the literature. High spectral resolution measurements from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment) between the ultraviolet and the near infrared can be used for an accurate characterization of the aerosol optical properties. The radiometer MVIRI (METEOSAT Visible and Infrared Imager) on board the geostationary satellite METEOSAT, while being equipped only with broadband VIS channel, ensures an adequate half-hourly monitoring of the atmospheric conditions over a large portion of the Earth. The present algorithm is based on a combination of data from both sensors for the retrieval of the aerosol optical thickness at the reference wavelength of 0.55 μm (AOT). A case of a desert dust outbreak from the African continent over the Atlantic Ocean is examined. AOT values obtained using a priori fixed classes taken from the literature are compared with those retrieved with this algorithm using the GOME-derived classes. Systematic differences of the order of a few tenths on average are found which remain significant also after considering the measurement errors. This represents a novelty introduced by the synergetic use of both sensors. Received March 13, 2002     

The information system of the French Peatland Observation Service: Service National d'Observation Tourbières – A valuable tool to assess the impact of global changes on the hydrology and biogeochemistry of temperate peatlands through long term monitoring

Mitigating and adapting to global changes requires a better understanding of the response of the Biosphere to these environmental variations. Human disturbances and their effects act in the long term (decades to centuries) and consequently, a similar time frame is needed to fully understand the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a natural system. To this end, the ‘Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique’ (CNRS) promotes and certifies long-term monitoring tools called national observation services or ‘Service National d'Observation’ (SNO) in a large range of hydrological and biogeochemical systems (e.g., cryosphere, catchments, aquifers). The SNO investigating peatlands, the SNO ‘Tourbières’, was certified in 2011 ( https://www.sno-tourbieres.cnrs.fr/ ). Peatlands are mostly found in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and French peatlands are located in the southern part of this area. Thus, they are located in environmental conditions that will occur in northern peatlands in coming decades or centuries and can be considered as sentinels. The SNO Tourbières is composed of four peatlands: La Guette (lowland central France), Landemarais (lowland oceanic western France), Frasne (upland continental eastern France) and Bernadouze (upland southern France). Thirty target variables are monitored to study the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of the sites. They are grouped into four datasets: hydrology, fluvial export of organic matter, greenhouse gas fluxes and meteorology/soil physics. The data from all sites follow a common processing chain from the sensors to the public repository. The raw data are stored on an FTP server. After operator or automatic processing, data are stored in a database, from which a web application extracts the data to make them available ( https://data-snot.cnrs.fr/data-access/ ). Each year at least, an archive of each dataset is stored in Zenodo, with a digital object identifier (DOI) attribution ( https://zenodo.org/communities/sno_tourbieres_data/ ).     

U–Pb zircon chronostratigraphy of early-Pliocene ignimbrites from La Pacana, north Chile: implications for the formation of stratified magma chambers

High spatial resolution U–Pb dates of zircons from two consanguineous ignimbrites of contrasting composition, the high-silica rhyolitic Toconao and the overlying dacitic Atana ignimbrites, erupted from La Pacana caldera, north Chile, are presented in this study. Zircons from Atana and Toconao pumice clasts yield apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 4.11±0.20 Ma and 4.65±0.13 Ma (2σ), respectively. These data combined with previously published geochemical and stratigraphic data, reveal that the two ignimbrites were erupted from a stratified magma chamber. The Atana zircon U–Pb ages closely agree with the eruption age of Atana previously determined by K–Ar dating (4.0±0.1 Ma) and do not support long (>1 Ma) residence times. Xenocrystic zircons were found only in the Toconao bulk ignimbrite, which were probably entrained during eruption and transport. Apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb zircon ages of 13 Ma in these xenocrysts provide the first evidence that the onset of felsic magmatism within the Altiplano–Puna ignimbrite province occurred approximately 3 Myr earlier than previously documented.     

Two Brazilian archaeological sites investigated by GPR: Serrano and Morro Grande

The application of the ground penetrating radar (GPR) at two archaeological sites, Serrano and Morro Grande, situated in Araruama County, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, aids the study of a prehistoric indigenous culture, associated with the “Tupinambá” that inhabited the region during prehistoric times.The archaeological remains of the study area are mainly characterized by pottery artifacts for several uses, including funerary urns, which were buried within layers of sand and clay. Several profiles were acquired using a RAMAC system, with a 200 and 400 MHz frequency antennae. At the Serrano site, the profiles were acquired around some partially exposed pottery shards, due to sand exploitation. The resultant profiles provided a response model to guide the interpretation of new profiles acquired at other sites in the area, which present similar characteristics.The results showed the great importance of the dielectric permittivity contrast which exists between the targets and the host media, in order for possibly significant features to be identified in radar data.