中国山区经济发展差异与非农产业的贡献

以地区 (市) 作为基本研究单元,选取大小兴安岭、燕山、太行山区、沂蒙山区、武陵山区、东南丘陵、喀斯特山区、横断山区、祁连山区等具有典型性的中国山区,定量分析2000年中国山区经济发展态势以及影响和制约山区经济发展的深层次因素,并与平原地区和经济发达地区进行宏观、中观层面上的多方位对比分析。结果显示: 中国山区人均GDP的区域变化特征与山区非农产业人均增加值发展态势呈正相关;各类山区农业产业人均增加值表现为一条无差异曲线,即山区居民家庭收入的差距,主要来自非农产业,农业产业收入退于次要地位,非农产业人均增加值决定中国山区的经济发展的空间分异。     

Long-distance atmospheric moisture dominates water budget in permafrost regions of the Central Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Precipitation plays an important role in permafrost hydrology; it can alter the hydrothermal condition of the active layer and even influence the permafrost aggradation or degradation. Moisture recycling from evaporation and transpiration can greatly contribute to local precipitation in some regions. This study selected four monitoring sites and used an isotope mixing model to investigate local moisture recycling in permafrost regions of the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The results showed that the local water vapour flux in the summer and autumn were dominantly influenced by westerlies and the Indian monsoon. Moistures for precipitation in Wudaoliang (WDL) and Fenghuoshan (FHS) mainly came from the western QTP, eastern Tianshan Mountains, western Qilian Mountains, and the surrounding regions. In comparsion, more than half of precipitation at Tanggula (TGL) was mostly sourced from the Indian monsoon. Local moisture recycling ratios at the four sites ranged from 14% ± 3.8% to 31.6% ± 4.8%, and depended on the soil moisture and relative humidity. In particular, the higher soil moisture and relative humidity promoted local moisture recycling, but frozen ground might be a potential influencing factor as well. The moisture recycling ratios of the study area were consistent with the results from both the Qinghai Lake Basin and the Nam Co Basin, but differed from those of the northwestern QTP. This difference may indirectly confirm the great spatial variability in precipitation on the QTP. Moreover, the rising air temperature and ground temperature, increasing precipitation, higher soil moisture, higher vegetation cover, and expanding lakes in the study area may be conductive to enhancing future local moisture recycling by altering ground surface conditions and facilitating the land surface evaporation and plant transpiration.     

Estimation of ground temperatures in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from climatic variables

Ground temperature is an important factor influencing ground source heat pumps, ground energy storage systems, land-atmosphere processes, and ecosystem dynamics. This paper presents an accurate development model (DM) based on a segment function: it can derive ground temperatures in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from air temperature in case of shallow soil depths and without using air temperature data in case of deep soil depths. Here, we applied this model to simulate the active layer and permafrost ground temperature at the Tanggula observation station. The DM results were compared with those from the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and multiple linear regressions (MLR) models, which were based on climatic variables from prior models and on ground temperatures derived from observations at different depths. The results revealed that the effect of air temperature on simulated ground temperatures decreased with increasing depth; moreover, ground temperatures fluctuated greatly within the shallow layers but remained rather stable with deeper layers. The results also indicated that the DM has the best performance for the estimation of soil temperature compared to the MLR, SVM, and ANN models. Finally, we obtained the three average statistics indexes, i.e., mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the normalized standard error (NSEE) at TGL site: they were equal to 0.51 °C, 0.63 °C, and 0.15 °C for the ground temperature of active layer and to 0.08 °C, 0.09 °C, and 0.07 °C for the permafrost temperature.     

FY-4A/AGRI传感器波段平均太阳辐照度计算及不确定性分析

传感器大气顶层波段平均太阳辐照度(Band-Averaged Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance,BAESI)是表观反射率和星上辐亮度之间转换的重要因子,为了针对FY-4A/AGRI有关通道较为准确地计算这一数值,分别以韩国COMS/GOCI、美国GEOS-16/ABI、日本Himawari-8/9/AHI传感器为例,利用国际上常用的6条太阳光谱曲线与传感器光谱响应函数参与计算BAESI,并与各传感器BAESI标准值进行比较。结果表明,Kurucz计算结果平均绝对误差与均方根误差均最小,是最理想的太阳光谱曲线,此外,Kurucz计算值与各传感器各波段BAESI标准值的最大偏差均小于4.5%,最大偏差百分比及对应波段分别为-2.39%(GOCI-band3)、1.49%(ABI-band6)、4.28%(AHI-08-band6)、4.42%(AHI-09-band6)。因此选择Kurucz太阳光谱曲线参与计算FY-4A/AGRI传感器各波段BAESI值,给出相应结果,并分析了计算值的不确定性,解决了将表观反射率转换为辐射亮度的困难。     

