Intermediate time error growth and predictability: tropics versus mid-latitudes

The evolution of identical twin errors from an atmospheric general circulation model is studied in the linear range (small errors) through intermediate times and the approach to saturation. Between forecast day 1 and 7, the normalized error variance in the tropics is similar to that at higher latitudes. After that, tropical errors grow more slowly. The predictability time τ taken for tropical errors to reach half their saturation values is larger than that for mid-latitudes, especially for the planetary waves, thus implying greater potential predictability in the tropics.
The discrepancy between mid-latitude and tropical τ is more pronounced at 850 hPa than at 200 hPa, is largest for the planetary waves, and is more pronounced for errors arising from wave phase differences (than from wave amplitude differences).
The spectra of the error in 200 hPa zonal wind show that for forecast times up to about 5 d, the tropical error peaks at much shorter scales than the mid-latitude errors, but that subsequently tropical and mid-latitude error spectra look increasingly similar.
The difference between upper and lower level tropical τ may be due to the greater influence of mid-latitudes at the upper levels.     

Comment on ' ... Magmatic Conditions of the Fish Canyon Tuff, Central San Juan Volcanic Field, Colorado ' by Whitney & Stormer (1985)

Magmatic conditi ons inferred from the composition of the FishCanyon Tuff by Whitney &Stormer (J. Petrology, 26, 726–62(1985)) and Stormer & Whitney (Am. Miner. 70, 52–64(1985)) differ from studies of other ash-flow tuff and calderasystems, in that they consider the magma to have been unzonedand to have resided at {small tilde}9 kb pressure just priorto eruption. We find these conclusions unconvincing becauseof incomplete sampling of the Fish Canyon Tuff, alteration ofthe tuff after emplacement, and, in particular, serious limitationsof coupled Fe-Ti oxide and two-feldspar geothermobarometry.     

Interlobate ice-sheet dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum at Whitburn Bay, County Durham, England

This research reconstructs ice-sheet processes operating during the Late Devensian in northeast England. The article assesses the lithostratigraphy of the Devensian glacial tills of Whitburn Bay, eastern County Durham, and presents the first detailed analysis of petrological, geochemical and biostratigraphical data to reconstruct lithostratigraphy, provenance and iceflow pathways. Two Devensian tractions tills (the Blackhall and Horden tills) are separated by a boulder pavement, pointing to a switch in ice-bed conditions and the production of a melt-out lag prior to deposition of the upper traction till, the Horden Till. The Blackhall Till contains Magnesian Limestone, Carboniferous Limestone, Whin Sill dolerite and Old Red Sandstone, suggesting a northwesterly source, probably from the Midland Valley and the Southern Uplands. The Horden Till contains erratics and heavy minerals derived from crystalline bedrock sources in the Cheviot Hills and northeast Scotland. Within the Horden Till are numerous sand, clay and gravel-filled canals incised downwards into the diamicton which are attributed to a low-energy, distributed, subglacial canal drainage system. Coupled with hydro-fractures and the boulder pavement, this suggests that a partially decoupled, fast-flowing ice stream deposited the Horden Till. The uphill, landward direction of ice movement indicates that the ice stream was confined in the North Sea Basin, possibly by the presence of Scandinavian Ice.     

H2O Abundance in Depleted to Moderately Enriched Mid-ocean Ridge Magmas; Part I: Incompatible Behaviour, Implications for Mantle Storage, and Origin of Regional Variations

