乌力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异及归因分析

随着气候变化和人类活动对水资源影响越来越显著,大量水文序列的统计规律不再满足一致性要求而出现了变异。水资源日益重要的社会地位,要求在对水文变异进行检测的同时,需进一步量化影响其变异的因素,但目前归因分析的研究仍以定性或半定量为主。由于降雨和径流是水循环中关键的水文要素,且分别可以反映气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响,利用降雨-径流关系提出了定量研究水资源变异的归因分析方法。结合乌力吉木仁河三级区1956~2000的年径流和年降雨序列,在对其分别进行变异诊断的基础上,定量地分析了造成该区水文变异的原因。计算结果表明:气候变化对乌力吉木仁河三级区水资源变异的贡献率为24%,而人类活动影响的贡献率为76%,可见人类活动是造成该区水资源变异的主要因素。     

大别-胶南高压地体变质杂岩中流体包裹体特征和形成的热动力条件

在中国陆内南北板块之间古缝合线内大别-胶南高压地体中。分布着一套变质程度不一的杂岩系,我们将其划分出三期高峰变质作用形成的不同性质变形变质岩相带,并阐述了各自所代表的矿物流体包裹体特征,计算出它们形成时的温度、压力、氧逸度、差异应力等热动力参数,为揭示地体变形变质环境和构造演化特点,提供了可靠(?)数值根据。     

深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的宏观力学参数研究

基于现有工程试验资料,通过将高压旋喷凝结体分成成芯凝结体和不成芯凝结体两组材料组成,提出了深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的统计力学模型。该模型除能反映成芯凝结体的小尺度力学性质外,还可以反映不成芯凝结体的力学性质,也可考虑试验钻孔中不同芯样获得率的影响。应用随机模拟理论,给出了大体积高喷体内成芯凝结体与不成芯凝结体的空间位置及各小尺度力学参数的抽样方法。并通过结合弹塑性有限元和随机模拟两方法,建立了高喷体宏观力学性质的计算机模拟方法。应用所提三维弹塑性有限元随机模拟方法,分析研究了向家坝水电站深厚覆盖层高压旋喷凝结体的宏观力学参数。     

Intrusion and its implication for subsidence: A case from the Baiyun Sag, on the northern margin of the South China Sea

We develop a series of simple numerical models to explain the anomalous subsidence and deposition phenomena on the northern continental margin of the South China Sea, in particular in the Baiyun Sag. The results suggest that a short-period high rate deposition of around 17 Ma is related to a rapid subsidence event, which may be due to episodic emplacement of a dense intrusion. Necking and gravity models indicate that in the basement of the Baiyun Sag, there is a dense zone that is 100–200 kg/m³ more dense than the surrounding country rock. Considering its high magnetic intensity and regional igneous activity, the dense zone is thought to be related to a phase of basalt intrusion that may have taken place around 17 Ma. Thermal and subsidence models indicate that a hot denser intrusion can cause significant subsidence immediately after the intrusion. The subsidence rate then slows down with cooling, thus becoming consistent with the observed subsidence curves at around 17 Ma. The results also indicate that the lithospheric strength under the Baiyun Sag is negligible, and that the high-velocity layer in the lowermost crust may be not an original part of the pre-rift crust. Instead, it is thought to be underplated intrusion emplaced at around 30 Ma when the continental margin broke up.     

浅析探矿权评估方法应用中存在的问题

由于探矿权勘查风险、地质前景的不可预测性,国内外对探矿权的评估方法仍处于探索阶段,不够成熟.现在探矿权评估有很多方法,但是每种评估方法都有其弊端,文章选取了3个同矿种、同矿带的某勘查区探矿权作为评估对象,这3个勘查区域勘查工作程度不同.通过对3个区块探矿权评估价值的对比分析,来浅析在各阶段各评估方法在现今探矿权评估中尚存在的问题:不管是使用何种方法对勘查区进行评估,由于采用参数不同,评估出的价值将会有很大的差距.     

内蒙古西部额济纳旗及邻区中二叠统腕足类动物群的特征和时代

额济纳旗及其邻区中二叠统产丰富的腕足动物群,该动物群具有北方冷水动物和特提斯暖水动物混生的特点,划分为Spiriferella-Kochiproductus-Yakovlevia 组合,称为“哲斯动物群”。在生物古地理分区上,该区为北方生物大区和特提斯生物大区之间的过渡带,称为中蒙生物省。动物群的组成、丰度和分异度等特征在银-额（银根-额济纳旗）盆地的东西部有明显的差异：盆地西部北山地区海水较浅,腕足动物群丰度高,分异度略低,以个体较大、壳体较厚的冷水分子占优势,共生少量的双壳类和珊瑚;东部杭乌拉地区海水略深,腕足动物群丰度稍低,分异度较高,含有大量的小个体腕足,共生冷水型珊瑚和丰富的海百合类,世界广布分子和暖水分子超过一半。说明该腕足动物群在受纬度和温度控制的同时,也受水体深度的影响,在同一海盆的不同环境中表现出不同的特点。通过对该动物群的起源、区域分布特点和共生生物的分析,认为额济纳旗及其邻区的哲斯动物群的时限为罗甸期—孤峰期。     

A New Strategy for Solving a Class of Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems Related to Weather and Climate Predictability

There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.     

水平离散网格与大气运动

从线性浅水方程组出发,在Arakawa A-E网格和z网格上,从频率和群速方面讨论了这六种网格对大气中的两种重要的波动：惯性重力波和Rossby波的描述能力。结果表明：C、z、E网格比其它网格产生的歪曲都要小。     

中国东北和西北区域三种再分析资料与探空资料的温度对比分析

利用中国105站的探空资料以及NCEP/NCAR、ERA和JRA三种再分析资料,采用均方根误差、趋势分析等多种统计分析方法,对再分析资料的高空温度在中国东北和西北区域的可信度进行了分析。结果表明：在气候平均方面,JRA资料相比于探空资料的均方根误差较小,冬季的均方根误差较小,西北区的均方根误差普遍大于东北区;在年际变化方面,东北区三种再分析资料在低层的反映程度明显好于高层,西北区各层三种再分析资料与探空资料的差值普遍比东北区大;在长期变化方面,三种再分析资料在对流层低层都较好,东北区NCEP资料能更好地反映探空资料高层的降温趋势,而在西北区,则是JRA资料能更好地反映探空资料高层的降温趋势。     

呼和浩特市降水化学特征分析

对2006年呼和浩特市降水离子监测资料进行分析,结果表明:降水呈碱性,季节分布明显,夏季降水集中且pH值为全年最低,冬季降水量少,pH值较高;SO42-离子为主要致酸离子,阳离子中Ca2+,Mg2+离子的浓度很高;降水中主要成分之间相关性显著,Ca2+的中和作用较强;降水气团的后向轨迹分析表明蒙古国的沙漠地区是呼和浩特冬春季碱性降水的主要来源,夏季较低的pH值降水则部分源于我国的华中、华北地区的酸性污染物中长距离输送。