未来极端降水对气候平均变暖敏感性的蒙特卡罗模拟试验

利用Weibull分布拟合逐日降水的原始分布模式,并基于统计降尺度和蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法,对中国东部区域各站逐日极端降水量在未来气候变暖条件下的响应特征进行统计数值试验.结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,区域平均温度的改变即可导致区域极端降水概率分布特征的变动.从两个典型代表区域的预估结果中可见,长江中下游南部平均降水量对平均温度升高有正响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率分布曲线有明显的向右平移,导致大量级的极端降水的再现期缩短即概率增大.山东及渤海湾区域平均降水量对平均温度升高有负响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率密度分布尺度参数变小更明显,即方差增大,表现为左右两侧概率密度增加,同样导致大量级的极端降水再现期缩短即概率增大.本文仅考察了气候均值改变条件下,未来区域气候极端值的概率预估的可行性方案.对于未来气候方差的变化并未作试验,但理论上已经证明,未来气候极端值的概率对于气候方差变化的敏感性可能更大.由于目前尚未整卵出考察方差变化的较为完整的实际观测资料,该问题还有待进一步深入研究.     

降水气候强迫下非均匀地表区域平均径流的一种参数化方案

将任一中尺度区域的平均瞬间径流率考虑为区域平均降水量和地表土壤层水分渗透垦的余项.根据降水量在地理空间上分布的实测资料拟合其空间概率密度函数(PDF),并结合土壤入渗物理过程的数学描述及其经验公式,精确估计出地表土壤渗透率及其空间分布,由此建立区域地表径流率的统计-动力学估计方案.换言之,区域内地表产流率可视为区域平均降水量与区域平均的土壤下渗量之差值,而区域内土壤的平均下渗量又町分为非饱和区和饱和区两部分的下渗量来分别计算.就陆面水分循环的物理过程而言,地表入渗现象是在一定的下垫面特性基础上,由一定的水分供应源而形成的.根据大气降水向地表层输送水分的物理过程,在满足植被表层覆盖需水(截流水)和地表层土壤人渗水基础上,多余的降水量才会形成地表径流.凶此,推求地表产流率的主要关键在于地表土壤层需水量.为此奉文根据土壤水分通量方程推导出水分入渗公式.又从描述土壤水分和降水的空间PDF出发,推导出非均匀土壤含水量及降水气候强迫所形成的次网格尺度区域平均径流率计算公式.利用长江三角洲地区1996年降水量和土壤特性等实测资料建立区域平均地表径流率的估计公式,并对其影响凶素进行敏感性试验.结果表明,该方法与用Mosaic方法计算的区域径流率(或产流率)结果十分接近.由此可见,该文提出的降水气候强迫下非均匀地表区域平均径流的这种统计-动力参数化方案,具有相当的可靠性与可行性.     

综合办公大楼的雷击风险评估方法

根据标准和现行法律法规的规定,雷电风险评估应在新建建筑物的设计之前进行,或在防雷整改工程实施之前完成,其目的是使雷电防护设计建立在科学的基础上,避免盲目性,保证防雷工程安全可靠、技术先进、经济合理.该文通过对某综合办公大楼进行施工前的雷电风险评估,来具体说明评估的方法.     

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUSTAINED TORRENTIAL RAINS IN JUNES DURING 1958-2000

Day-to-day precipitation data of Junes during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.     

A Study on the Light Curves of GRBs

It is generally believed that the complexity and variability of the light curves of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are caused by the internal shocks, which would occur when a rapid shell catches up a slower one and collides with it. The electrons in the shock layer are heated by the shocks and radiate via the mechanisms of synchrotron radiation and inverse Compton scattering. Based on relativistic kinematics, a relation between the photon number of the emission from the rapidly moving shock layer and the number of the photons received by an observer is derived. Then, employing the angular spreading of the internal shock emission, the curve equation and profile of a single pulse are obtained, and the shape is typically in the shape of a fast rise and exponential decline. Furthermore, by using the model of the successive collisions of multiple shells under the condition of reasonable parameters, the observed light curves are fitted with a rather good effect. Therefore, by this means, more different types of light curves of GRBs can be explained.     

晶须在复合材料中的应用及其作用机理

阐述了晶须增强复合材料的主要机理,介绍了晶须对复合材料尤其是对聚合物基的复合材料性能的影响,并展望今后的研究方向。     

利用GIS技术和RS技术减灾防灾

减灾防灾是一项需要多学科知识融会贯通的长期工程。灾难的发生是由多种因素造成的,在分析管理的时候,需要大量的数据源,因而,分析过程相当地耗时耗费。近年,由于能够高效提供详细、精确的相关数据．GIS技术和RS技术在灾难管理方面应用广泛、发展迅速,遥感技术提供灾情数据．GIS技术通过模型将各种数据有机地整合起来,包括空间数据、非空间数据、属性数据,使它们在灾难管理的各个阶段发挥不同的作用。     

eCognition在土地利用项目中的应用

主要介绍了eCognition对高分辨率卫星影像进行地物分类的技术方法。并以深圳铁岗水库附近地区为例,说明该技术在土地利用分类中应用的可行性和潜力,为高分辨率卫星影像在地物分类中的有效应用提供了新的技术手段。     

西秦岭北缘新阳—元龙韧性剪切带中花岗质糜棱岩黑云母40Ar 39Ar年龄及地质意义

西秦岭北缘新阳-元龙大型韧性剪切带是分划西秦岭造山带与祁连造山带的区域主构造边界,通过对其物质组成和构造特征的研究,结合两侧不同(洋-陆)构造环境下各类地质体的研究成果,重点对剪切带内花岗质糜棱岩中黑云母单矿物进行了~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar定年研究.在新阳镇和元龙北剪切带中分别获得(347.95±2.17)Ma (MSWD＝1.89)和(351.70±1.72)Ma (MSWD＝0.80)的坪年龄,分析确定其应为黑云母的冷却年龄,表明变形时代应在早石炭世早期之前;反映了最晚在早石炭世早期,该剪切带已横切秦岭与祁连造山带并发生强烈的右行走滑构造拼贴作用.