The Investigation Results of the April 12, 2014, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> = 4.5 Primorye Earthquake (Far Eastern Russia)

Primorye is a region with quite moderate shallow seismicity which has been insufficiently investigated so far in this respect. Based on the obtained instrumental data of regional seismic networks and macroseismic data collected in southwestern Primorye on the crustal earthquake with M = 4.5 occurred on April 12, 2014, we have first succeeded in determining the hypocenter parameters and the focal mechanism of the mainshock of this shallow earthquake and estimating the hypocenter parameters of the following aftershock.     

气候变化影响适应和脆弱性评估报告进展：IPCC AR5到AR6的新认知

IPCC第六次评估报告第二工作组(IPCC AR6 WGⅡ)重点关注气候变化的影响、风险、适应性和脆弱性。报告以最新的数据、翔实的证据、多元的方法定量评估了气候变化对自然和人类系统的影响。相比于AR5,AR6 WGⅡ取得了以下进展:1)内容上明确了气候变化的影响归因于人为气候强迫、非气候因子作用和天气敏感性识别等三类;气候变化带来的127个关键风险将变得广泛、普遍或不可逆转,将全球变暖限制在1.5℃,可大大减少气候变化对自然和人类系统的损失和破坏,指出来适应转型的重要性;2)在评估方法上,AR6采用了最新的SSPs和RCPs组合的SSPs情景,综合性更强;3) AR6对风险和解决方案的关注有所增加,并在AR5的基础上明确了5个“关注理由(RFCs)”的关键风险面临的风险水平将在较低的全球变暖水平上变为高到极高;4) AR6明确了气候行动的紧迫性,将适应和减缓相结合以支持气候恢复力(CRD)发展,指出了立即行动以应对气候风险的重要性和紧迫性。     

中国农户可持续生计研究进展及趋向

开展农户可持续生计研究,对于解决农村贫困问题,促进农村社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。在查阅大量相关文献的基础上,本文首先阐述了可持续生计的概念,并对国外农户可持续生计研究概况进行了简介;然后从生计资产(资本)研究、生计脆弱性分析、生计策略研究、政策、机构和过程对农户生计影响研究、农户生计与生态环境的相互关系研究等5 个方面对近年来国内农户生计的主要研究进展进行了归纳总结。最后,提出了中国农户可持续生计研究的主要趋向:跨学科综合性、系统性研究,新技术方法的综合与动态研究,农户可持续生计与贫困问题研究,城乡转型期农户可持续生计研究,重点区域的农户可持续生计研究。     

����GPS�����о���γ�Ȼ�����д��Ļ��

????GPS????о????γ???????д???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????13.7??0.6??5.8??0.5??7.1??1.0??12.7??0.2??25.4??0.5 mm/a???????????Σ?????????????????????????????????????29.2??1.8??14.1??1.0 mm/a?????????????????????????????????????????18.5??1.0??15.2??0.6 mm/a?????????????????????????????10.7??1.1 mm/a????γ????д????????????????????????л??????     

Elastic wave modelling method based on the displacement–velocity fields: an improving nearly analytic discrete approximation

In this paper, we present an improvement to our previously published nearly analytic discrete method (NADM) to solve acoustic and elastic wave equations. We compare the numerical errors of the improved NADM with the original NADM and also the fourth-order Lax–Wendroff correction and present examples of three-component wave fields in 2D transversely isotropic media with strong velocity contrasts. Comparing with the original NADM, we find that the improved method requires significantly less storage space and can increase the time accuracy from second order of the original NADM to fourth order, while the space accuracy remains the same as that of the original one. Theoretical analyses and numerical results suggest that our improved NADM is suitable for large-scale numerical modelling as it can effectively suppress numerical dispersion and source-generated noises caused by discretising wave equations when too-coarse grids are used.