Intermediate time error growth and predictability: tropics versus mid-latitudes

The evolution of identical twin errors from an atmospheric general circulation model is studied in the linear range (small errors) through intermediate times and the approach to saturation. Between forecast day 1 and 7, the normalized error variance in the tropics is similar to that at higher latitudes. After that, tropical errors grow more slowly. The predictability time τ taken for tropical errors to reach half their saturation values is larger than that for mid-latitudes, especially for the planetary waves, thus implying greater potential predictability in the tropics.
The discrepancy between mid-latitude and tropical τ is more pronounced at 850 hPa than at 200 hPa, is largest for the planetary waves, and is more pronounced for errors arising from wave phase differences (than from wave amplitude differences).
The spectra of the error in 200 hPa zonal wind show that for forecast times up to about 5 d, the tropical error peaks at much shorter scales than the mid-latitude errors, but that subsequently tropical and mid-latitude error spectra look increasingly similar.
The difference between upper and lower level tropical τ may be due to the greater influence of mid-latitudes at the upper levels.     

The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and Climate Change Using a Coupled Model

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation （NPP） to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model （CanESM2） of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis （CCCma）, which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）. The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and-0.14 gC m^- 2 yr^-2, respec- tively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at -1.79 gC m^-2 yr^-2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and 0.84 gC m^-2 yr^-2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m^2 yr^-1 and 0.83 gC m^2 yr^-2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of-0.39 kg m^-2 yr^-1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration （experiment M2）, and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-     

地表城市热岛效应的概念内涵与定量刻画

明晰城市热岛（UHI）效应相关概念内涵、厘清其定量刻画方法是有效开展UHI效应研究的重要基础。全球城市化进程使UHI效应越发普遍,相关研究数量迅速增长并出现了UHI效应的多样认知,尤其对具有空间异质性表征优势的地表城市热岛（SUHI）效应开发了多样的定量刻画方法,但目前尚缺乏对其定量刻画方法的系统梳理。因此,本文对城市热岛、城市热岛效应、地表温度和城市热环境等易混淆概念进行了辨析,总结了各类UHI典型空间位置和尺度范围。在SUHI效应定量刻画中,将SUHI范围识别方法归结为城乡温度阈值、温度等级阈值、高斯拟合参数、温度衰减突变四大类,指出当前SUHI范围识别研究侧重于对SUHI影响规模的认知。研究同时对各类范围识别方法所对应的SUHI强度表征指标进行了梳理,认为理解指标本质内涵是掌握指标间潜在差异的前提。未来研究应整合多维度数据以突破单一SUHI监测途径,发展大尺度SUHI定量刻画方法以拓展定量研究的广度,认知连通化SUHI空间形态以挖掘范围识别研究的深度。     

接地电阻随季节及天气过程变化规律分析

为了解框架结构建筑物基础接地电阻的季节变化特征及天气过程对其变化的影响,分析了2010年广州从化气象局框架建筑物基础接地电阻和相关气象要素的自动气象站观测资料。从季节变化特征来看,框架结构接地电阻相对较为稳定,月平均值2月最大为0.78 Ω,9月份最小为0.57 Ω,全年变化最大值约为0.21 Ω。统计季节变化曲线和暴雨过程发现,接地体电阻与1.5 m土壤温度和1.0 m土壤含水量呈现明显的负相关,接地电阻减小值与暴雨的强度无明显的相关性。文中还对较长时间无降水的干旱过程进行了分析,结果表明：干旱时框架结构接地电阻值有明显的上升趋势,尤其在夏季,干旱对接地电阻影响较大。     

Extension and subsidence of the Pearl River Mouth Basin, northern South China Sea

Abstract The uniform stretching model has been applied to seismic reflection profiles and well-log information from the Pearl River Mouth Basin on the northern flank of the South China Sea. Stretching factors were calculated from subsidence curves determined from the stratigraphy by using the backstripping technique to remove the effects of compaction and sediment loading. Variations in rift topography, palaeobathymetry and global sea-level v/ere taken into account. We argue that the Pearl River Mouth Basin formed by lithospheric extension by a factor of about 1.8, lasting from Late Cretaceous to late Oligocene times. Stretching factors calculated from subsidence agree with those determined from the geometry of normal faulting and from crustal thinning. Thus there is no indication of a significant discrepancy between the different estimates of stretching. The geometry of faulting suggests that considerable amounts of local footwall uplift occurred during the rifting period. Small differences between the observed and calculated subsidence curves (∽ 400 m in the middle Miocene) are best explained by minor amounts of extension ( β ∽ 1.1). The time-temperature history of sediments within the basin has also been calculated so that expected vitrinite reflectance and oil abundance could be determined. The results are consistent with each other and are in reasonable agreement with observations from wells.     

