青藏高原雨季降水的水汽条件研究

利用1961—2017年青藏高原109站降水量资料、NCEP全球逐月再分析资料,讨论了雨季期间高原的水汽输送特征.结果表明:高原雨季降水呈显著的年际变化特征,高原雨季降水主模态为南北反向型和全区一致型.气候态高原雨季的水汽输送路径为来自阿拉伯海的偏西风水汽输送,在孟加拉湾附近分为三支水汽输送气流:一支向北输送,自高原南...     

A Singular Perturbation Method for Parametric Investigation on J-lay Installation of Deepwater Pipelines

The maximum bending moment or curvature in the neighborhood of the touch down point (TDP) and the maximum tension at the top are two key parameters to be controlled during deepwater J-lay installation in order to ensure the safety of the pipe-laying operation and the normal operation of the pipelines. In this paper, the non-linear governing differential equation for getting the two parameters during J-lay installation is proposed and solved by use of singular perturbation technique, from which the asymptotic expression of stiffened catenary is obtained and the theoretical expression of its static geometric configuration as well as axial tension and bending moment is derived. Finite element results are applied to verify this method. Parametric investigation is conducted to analyze the influences of the seabed slope, unit weight, flexural stiffness, water depth, and the pipe-laying tower angle on the maximum tension and moment of pipeline by this method, and the results show how to control the installation process by changing individual parameters.     

The Rangeland Livestock Carrying Capacity and Stocking Rate in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in China

Maintaining the health and productivity of rangelands by controlling the livestock stocking rate to remain within carrying capacity is of significance to ensure sustainable management of rangeland ecosystems. But we know little about the safe carrying capacity in particular rangeland landscapes. This has hampered efforts to use rangelands in a risk-averse manner in fluctuating rainfall environments, and especially in arid and semiarid areas. To address this lack of information, we took Kailash Sacred Landscape in China (KSL-China) as our study site and used remote sensing data, meteorological data and statistical data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze rangeland carrying capacity, stocking rate, and major influencing factors. Rangeland carrying capacity presented an increasing trend, while stocking rate was gradually decreasing, resulting in an increase of carrying rate in the study area. The increased carrying capacity was closely related to increased rainfall. Stocking rate declined owing to government regulations, particularly implementation in 2004 of the national policy of Returning Grazing Land to Grassland. There was a sharp reduction of livestock number below 200 000 standard sheep units (SU) after 2005. The decrease of stocking rate had a stronger effect on rangeland carrying rate than did the increase of carrying capacity. Ecosystem restoration programs have provided subsidies to pastoralists to encourage them to reduce livestock numbers. Our findings suggest that a safe rangeland carrying capacity is ca. 170 000 SU in KSL-China. There is a carrying capacity surplus of ca. 50 000 SU for safe animal husbandry development in the study area. More importantly, future climate warming and increases in grazing may jointly play a key role in affecting rangeland carrying capacity.     

海上试验场潮流能发电装置综合测试与评价方法分析

通过对潮流能装置的功率输出特性、年发电量、能量转换效率3项核心指标进行分析,提出指标的测试内容和评价方法,为实现潮流能海上试验与测试场建设提供技术依据;并根据对海上风电场的研究,提出了海上试验场潮流能装置的电能质量测试与评估方法;给出潮流能装置安全准入的测试内容,全面评估试验场潮流能装置的运行状态。     

火灾及爆炸共同作用下平面约束钢梁的非线性分析理论

采用非线性铁木辛柯梁单元,结合一种新的温度-率相关本构方程,推导了单元切向刚度矩阵,并编制了有限元程序。该程序可用于进行火灾或爆炸冲击过程中梁的响应分析,亦可用于两者共同作用下梁的耦合响应分析。基于弹性铁木辛柯梁挠曲线方程构造三次插值位移场,同时考虑了梁变形的几何非线性效应并采用了Green-Lagrangian应变,再结合非线性的本构关系,该理论能较完整地考虑火灾及爆炸诸多工况组合下平面约束钢梁可能发生的多种效应。通过对工字型等截面直梁火灾升温及爆炸3种荷载组合形式下的响应分析,验证了理论模型的合理性。     

