Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station

Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R~2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m~(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m~(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.     

Application of Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method to Assessing the Relative Impacts of Initial Condition and Model Errors on Local Backward Predictability

Initial condition and model errors both contribute to the loss of atmospheric predictability. However, it remains debatable which type of error has the larger impact on the prediction lead time of specific states. In this study, we perform a theoretical study to investigate the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local prediction lead time of given states in the Lorenz model. Using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method, the prediction lead time,also called local backward predictability limit(LBPL), of given states induced by the two types of errors can be quantitatively estimated. Results show that the structure of the Lorenz attractor leads to a layered distribution of LBPLs of states. On an individual circular orbit, the LBPLs are roughly the same, whereas they are different on different orbits. The spatial distributions of LBPLs show that the relative effects of initial condition and model errors on local backward predictability depend on the locations of given states on the dynamical trajectory and the error magnitudes. When the error magnitude is fixed, the differences between the LBPLs vary with the locations of given states. The larger differences are mainly located on the inner trajectories of regimes. When the error magnitudes are different, the dissimilarities in LBPLs are diverse for the same given state.     

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies※

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YHRV) in 2020 was characterized by an early onset, a delayed retreat, a long duration, a wide meridional rainbelt, abundant precipitation, and frequent heavy rainstorm processes. It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu, a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt, and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes. Correspondingly, during the mei-yu season, the monsoon circulation subsystems, including the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the upper-level East Asian westerly jet, and the low-level southwesterly jet, experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO. Most notably, the repeated establishment of a large southerly center, with relatively stable latitude, led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly. This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes. Moreover, two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia, and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active, which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths. The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV. The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH, which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.     

分形滤波技术在新疆黄山-镜儿泉镍铜成矿带中的应用

为了深化新疆黄山-镜儿泉镍铜成矿带的成矿地质认识, 进一步确定找矿勘查方向, 采用多重分形滤波技术, 对该地区水系沉积物或岩屑地球化学测量数据中的Ni元素进行分析, 结果显示研究区西北部吐哈盆地具有高背景、弱异常且异常分散的特点; 中部康古尔大断裂带以及研究区东南部具有低背景、强异常、且异常呈带状分布的特点; 这可能是由于, 石炭世晚期至二叠纪早期的地幔柱事件在研究区中部和东南部沿深大断裂有大量玄武岩喷溢, 到新生代被剥蚀运移到西北部地形较低的吐哈盆地, 而在原地只残留其根部造成的。中部和东南部带状分布的Ni异常是可能的找矿有利地段。     

NaCl-H2O-CO2体系人工合成流体包裹体实验研究

NaCl- H2O-CO2体系流体是热液成矿系统中最常见的流体之一,针对该体系相关特征的研究对理解热液矿床的成矿机制和过程、成矿流体特征等具有重要的理论和实际意义.本文利用愈合人工水晶裂隙的技术,开展100 MPa、800℃条件下NaCl-H2 O-CO2体系流体的人工合成包裹体实验,并对其物理化学性质进行了初步探讨.通过对合成的包裹体进行岩相学观察、显微测温以及喇曼光谱分析,结果表明,在实验温压条件下合成的包裹体捕获了既定组成的流体;人工合成NaCl- H2O-CO2体系流体包裹体与天然流体包裹体具有相似的特征,可以作为天然包裹体的参照物应用于流体包裹体及地质流体的研究,特别是在评价CO2在热液矿床成矿过程中的作用方面,NaCl-H2O-CO2体系人工合成包裹体具有广阔的应用前景.     

天然状态与饱和状态下的不稳定斜坡危险性对比分析

本文依据北京市房山区史家营乡大村涧村的调查成果,借助于有限元分析软件,建立居住区附近影响范围内的边坡三维工程地质力学模型和弹塑性模型,利用有限差分法分析,对单一矸石堆边坡和矸石-岩土混合型边坡,进行计算分析,对比分析了这两种边坡在天然状态下与饱和状态下的安全系数,最终进行了边坡危险性评价。     

考虑粘性土体低速非Darcy渗流地面沉降模拟的探讨

过度抽汲地下水引发的地面沉降是全球广泛关注的地质环境问题。对其进行数值模拟是实现地面沉降灾害科学管理的最有效手段。水流模型是地面沉降模型的必要组成部分,对其刻画得准确与否将影响沉降模拟的准确度。本文首先综述了低渗透性粘性土体中的低速非线性Darcy渗流规律,而后从地面沉降发生的地质背景分析出发,论证了低速非线性Darcy渗流对地面沉降模拟的作用,并讨论了当前地面沉降模拟中水流模型刻画的不足之处。最后提出了如何在地面沉降模拟中考虑低速非Darcy渗流的4个关键性科学问题,对该问题的探讨有助于提高地面沉降模拟的准确性。     

双桥-新路地区遥感影像的增强处理与构造解译

通过综合利用主成分分析替换法和高分辨率主成分分析融合法,对双桥-新路地区的遥感影像进行了增强处理与构造解译、甄别,突出了不同规模构造体系的特点,实现了对区内不同规模构造信息的有效补充。经后期野外验证,解译成果具有较高可信度,有助于该区热液型铀矿找矿靶区的圈定定位及后续资源潜力评价工作的开展。     

江南古陆中段沧水铺群锆石U-Pb年龄和构造演化意义

江南古陆中段湖南益阳地区沧水铺群发育在冷家溪群和板溪群之间,其在地层柱中的位置一直是中国地质学家解疑江南造山带何时启动的关键层位。笔者在沧水铺群中的火山集块岩中获得锆石SHRIMP U-Pb年龄(821±13)Ma,再次验证了沧水铺群中的火山岩是820 Ma武陵运动之前的火山事件的产物,与武陵运动的启动有关,也说明该期火山岩与冷家溪群中大量的火山凝灰岩为同一构造运动的产物。     

华南造山带下寒武统和中奥陶统发现放射虫

在华南造山带江西萍乡下寒武统牛角河组泥质板岩和湖南永州中奥陶统烟溪组硅质岩中首次发现放射虫。放射虫的发现表明萍乡—永州一带寒武纪—中奥陶世存在相当规模的处于低纬度的海盆。