黏声介质平面波有限差分叠前深度偏移及在莺歌海盆地的应用

莺琼盆地诸探区中存在底劈现象,深层气源产生的气体沿底劈产生的裂隙通道向上漫溢.漫溢过程中,一是充填在遇到的砂体中形成气藏;二是弥漫在上溢通道中,使得通道中的纵波速度发生变化,进而纵波波阻抗差异变小,反射变弱.另外,通道中气体的存在,会加强地层的吸收衰减,使得地震波振幅变弱、高频成分损失导致同相轴分辨率降低.利用OBC数据进行多波地震勘探和利用黏声介质的叠前深度偏移都是改善模糊区成像质量的重要方法技术.为此,本文提出用黏声介质平面波有限差分法叠前深度偏移成像方法改善气体充填区域的成像质量.黏声介质成像目的是补偿地震波的吸收衰减;平面波偏移成像目的是适应海上单炮数量巨大,提高波动方程叠前深度偏移成像的效率;有限差分法叠前偏移的目的是适应该区浅层气分布局域性极强、Q值的空间变化大的情况.在莺歌海某探区的实际数据上的黏声介质平面波有限差分叠前深度偏移试验证明,本方法是改善模糊区成像质量的较为有效的途径.     

塔里木盆地塔北露头区的古岩溶发育模式

目前塔里木盆地海相碳酸盐岩的油气勘探已进入高峰期,为弥补钻井岩心资料不足,进一步认识井下岩溶发育规律及发育模式特征,开展塔北露头区奥陶系风化壳古岩溶缝洞系统发育特征及发育模式研究。研究表明,岩溶发育主要受控于岩性因素和不整合面,主要发育层位为一间房组地层;主要岩溶作用期为吐木休克组／一间房组沉积间断岩溶期。为井下岩溶缝洞系统的认识及岩溶地质模型的建立提供了重要理论依据。     

全球变暖背景下新疆地区近45 a来最大冻土深度变化及其突变分析

利用覆盖新疆大部分地区资料完整的93个站点资料,对1961-2005年新疆地区最大冻土深度进行了分析. 结果表明：新疆地区月最大冻土深度有明显的季节变化,低海拔区域(海拔<1 800 m)最大值出现在1月份,而高海拔区域(海拔≥1 800 m)的最大值出现在2月份,比低海拔区域要滞后. 新疆地区最大冻土深度的地理分布特征表现为北疆深于南疆,山区深于平原,且与气温的分布有很好的一致性. 全年和冬、春季最大冻土深度与气温场的空间相关系数分别为-0.795、-0.736和-0.848. 年际变化表明,近45 a来的最大冻土深度出现了较为明显的下降. 高海拔区域与低海拔区域年最大冻土深度的倾向率分别为-15.65 cm·(10a)^-1和-9.48 cm·(10a)^-1,且与气温的相关系数分别为-0.51和-0.69,均通过了0.001的信度检验. 同时发现,高海拔区域冬季下降多,而低海拔区域春季下降多. 新疆地区年最大冻土深度在近45 a有明显的突变现象,高海拔区域和低海拔区域突变发生年份分别为1996/1997年度和1978/1979年度,说明新疆地区高海拔区域的年最大冻土深度对气温变化的响应比低海拔区域要滞后. 突变年后高海拔区域与低海拔区域年最大冻土深度比突变年前的平均值分别降低了61.12 cm和26.67 cm.     

南京长江新济洲群湿地保护与恢复规划设计

以南京长江新济洲群湿地为例,分析了在长江中下游开展洲滩湿地生态恢复的重要意义和必要性,在分析了南京长江新济洲群湿地退化现状及其驱动因素的基础上,对其保护和恢复规划设计进行了探讨,希望为长江中下游洲滩湿地的保护和生态恢复提供思路和借鉴。     

赣西北大雾塘钨矿区地质特征及Re-Os同位素年代学研究

通过对大湖塘钨矿田的大雾塘钨矿区辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年代学的研究,测得辉钼矿的w(Re)为0.3368×10~(-6)~8.256×10~(-6),获得的5个模式年龄比较一致,介于(136.6±2.2)Ma~(138.4±2.4)Ma,加权平均年龄为(137.7±2.7)Ma(MSWD=0.07)。将5个模式年龄进行等时线年龄计算,获得一条相关性较好的~(187)Re-~(187)Os等时线,计算得到辉钼矿Re-Os等时线年龄为(137.9±2.0)Ma(MSWD=0.20),与加权平均年龄一致,可代表辉钼矿的形成年龄。结合石门寺和狮尾洞矿区典型矿床地质、地球化学特征和成岩作用时空关系,认为大雾塘矿床的形成是大湖塘钨矿田的第二期次(140 Ma)大规模成矿作用的产物,2期成矿作用可能是大湖塘钨矿田巨量成矿元素堆积的重要原因之一。