The H₂O contents and trace-element abundances are presentedfor two well-studied suites of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)glasses from the Northern East Pacific Rise (EPR, 9–11°N)and the South East Indian Ridge (SEIR, 127–129°E).Exactly the same region of the glass samples has been analysedfor these components using microbeam techniques. Our data allowexamination of the fine details of H₂O geochemical behaviourduring MORB genesis. We demonstrate that relative H₂O contents[i.e. H₂O/(another incompatible element)] vary systematicallywith increasing (La/Sm)_N in MORB glasses from both the EPR andSEIR. This indicates that H₂O behaves like other incompatible(in peridotite mineralogies) elements during MORB petrogenesis,and is primarily controlled by solid–melt partitioning.However, the relative H₂O contents of MORB glasses from theSEIR are higher than in glasses from the EPR at a given (La/Sm)_N,demonstrating global variations in the H₂O contents of MORB.Despite regional differences in relative H₂O contents, the incompatiblebehaviour of H₂O is similar in both studied regions. The relativeincompatibility of H₂O varies systematically with increasing(La/Sm)_N: in depleted MORB, H₂O is similar to La whereas inEMORB, H₂O is similar to Ce. Similar patterns of varying relativeincompatibility (to REE) are displayed by Zr, Hf, and P. Ourdata are best explained if H₂O is stored in the mantle in thesame phase with LREE (clinopyroxene?) at sub-solidus. Regionalvariations in relative H₂O contents in EMORB that have moreradiogenic Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes might be explained by differencesin the nature of enriched components recycled via subductionprocesses. However, when EMORB have the same radiogenic isotopecompositions as NMORB within a segment, relative H₂O contentsin EMORB probably reflect local processes that lead to enrichmentin incompatible elements. Regional differences in relative H₂Ocontents of NMORB may reflect either initial variations in theEarth’s mantle or inhomogeneities left after formationof the continental crust. KEY WORDS: glass; geochemistry; H₂O; MORB; petrology     

Aerodynamic entrainment threshold: effects of boundary layer flow conditions

Experimental data are presented demonstrating the influence of boundary layer flow conditions on aerodynamic entrainment of grains in the absence of intersaltation collisions. New methods are proposed for (1) the unambiguous determination of aerodynamic threshold for any grain population and (2) approximation of the probability density function (PDF) distributions of threshold shear velocity for aerodynamic entrainment. In wind tunnel experiments, the orderly spatial development of flow conditions within a developing boundary layer over the roughened surface of a flat plate constrains the aerodynamic threshold condition in terms of both mean and fluctuating values. Initial grain dislodgements and subsequent erosion from narrow strips of loose, finely fractionated ballotini were recorded photographically as wind speed was increased. Boundary layer parameters, including average threshold shear velocity (U_*t), were calculated using the momentum integral method. Direct observations show that sporadic oscillation of grains preceded dislodgement. At slightly higher velocities most grains rolled over their neighbours before entering saltation. Initial entrainment in spatially semi-organized flurries of 50 or more grains was followed by quiescent periods at airflow velocities close to threshold. These observations provide strong circumstantial evidence linking both the nature and spatial pattern of initial grain motions to sweep events during the fluid bursting process. For each grain fraction, values of U_*t were found to span an unexpectedly wide range and to decrease downwind from the leading edge of the plate as turbulence intensity increased. A probabilistic entrainment model is applied to the aerodynamic threshold condition so as to incorporate the effects of changing turbulent flow regimes over the plate. Analysis of strip erosion curves gives both an objective definition of the threshold condition and usable approximations of the PDF for U_*t required by the model and for future stochastic treatment of the threshold condition.     

Deciphering the depositional environment of the laminated Crato fossil beds (Early Cretaceous,Araripe Basin,North‐eastern Brazil)

