2009年度大气科学领域项目评审与研究成果分析

1 2009年项目申请、送审与资助情况 2009年地球科学五处共受理各类项目768项(表1),其中,面上项目382项,青年科学基金254项,地区科学基金37项,上述3类项目共673项;"天气与气候系统变化过程与机制"优先发展领域重点项目18项(均为大气学科),"全球变化及其区域响应"优先发展领域重点项目41项(其中大气学科11项);国家杰出青年科学基金24项,海外及港澳学者合作研究基金5项,共计29项;创新研究群体科学基金3项;科学仪器专项基金3项;联合资助基金1项.     

东亚地区陆地植被净初级生产力与夏季气候的模拟

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)一个海洋-大气-动态植被耦合模式(GOALS-AVIM),进行了100年模拟积分.基于模拟结果,对东亚地区的植被净初级生产力(NPP)、降水、地面气温和短波辐射的季节变化进行了标准化对比,分析了NPP的时空格局与气候因子(气温、短波辐射和降水)的关系;利用奇异值分解(SVD)对东亚夏季降水场和NPP的关系进行分解.结果表明,夏季东亚地区植被NPP及相关气候因子的时空变化规律明显,耦合模式可以很好地模拟出观测存在的降水及NPP、LAI(叶面积指数)大值区随季节北移南退的形态;由于耦合模式中AVIM的双向特点,模式模拟的NPP与其他物理场的季节变化有很强的对应关系,而且在不同时间和地区,NPP与降水、地面气温、短波辐射表现出不同的对应关系,其中植被NPP时间变化与气温和降水的相关性都较高;从NPP场和降水场夏季逐月标准化距平奇异值分解的空间分布模态来看.NPP与降水在时空场上表现出很强的耦合性,NPP的空间格局与降水存在较好的相关性,不同地理位置的相关性强弱不同,分解出的降水场异常相关模态也再现了东亚夏季降水移动的时空特征,同时东亚雨带随季节变化与NPP的气候变率表现出不同的对应模态.     

一个海陆气耦合模式中大气-植被的年际变化及其相互作用

含有动态植被过程的陆面模式Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model(AVIM)与中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(IAP/LASG)的9层大气环流模式AGCM 及20层的海洋环流模式(OGCM)耦合,建立了一个全球模式(GoALS-AVIM)并进行100年的模拟积分.后40年的结果分析表明,该耦合模式能够合理地模拟大气及陆地生态系统显著的年际变化.用奇异值分解(SVD)分析了东亚地区植被生长和气候变化的相互关系,发现在东业区域的植被净初级生产力(NPP)强弱的变化对血着大气环流的变化,特别是NPP分别与850 hPa的风场和500 hPa的高度场表现出很强的时空一致性.在东亚地区,由于植被类型的不同,导致NPP年际变化与降水、表面气温、短波辐射的年际变化的相关性不同,它们的年际变化与相关物理量场的年际变化表现出很强的植物种类的区别.     

珠江口盆地惠州地区A区块碳酸盐岩油气储层预测

珠江口盆地珠江组碳酸盐岩油藏在近年取得了勘探新突破,如LF15-1油藏的成功评价,极大地鼓舞了区域碳酸盐岩勘探。由于碳酸盐岩储层非均质性强、分布复杂,受古地形、沉积环境、成岩作用叠合影响,储层评价困难。笔者在前人研究的碳酸盐岩地层速度和储层孔隙度呈线性关系成果的基础上,充分挖潜地震资料计算碳酸盐岩地层速度对研究区储层发育区进行宏观分析,结合叠前叠后联合相控反演进行碳酸盐岩储层精细刻画,在研究区评价出3个有利储层发育区,识别出有利储层Ⅰ区是一个规模超过12km2的岩性圈闭,为区域后续勘探奠定了良好基础。     

Carbonate ramp depositional systems from a late Jurassic epeiric platform (Iberian Basin, Spain): a combined computer modelling and outcrop analysis

No counterparts to epeiric-sea carbonate ramps are known in present-day environments. This hinders the interpretation of the factors controlling the growth and evolution of these depositional settings. In this study we analyse the facies and geometries of two Jurassic examples both from outcrop study and through computer modelling. This analysis is constrained by two important features of these Oxfordian and Kimmeridgian ramps: firstly, they are very well exposed, allowing accurate reconstruction of a 200-km section from proximal to distal ramp environments, and, secondly, a time framework for correlation, section reconstruction and modelling is provided by a well-defined ammonite biostratigraphy. The modelling results in a synthetic stratigraphy which closely matches the reconstructed cross-sections and, when integrated with the field study, constrains and provides additional quantitative data on the following aspects of carbonate ramp systems. Resedimentation by storms is an important process in maintaining the ramp profile through time. Down-ramp transport distances of between 25 and 40 km are indicated from the distribution of storm beds and shallow-water allochems and from model-matching known stratigraphic thicknesses and geometries. Modelling sediment production within the time constraints from the ammonite biozones indicates that shallow-water carbonate production was 1–2 orders of magnitude less than that predicted for present-day open-marine carbonate platforms. Deeper-water production rates were reduced by lesser amounts. These proportionally higher, outer-ramp production rates also help to maintain ramp geometries through time. The enigmatic slope crest of ramps is shown to result from a combination of higher, shallow-water production and erosion rates, together with loss of accommodation during highstands and high-stillstands in the modelled sea-level curves. The most parsimonious modelling of the two ramp sequences comes from a relative sea-level curve composed of a linear subsidence component superposed by 20- and 100-kyr cycles on a third-order cycle. The third-order cycles and their timing do not correspond to those of the Exxon curve.     

Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to El Ni?o in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Gross primary production (GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5° × 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical El Ni?o years indicated that GPP response to El Ni?o varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase, it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China (32°–38°N, 111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley (28°–32°N, 111°–122°E); in contrast, when PDO was in the warm phase, the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two regions. The consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this phenomenon. The previously published findings on how El Ni?o during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and El Ni?o in this study theoretically credible. This paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types, but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of El Ni?o and PDO.     

喜马拉雅山南地区地热水和钙华地球化学特征与成因机制

喜马拉雅山南地区拥有丰富的地热资源。开展地热水和钙华成因机制的研究,有助于了解地热资源特征和古气候变迁信息,对丰富山南地热资源的系统性研究和青藏高原气候环境变化研究均具有重要理论意义。本文以喜马拉雅东段山南地区的邛多江、古堆和曲卓木的三个温泉为研究对象,通过采集温泉地热水和钙华数据,综合分析了地热水水-岩作用特征、热储温度估算、补给来源追溯和温泉钙华的成因类型、形成年代、古气候意义等。结果表明：邛多江温泉的水化学类型为HCO₃·Cl-Na·Ca型;古堆日若沸泉的水化学类型为HCO₃·SO₄-Ca·Na型;古堆茶卡沸泉的水化学类型为Cl-Na型;曲卓木热泉的水化学类型为Cl·SO₄-Na·Ca型。温泉地热水中的阴阳离子来源主要是硅酸盐岩的溶解以及部分碳酸盐岩和盐岩的溶解。由于温泉地热水均未达到水-岩平衡状态,利用石英地热温标得出浅部热储温度为129～148℃,利用硅-焓图解得出深部热储温度和冷水混合比例为181～221℃和58%～65%;氢氧同位素显示地热水补给高程为4467～5303 m。在山南地区,地热水受到高海拔大气降水和冰雪融水的补给,通过主要断裂构造运移到深部加热并在高温高压下沿着裂隙、节理上升,然后与浅层冷水混合,最后沿浅部地表松散破碎带出露形成温泉。温泉钙华CaO占比43.43%～56.66%,且显示出轻稀土元素富集的特点;δ¹³C指示温泉钙华为热成因,钙华中的碳主要来自于深部碳酸盐岩的变质成因,仅古堆日若沸泉有部分地幔碳;¹⁴C测年显示钙华的年龄为21280±70～43500年,Mg/Ca、Mg/Sr比值指示降雨量在43.50 ka年由峰值迅速减弱,并在42 ka～21.28 ka年期间降雨量又逐渐增强。     

支持向量机组合方法在砂泥岩储层岩性识别中的应用

岩性是表征储油物性、建立各类地质模型的重要参数,其与测井参数的函数关系很复杂。基于支持向量机一类对一类法对岩性识别分类精度不高的现状,结合二叉树法初始分类精度较高、分类速度快等优点,提出了一种新的组合方法——一类对一类法与二叉树法的结合应用。该方法对样本数据较少的类别设置权重系数,减少样本不平衡的影响,并利用几何平均准确率作为评价岩心识别效果的指标,其对岩性的分类效果远优于单一方法。具体步骤为:首先对不均衡的样本设置相应的权重系数,然后利用二叉树法将易于与砂泥岩区分的灰岩区分开来,再利用一对一分类法将剩下的砂泥岩样本进行分类。运用此方法对某油田测井数据进行岩性分类,分类的整体准确率以及几何平均准确率均有很大的提高。     

碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究进展与方法探究

碳排放和减碳的社会经济影响与代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,本文综合分析了全球范围内碳排放与减碳社会经济影响的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,基于卫星最新观测到的全球CO₂非均匀分布的事实,针对温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景,探讨了全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布与地表温度时空关系,全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布状况下主要国家碳排放空间评价以及温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景下中国碳排放和减碳社会经济代价评估等问题可采取的技术模型方案,并提出了构建新气候变化经济学的理论方法与技术体系。本文构建的技术路线和研究方法拟为国家制订各项应对碳排放和减碳战略与对策、减缓气候变化并实现可持续转型、提升中国在应对气候变化领域的国际话语权等方面提供决策支持。     

肇庆台数字化地磁观测资料震磁关系的分析研究

使用肇庆地磁台2003～2005年的高精度数字化地磁观测资料,采用地磁短周期转换函数、加卸载响应比等方法,系统地分析研究了肇庆地磁台周边地区在此期间的震磁异常对应关系。研究结果表明,在2004年9月17日阳江M_L 5．2级地震前,肇庆地磁台的地磁短周期转换函数A、B,加卸载响应比P(Z)均有比较明显的前兆异常。该异常具有中期异常特征,而对临震异常特征识别则不好区分和把握。