基于几何配准的多模式SAR影像配准及其误差分析

星载合成孔径雷达影像干涉处理时所需方位向配准精度因成像模式的差异而有所不同,目前在精密轨道条件下以几何配准为基础辅以影像信息的配准方案因其严格的理论模型和较高的精度成为干涉处理的首选。本文以TerraSAR-X影像为例,论证了不同成像模式影像所需的配准精度和卫星轨道精度,并通过理论分析和试验证明了精密轨道条件下,利用几何配准即可满足TerraSAR-X等卫星的条带模式影像干涉处理的需要;聚束模式影像需要在几何配准的基础上利用影像相干性或谱分集进一步优化配准结果。鉴于增强谱分集偏移量估计精度最高,本文进一步利用增强谱分集对比分析了不同轨道不同DEM条件下的几何配准误差。研究结果表明:卫星轨道切向误差是几何配准的主要误差源,目前常用3种DEM几何配准差异远小于0.001个像素,均可满足Sentinel-1影像干涉配准的需要。     

藏北唐古拉山木乃中生代末花岗岩地球化学特征及其构造环境意义

根据花岗岩同源岩浆演化序列,将唐古拉山北坡木乃复式花岗岩体划分为5个单元,归并为木乃超单元。岩石类型依次为紫苏辉石石英二长岩、石英二长岩、二长花岗岩和石英二长斑岩,精确的锆石U—Pb法测年及磷灰石裂变径迹定年表明,它们侵位于晚白垩世晚期,冷却于古新世末。岩石地球化学以贫硅、富钾、贫铝、轻稀土强烈富集、δEu负异常较明显为特征,初始锶同位素比值(^87Sr／^86Sr)为0．706039～0．711251,上述岩石及岩石地球化学和同位素组成揭示了一个壳幔混熔的物源区。研究表明,中生代末花岗岩浆起源于壳幔混熔,为印-亚早期碰撞的产物,属同碰撞-晚造山期壳幔型花岗岩。     

融合历史犯罪数据的疑犯社会活动位置预测

由于重点跟踪人员（疑犯）的社会活动监控数据可获取性差,难以直接反映疑犯的社会活动时空模式,降低了案情分析和犯罪风险预测的有效性。为此,本文提出了融合犯罪记录的位置预测（Crime Records enhanced Location Prediction,CReLP）模型,将疑犯犯罪记录信息融入协同过滤算法,预测疑犯在未来对任意位置的访问频度。该方法利用张量（Tensor）表达疑犯在不同时段和位置上的访问频度,基于疑犯的犯罪事件数据构建疑犯时空关联度矩阵,利用该矩阵约束正则化的张量分解（Tensor Decomposition）过程,以解算出张量中的缺失值,进而获得各疑犯的潜在时空分布模式。实验采用包含了241个疑犯、1.9万个位置记录的真实疑犯位置数据集进行了模型测试,结果表明本文方法在均方根误差和 top-k 最小搜寻距离2个指标上都超过其他Baseline方法32%~63%和14%~26%,大幅提高了位置时空预测的有效性和健壮性。     

水−岩作用下砂岩力学特性及微细观结构损伤演化

在库水位反复升降作用下,库岸边坡消落带部分岩体处于浸泡―风干循环状态,其力学特性的劣化将直接影响库岸边坡的变形稳定。以三峡库区库岸边坡消落带砂岩为研究对象,设计并进行了考虑浸泡―风干循环和水压力升降变化的水?岩作用试验。结合SEM电镜扫描,分析了水?岩作用对砂岩微细观结构的影响,采用PFC2D离散元软件对水?岩作用下砂岩的劣化过程进行了模拟分析。研究结果发现：（1）水?岩作用下砂岩的力学性能劣化效应明显,弹性模量和单轴抗压强度总体呈现先陡后缓的劣化趋势,其中前6次的浸泡―风干循环作用导致的劣化效应尤为明显。（2）水?岩作用下砂岩的微细观结构变化特征明显,由较致密的孔隙式胶结结构逐渐向不规则的蜂窝状结构发展,宏观上就导致了砂岩变形和强度特性的劣化。（3）由PFC2D离散元模拟分析发现：水?岩作用导致岩石内部颗粒强度和颗粒间黏结强度逐渐劣化,非均匀性增强,荷载作用下的应变局部化特征逐渐明显,整体承载能力逐渐降低,破坏模式由典型的张拉破坏逐渐转变为剪切破坏。     

淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析

淮河流域40个县(市)区水稻日照适宜度、降水适宜度与气候适宜度均呈下降趋势。分析淮河流域水稻温度、降水、日照和气候适宜度的区域差异,将淮河流域分为最适宜区、适宜性区、次适宜区。综合降水、日照、温度三因素,将淮河流域水稻气候适宜度分为分成淮北最适宜区、淮南最适宜区、淮河沿岸适宜区和西部山地次适宜区,分析各区水稻适宜度年际变化规律,结果表明:各区的水稻气候适宜度均呈逐渐下降趋势。