引潮力与显著地震关系及其在短临预报中的应用

对引潮力与显著地震的关系及其在地震短临预报中的应用作了较系统的总结, 进一步完善了笔者提出的基于显著地震特点的地震短临预报方法, 简称CH方法。 1997年至2003年5月应用CH方法所作的全部21次地震短临预报中, 与地震实况比较, 较好和做了一定程度预报的共有12次, 占57%, 这表明用于地震短临预报的CH方法具有较好的效能。     

多筒吸力平台沉放调平模型试验

描述了位于渤海辽东湾93地区人工岛靠船系缆平台沉放调平模型的试验过程,系缆平台的基础采用了三筒结构型式,这也是我国应用于海洋工程的第一个多筒型基础平台,尽管海上施工前对筒型基础沉放已有了一定的经验, 但多数都是基于吸力锚或单筒式吸力平台结构,对于多筒式吸力基础平台还没有任何的工程经验。试验为海上原型结构沉放施工可行性及施工调平程序的编制起到了一定的指导作用。     

Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021

An unprecedented cold wave intruded into East Asia in early January 2021 and led to record-breaking or historical extreme low temperatures over vast regions.This study shows that a major stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)event at the beginning of January 2021 exerted an important influence on this cold wave.The major SSW event occurred on 2 January 2021 and subsequently led to the displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the East Asian side.Moreover,the SSW event induced the stratospheric warming signal to propagate downward to the mid-to-lower troposphere,which not only enhanced the blocking in the Urals-Siberia region and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation,but also shifted the tropospheric polar vortex off the pole.The displaced tropospheric polar vortex,Ural blocking,and another downstream blocking ridge over western North America formed a distinct inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern(IOCP)in the East Asia-North Pacific sector.This IOCP was the most direct and impactful atmospheric pattern causing the cold wave in East Asia.The IOCP triggered a meridional cell with an upward branch in East Asia and a downward branch in Siberia.The meridional cell intensified the Siberian high and low-level northerly winds,which also favored the invasion of the cold wave into East Asia.Hence,the SSW event and tropospheric circulations such as the IOCP,negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,Ural blocking,enhanced Siberian high,and eastward propagation of Rossby wave eventually induced the outbreak of an unprecedented cold wave in East Asia in early January 2021.     

Forest landscape patterns dynamics of Yihe-Luohe river basin

Based on the information from forest resources distribution maps of Luoning County of 1983 and 1999, six indices were used to analyze spatial patterns and dynamics of forest landscapes of the typical region in the middle of the Yihe-Luohe river basin. These indices include patch number, mean patch area, fragment index, patch extension index, etc. The results showed that: (1) There was a rapid increase in the number of patch and total area from 1983 to 1999 in the study area. The fragment degree became very high. (2) The area of all the forest patch types had witnessed great changes. The fractal degree of each forest patch type became big from 1983 to 1999. The mean extension index of Robinia pseudoacacia forest, non-forest, shrub forest, sparse forest, and Quercus species forest increased rapidly, but that of economic forest became zero. The fractal dimension each showed that forest coverage has been promoted. (3) The changes of landscape patterns were different in different geomorphic regions. From 1983 to 1999 the vegetation cover area, the gross number and the density of patch, diversity and evenness of landscape were all reduced greatly in gullies and ravines, but the maximum area and the mean area of patch types were increased. In hilly region, both the forest cover area and the number of patch increased from 1983 to 1999, but the mean area of patch was reduced greatly. In mountain region, even though the area under forest canopy reduced from 1983 to 1999, the patch number was increased greatly, the mean area of all patch types was reduced, the extension index, diversity index and evenness index of landscape were all increased. Furthermore, because of different types of land use, human activity and terrain, the vegetation changes on northern and southern mountain slopes were different. According to these analyses, the main driving forces, such as the policies of management, market economy, influence of human activities etc. are brought out.     

韧性剪切带位移量统计方法评述——以西秦岭元家坪韧性剪切带为例

韧性剪切带位移量的计算方法较多 ,每一种方法都有它适用的范围 ,应根据区域地质特点选择适宜的方法进行计算。在对元家坪韧性剪切带位移量的计算中 ,对其方法进行了比较 ,认为应用多种方法计算及验证 ,能得出较准确的位移量。     

韧性剪切带位移量统计方法评述——以西秦岭元家坪韧性剪切带为例

韧性剪切带位移量的计算方法较多 ,每一种方法都有它适用的范围 ,应根据区域地质特点选择适宜的方法进行计算。在对元家坪韧性剪切带位移量的计算中 ,对其方法进行了比较 ,认为应用多种方法计算及验证 ,能得出较准确的位移量。     

渭河断陷地壳三维S波速度结构和VP/VS分布图像

利用陕西及邻省区域地震台网的观测数据,采用重叠元迭代重建层析成像技术,结合两点快速射线追综,对渭河断陷盆地地壳的S波速度进行了层析反演成像.并利用前期P波速度的研究结果,计算了该地区地壳的VP/VS分布.研究结果表明:(1)S波速度分布两个地区存在强烈的横向不均匀性,其一是陕晋交界的合阳、永济地区,二是铜川、泾阳地区,它们都位于不同构造单元交汇地带,差异运动显著,是新老地层交错的地区.(2)历史强震震中主要分布在S波的高速区及边缘地带;(3)在淳化、耀县、泾阳之间存在VP/VS高值区,最高达2.1.     

确定海洋平台钢裂纹扩展曲线的快速方法

提出了一种确定海洋平台钢裂纹扩展曲线的快速方法。该方法可以综合利用以往的经验数据和当前试验数据确定表面疲劳裂纹扩展速率曲线。与传统的只能利用当前试验数据确定表面疲劳裂纹扩展速率曲线相比。其可利用信息量大幅度增加,所以在精度相同的情况下,可以节省大量试件;而且在试样数一定的情况下。又可大大提高预测精度。文中还给出了海洋平台钢试验对比实例。     

工业废水和城市综合污水的环境风险管理

综述了国内外工业废水与城市综合废水的监控和环境风险管理进展。与发达国家比较,化学监测法是目前我国工业废水和城市综合污水监控的唯一手段,而且主要有赖于COD等极少参数,并不能有效监控复合有毒有机污染物的排放。采用生态毒性检测法,可弥补这一缺陷,满足环境风险管理要求。毒性鉴别评价鉴别出导致废水/污水生态毒性的关键有机毒物,是降低其环境风险的核心。还对生态毒性检测法应用于我国废水/污水排放的监控和环境风险管理前景做了评述。     

一种基于改进SEIR模型的突发公共卫生事件风险动态评估与预测方法——以欧洲十国COVID-19为例

突发公共卫生事件会严重影响社会公众生命健康,风险评估和预测可为突发公共卫生事件有效防控提供科学依据.本文提出了一种基于SEIR模型的突发公共卫生事件风险动态评估与预测方法,将突发公共卫生事件传播与人口、医疗、经济情况相结合,耦合危险性与脆弱性,建立合理的风险评估综合指标体系,利用熵值一层次分析组合模型实现突发公共卫生事...