A bi-modal model for Chinese cities: City size,car use and land rent

China is experiencing rapid urbanization and motorization. Urban transport congestion poses a challenge to the cities of China. Policies have been made trying to control the car use and the land use in Chinese cities without sound modelling researches. The existing literature on monocentric city modelling has shown that the parameters are critical for the outcome of the modelling. Following the Alonso-type monocentric model, this paper introduces a bi-modal model to simulate the city size, the distribution of land rent and the modal substitution in Chinese cities. We set the key parameters according to the recent available data of China′s cities, and re-explain the hypothesis of the model. Then we make a sensitivity analysis to reveal the impacts of key parameters on the Chinese cities. According to the results, we find that the wage, the price of car use and the agriculture rent have significant impacts on city size. The land supply for the private transport or the public transport has the strongest impacts on car use and the level of transport congestion. The total population of the city and the wage level have strong impacts on land rent. Some results are counter-intuitive, but explainable. We also discuss implication of these results for policy making.     

A GIS-based method of risk assessment on no. 11 coal-floor water inrush from Ordovician limestone in Hancheng mining area,China

The no. 11 coal seam in the deep area of Hancheng mining area is mining in recent years, which is threatened by the water inrush from the Ordovician limestone aquifer. Coal-floor water inrush is governed by the water abundance of coal-floor aquifer, the water-resisting performance of coal-floor aquitard, and the pathway connecting the water source and the working face. To make an accuracy risk assessment of water inrush from the no. 11 coal seam floor, a GIS-based vulnerability index method (VIM) is adopted for its superior comprehensive consideration of more controlling factors, powerful spatial analysis, and intuitively display functions. This study firstly established an index system including the water pressure of the coal-floor aquifer, the unit water inflow, the thickness, the core recovery percentage, the thickness ratio of brittle rocks to ductile rocks, the thickness of effective aquitard, and the accumulated length of faults and folds, of which the former six indexes governed the water abundance of the coal-floor aquifer which was combined with the last two factors to determine the risk of coal-floor water inrush. Secondly, the thematic map of each controlling factor is established by GIS using the geological prospecting data, and the weight of each factor is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) after consulting the expert review panel. At last, a vulnerability index is obtained and used to assess the risk of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam. The risk of water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam of the study area was ranked to three zones: the southeastern shallow area in red color is the dangerous zone, the wide northwestern area in green color is the safe zone, and the transition area in yellow color is the moderate-risk zone. Compared with the actual water-inrush incidents, the risk assessment result was verified to achieve an accuracy of 82.35%, which is proved to be a dependable reference for the prevention and controlling of coal-floor water inrush of the no. 11 coal seam in Hancheng mining area.     

A MATLAB-based Kriged Kalman Filter software for interpolating missing data in GNSS coordinate time series

GNSS coordinate time series data for permanent reference stations often suffer from random, or even continuous, missing data. Missing data interpolation is necessary due to the fact that some data processing methods require evenly spaced data. Traditional missing data interpolation methods usually use single point time series, without considering spatial correlations between points. We present a MATLAB software for dynamic spatiotemporal interpolation of GNSS missing data based on the Kriged Kalman Filter model. With the graphical user interface, users can load source GNSS data, set parameters, view the interpolated series and save the final results. The SCIGN GPS data indicate that the software is an effective tool for GNSS coordinate time series missing data interpolation.     

渤海湾盆地大型基岩潜山储层特征及其控制因素——以渤中19- 6凝析气田为例

渤中19-6气田是渤海湾盆地近期发现的规模最大的深层变质基岩凝析气田,探明储量超过千亿立方米,气柱高度超1000 m,现今埋深大于4000 m,储层规模大但非均质性强.基于三维地震、钻井、测井以及薄片资料,明确了基岩潜山储层的发育特征,并探讨了优质储层形成的主控因素.结果表明:基岩潜山以太古宇变质花岗岩为主要的储集岩性,储集空间主要为构造裂缝,同时发育沿裂缝溶蚀形成的孔隙及构造破碎粒间孔,平均孔隙度为5％,平均渗透率为6.48×10-3μm2.脆性岩石、构造挤压以及风化作用共同控制了规模性储层的形成:① 研究区90％的岩石为低抗压强度的变质花岗岩,为裂缝的形成提供了物质基础;② 印支期强烈的挤压为规模性裂缝的形成提供了外部动力,是大规模储层发育最为关键的因素;不同构造位置裂缝发育程度不同,造成了储层平面分布的非均质性;③ 长期的风化作用使得潜山上部300 m以内的储集物性得到进一步改善,控制了潜山垂向上储层的非均质性.     

