地震临界丛集的判定及其应用

介绍了地震临界时间丛集的判定方法——时间结构变异诊断方法。把时间结构变异诊断方法运用于1999年岫岩地震序列及中国大陆强震活动特性研究，并按此方法预测了中国大陆未来大震可能发生的时间点。研究认为，时间结构变异诊断法不仅可以用作前震序列和余震序列以及正常震群活动的判断，同时也适用于区域地震活动状态的描述。震例研究表明，时间结构变异诊断法在地震预测中具有实际意义。     

川滇黔接壤地区发展战略若干问题探讨

川滇黔接壤地区作为一个整体开发其意义和效益超过各省分割开发。着眼未来，接壤区有可能建设成大西南的经济中心区，成为长江产业带的组成部分，成为我国资源型产业发达区和少数民族区的示范区。当前，该区存在几大矛盾或反差：区位中心与边远山区，丰富资源与落后经济；大量投资需求与财政拮据；资源开发与环境退化，现代化进程与人才和意识贫困；对外开放与环境退化，现代化进程与人才和意识贫困；对外开放与内陆封闭背景等。制定该区发展战略必须坚持实事求是原则，以资源开发为基础，强化产品深加工，坚持对外开放，发展通讯、交通，优化开发项目和投资，对该区实行优惠开发政策。     

三峡库区劳动就业态势与对策

本文首先详细分析了三峡库区的人口特点和库区劳动力资源及就业现状。在此基础上，本文探讨了库区劳动力就业与转移的对策，提出应发展乡镇企业，提高城市化水平，发展第三产业与市场农业，另外还应提高劳动者素质，组织劳务输出和建立库区劳动市场。     

2009—2015年ECMWF热带气旋集合预报的检验及分析

本文从四个方面检验分析了ECMWF 2009—2015年西北太平洋热带气旋集合平均预报性能。结果表明：集合预报对路径的预测能力逐年提高,对强度预报整体偏弱。随着热带气旋强度增强,集合预报对移速和移向的预测能力提高,而移向预报偏左、移速预报偏慢、强度预测偏弱的现象较明显。将影响热带气旋的引导气流分为偏强、中等、偏弱三类,引导气流偏弱时热带气旋移动偏慢,因此移向预报的不确定性大;而引导气流偏强时热带气旋移向明确,只是移速预报不稳定。进入南海的三类路径热带气旋,集合预报对西行、西北行两类的移速、移向预报效果较好,而西行后北折的预报较差,在热带气旋北折前,移向预报发散度很大,向北转折后移向趋于稳定,移速预报的误差相对较大。这几种情形的检验结果,在热带气旋集合预报的业务应用中值得注意。     

The Surface Energy Budget and Its Impact on the Freeze-thaw Processes of Active Layer in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The surface energy budget is closely related to freeze-thaw processes and is also a key issue for land surface process research in permafrost regions.In this study,in situ data collected from 2005 to 2015 at the Tanggula site were used to analyze surface energy regimes,the interaction between surface energy budget and freeze-thaw processes.The results confirmed that surface energy flux in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exhibited obvious seasonal variations.Annual average net radiation(R_n)for 2010 was 86.5 W m^-2,with the largest being in July and smallest in November.Surface soil heat flux(G₀)was positive during warm seasons but negative in cold seasons with annual average value of 2.7 W m^-2.Variations in R_n and G₀ were closely related to freeze-thaw processes.Sensible heat flux(H)was the main energy budget component during cold seasons,whereas latent heat flux(LE)dominated surface energy distribution in warm seasons.Freeze-thaw processes,snow cover,precipitation,and surface conditions were important influence factors for surface energy flux.Albedo was strongly dependent on soil moisture content and ground surface state,increasing significantly when land surface was covered with deep snow,and exhibited negative correlation with surface soil moisture content.Energy variation was significantly related to active layer thaw depth.Soil heat balance coefficient K was>1 during the investigation time period,indicating the permafrost in the Tanggula area tended to degrade.     

On the coupling between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: contributions to decadal drought anomalies in the Southwest China

Climate Dynamics - Under the exacerbation of climate change, climate extreme events, especially for drought, happened frequently and intensively across the globe with greater spatial differences....     

南秦岭耀岭河群裂谷型火山岩锆石U—Pb年代学

南秦岭耀岭河群以变质基性火山岩为主,夹少量酸性火山岩和碎屑岩。基性火山岩和凝灰岩的TIMS法锆石U-Pb同位素年龄分别为808Ma±6Ma和746Ma±2Ma,表明耀岭河群主体形成于南华纪,西峡-淅川一带所谓的“武当岩群”明显年轻于中元古代武当岩群,应该属于耀岭河群。耀岭河群大陆裂谷型火山岩是全球Rodinia超大陆在新元古代晚期南华纪裂解过程中的产物,反映秦岭造山带和Rodinia超大陆的形成演化密切相关。     

对我国产业发展战略的若干新思考

当前,我国经济发展面临经济全球化,生态化和知识经济的新挑战,在区域发展战略中,必须确立 下列新思维;（１）在产业布局中充分考虑生态与环境因素的影响和作用;（２）将产业结构调整的重点由一、二、三产业的高速转向产品结构的调整;