The laminated limestones of the Early Cretaceous Crato Formation of the Araripe Basin (North‐eastern Brazil) are world‐famous for their exceptionally well‐preserved and taxonomically diverse fossil fauna and flora. Whereas the fossil biota has received considerable attention, only a few studies have focused on the sedimentary characteristics and palaeoenvironmental conditions which prevailed during formation of the Crato Fossil Lagerstätte. The Nova Olinda Member represents the lowermost and thickest unit (up to 10 m) of the Crato Formation and is characterized by a pronounced rhythmically bedded, pale to dark lamination. To obtain information on palaeoenvironmental conditions, sample slabs derived from three local stratigraphic sections within the Araripe Basin were studied using high‐resolution multiproxy techniques including detailed logging, petrography, μ‐XRF scanning and stable isotope geochemistry. Integration of lithological and petrographic evidence indicates that the bulk of the Nova Olinda limestone formed via authigenic precipitation of calcite from within the upper water column, most probably induced and/or mediated by phytoplankton and picoplankton activity. A significant contribution from a benthonic, carbonate‐secreting microbial mat community is not supported by these results. Deposition took place under anoxic and, at least during certain episodes, hypersaline bottom water conditions, as evidenced by the virtually undisturbed lamination pattern, the absence of a benthonic fauna and by the occurrence of halite pseudomorphs. Input of allochthonous, catchment‐derived siliciclastics to the basin during times of laminite formation was strongly reduced. The δ¹⁸O values of authigenic carbonate precipitates (between ?7·1 and ?5·1‰) point to a ¹⁸O‐poor meteoric water source and support a continental freshwater setting for the Nova Olinda Member. The δ¹³C values, which are comparatively rich in ¹³C (between ?0·1 and +1·9‰), are interpreted to reflect reduced throughflow of water in a restricted basin, promoting equilibration with atmospheric CO₂, probably in concert with stagnant conditions and low input of soil‐derived carbon. Integration of lithological and isotopic evidence indicates a shift from closed to semi‐closed conditions towards a more open lake system during the onset of laminite deposition in the Crato Formation.     

Dissolution of Corundum and Andalusite in H2O-Saturated Haplogranitic Melts at 800{degrees}C and 200 MPa: Constraints on Diffusivities and the Generation of Peraluminous Melts

The mechanisms and kinetics of equilibration between peraluminousminerals and granitic melt were investigated experimentallyby the dissolution of corundum and andalusite into H₂O-saturatedmetaluminous haplogranitic melt at 800°C and 200 MPa. Mineraland haplogranitic glass rods were juxtaposed inside platinumcapsules, and then subjected to experimental conditions fortimes ranging from 12 to 2900 h. Upon melting, the mineral –meltinterface retreats with the square root of time. The compositionof the melt at the interface changes with time, but its ASI[aluminum saturation index = molar Al₂O₃/(CaO + Na₂O + K₂O)]remains constant at     

Lake Hoare, Antarctica: sedimentation through a thick perennial ice cover

Lake Hoare in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica is covered with a perennial ice cover more than 3 m thick, yet there is a complex record of sedimentation and of growth of microbial mats on the lake bottom. Rough topography on the ice covering the lake surface traps sand that is transported by the wind. In late summer, vertical conduits form by melting and fracturing, making the ice permeable to both liquid water and gases. Cross-sections of the ice cover show that sand is able to penetrate into and apparently through it by descending through these conduits. This is the primary sedimentation mechanism in the lake. Sediment traps retrieved from the lake bottom indicate that rates of deposition can vary by large amounts over lateral scales as small as 1 m. This conclusion is supported by cores taken in a 3 × 3 grid with a spacing of 1.5 m. Despite the close spacing of the cores, the poor stratigraphic correlation that is observed indicates substantial lateral variability in sedimentation rate. Apparently, sand descends into the lake from discrete, highly localized sources in the ice that may in some cases deposit a large amount of sand into the lake in a very short time. In some locations on the lake bottom, distinctive sand mounds have been formed by this process. They are primary sedimentary structures and appear unique to the perennially ice-covered lacustrine environment. In some locations they are tens of centimetres high and gently rounded with stable slopes; in others they reach ～ 1 m in height and have a conical shape with slopes at angle of repose. A simple formation model suggests that these differences can be explained by local variations in water depth and sedimentation rate. Rapid colonization and stabilization of fresh sand surfaces by microbial mats composed of cyanobacteria, eukaryotic algae, and heterotrophic bacteria produces a complex intercalation of organic and sandy layers that are a distinctive form of modern stromatolites.