四川盆地喜马拉雅期张扭性断裂构造特征及形成机制

前人对四川盆地盆缘冲断带及川中高-磨地区断裂系统进行了系统性研究,但对于盆地其他区块断裂发育特征、形成演化及应力背景的认识尚不充分.发现了梓潼-成都-威远-华蓥山-广安地区震旦系-下三叠统地层中发育的一套区域性张扭性断裂,主要自震旦系及以下地层向上延伸切穿二叠系地层,多为高陡、小断距正断层,部分形成负花状构造.根据该断裂系统的剖面产状、纵向穿层特征及盆地范围内体现出的分异性,推断该断裂系统形成于喜马拉雅期.物理模拟实验研究发现该断裂体系应发育于扭张性应力环境中,该断裂体系的发育指示了四川盆地内部新生代存在南西-北东向张应力,可能与四川盆地新生代发生的逆时针旋转有关.      

无人机遥感技术在甘肃北山地区地质填图中的应用

甘肃北山地区岩浆岩及变质岩出露广泛,植被稀少,地势平缓,是无人机遥感开展地质填图试验的理想目标区。为解决传统地质填图方法受地形、环境限制和投入高及工作周期长等问题,选取北山长流水地区20 km²化探重点工作区为目标区,利用大疆精灵4专业版无人机采集图像,并采用Photoscan软件合成高分辨率正射影像以及三维模型,建立解译标志,对目标区域进行地质解译,获得比前人1：1万地质图更加精细的地质图。该方法较传统填图方法能够解译出地质体形态、岩脉产状、微小断裂等更详细的地质内容,并能提供划分岩脉期次的证据。     

单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场方法分析

由于单雷达在探测台风临近、登陆时仍具有双部或多部雷达难以具备的优势,目前利用单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场的方法并不多见,本文对能够反演涡旋风场的3种方法NIVAP(自然坐标系的积分VAP方法)、EVAPTC(反演热带气旋的EVAP方法)、GBVTD(地基速度追踪法)进行了比较,分别从每种方法的假设条件和数学方法以及结果精度来比较3种方法对涡旋风场的适用性。利用中尺度气旋Rankine模式模拟了纯涡旋性气旋、只有环境风场时、环境风场和辐合(辐散)同时存在时的径向速度场及风场,比较了各种情况下的反演风场和模拟风场的相似系数。在对模拟风场比较之后,选取了2014年"威马逊"台风登陆前1h、登陆时及登陆后1h的3个实测雷达资料,对比分析了3种方法反演实测资料的风场特征,3种方法中EVAPTC方法最好,GBVTD方法在应用中有一定的限制,NIVAP方法较差。     

双向压缩条件下非均匀断层标本变形过程中的声发射活动特征

在双向压缩条件下,研究了一种非均匀断层模型标本在变形过程中的声发射(AE)时空特征.结果表明,随侧向应力sigma;2的增大,断层破裂强度提高,自加载至破坏的时间延长,破坏形式由突发失稳逐渐转变为渐进式破坏.预制断层及其非均匀性对标本变形过程中AE空间分布图象起明显的控制作用.预制断层,特别是预制断层上的强度不均匀部位及高强度段落,控制着微破裂空间分布的总体格局.破裂局部化均起始于断层上强度不均匀部位,随侧向应力sigma;2的增大,微破裂密集区域从预制断层强度不均匀部位逐渐扩展到整个高强度区段.侧向应力sigma;2的大小对AE时序特征具有显著影响.较低sigma;2条件下,断层表现为突发失稳,失稳发生在微破裂活动ldquo;增强-平静rdquo;的背景之上;而较高sigma;2条件下,断层表现为渐进式破坏,破坏前后AE频次持续增加,AER呈指数增长.sigma;2对b值变化也具有一定影响.当断层破坏表现为突发失稳时,b值在弹性阶段后期至弱化阶段显示出ldquo;前兆rdquo;性降低;而当断层表现为渐进式破坏时,b值变化平稳.      

林甸M S 5.1地震前地震活动图像分析和综合预报方法

通过对黑龙江亚板块及其临近区域的不同时段地震活动图像研究分析,发现了中强震前地震活动图像的一些特点,再回归到地震动力学环境中去,建立了理论解释模型和两条判据假说。以此为基础并结合近年来地震活动图像综合分析后,我们在2005年下半年黑龙江省地震趋势会商意见中提出:松嫩盆地是5级以上中强震的主要孕震区。2005年7月25日林甸Ms 5．1地震对此给予了验证。本文对此过程阐述并作进一步分析,希望这种综合预报方法对地震预报工作有所帮助。     

首都圈数字地震台网地震事件波形的管理与服务

介绍了首都圈数字地震台网地震事件波形数据的管理和服务系统的基本功能及使用方法,该系统利用GMT,SAC作为后台处理软件,通过perl,Unix Shell程序实现首都圈地震事件波形数据的网络发布。