Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions

Coalbed methane (CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin (SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure (RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.     

An Innovative Bias-Correction Approach to CMA-GD Hourly QuantitativePrecipitation Forecasts

This paper proposes a simple and powerful optimal integration (OPI) method for improving hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, 0-24 h) of a single-model by integrating the benefits of different bias- corrected methods using the high-resolution CMA-GD model from the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Three techniques are used to generate multi-method calibrated members for OPI: deep neural network (DNN), frequency-matching (FM), and optimal threat score (OTS). The results are as follows: (1) The QPF using DNN follows the basic physical patterns of CMA-GD. Despite providing superior improvements for clear-rainy and weak precipitation, DNN cannot improve the predictions for severe precipitation, while OTS can significantly strengthen these predictions. As a result, DNN and OTS are the optimal members to be incorporated into OPI. (2) Our new approach achieves state-of-the-art performances on a single model for all magnitudes of precipitation. Compared with the CMA-GD, OPI improves the TS by 2.5%, 5.4%, 7.8%, 8.3%, and 6.1% for QPFs from clear-rainy to rainstorms in the verification dataset. Moreover, OPI shows good stability in the test dataset. (3) It is also noted that the rainstorm pattern of OPI relies heavily on the original model and that OPI cannot correct for deviations in the location of severe precipitation. Therefore, improvements in predicting severe precipitation using this method should be further realized by improving the numerical model’s forecasting capability.     

GIS多准则的城市垃圾楼空间布局优化选址

针对城市公共设施的传统选址方法较少考虑空间维度因素的问题,该文提出了基于地理信息系统(GIS)多准则的城市公共设施选址模型,利用GIS多准则技术基于空间维度分析了城市自然环境和人文要素等综合影响下的公共设施选址方法,并以城市垃圾楼选址为例进行了实例应用。实验结果表明:该方法不仅充分考虑了城市复杂的地理环境,还深度探究了影响城市公共设施选址的综合性因素。     

路网距离约束的GTWR模型应用——以北京市房价为例

针对传统地理加权回归方法无法解决时空非平稳性的问题,该文提出了一种路网距离约束的时空地理加权回归方法。引入时间特性,进一步把握了不同因子在时空维度影响的分异性;以路网距离度量约束,提高模型解释力。以北京市城6区1980—2015年的1 632个住宅小区特征价格数据为例,通过与直线距离约束的常规地理加权回归方法等进行比较,采用各模型的AIC与拟合优度等指标对模型置信水平高低进行评价。实验结果表明,路网距离约束的地理加权回归模型不仅能够提高模型的拟合精度,还能更好地揭示房价在时间与空间方面的变化规律。     

参数优化DBSCAN算法的城管案件聚类分析

针对DBSCAN算法参数对聚类结果具有较大的不确定性问题,该文提出了基于空间分析的参数优化思想:首先,基于Ripley’s K函数分析,实现自适应确定数据聚类范围EPS值;基于K-D树分析,实现自适应确定在Eps阈值内的点数量MinPts值;然后,基于以上参数的自适应确定思想,利用R语言编写了DBSCAN算法,进一步实现了数据的精确聚类。基于典型城市管理案件的实验结果表明:该方法充分考虑了空间数据统计特性,具有较好的适用性,聚类簇特征明显,聚类质量较高。     

AHP-灰色关联度分析法的耕地质量评价——以湖北省襄阳市为例

针对传统耕地质量评价方法的单一性和局限性,该文提出一种将层次分析法与灰色关联度分析法融合的主客观相结合的耕地质量评定新方法。依据第一次全国地理国情普查数据成果,选取湖北省襄阳市作为研究区,建立试点区耕地质量综合评价指标体系,并对评价结果的可靠性进行验证。结果表明,该方法对耕地质量评价是科学有效的,能为耕地合理规划提出相关建议。     

Improved decentralized multi-sensor navigation system for airborne applications

The integration of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) technologies is a very useful navigation option for high-accuracy positioning in many applications. However, its performance is still limited by GNSS satellite availability and satellite geometry. To address such limitations, a non-GNSS-based positioning technology known as “Locata” is used to augment a standard GNSS/INS system. The conventional methods for multi-sensor integration can be classified as being either in the form of centralized Kalman filtering (CKF), or decentralized Kalman filtering. However, these two filtering architectures are not always ideal for real-world applications. To satisfy both accuracy and reliability requirements, these three integration algorithms—CKF, federated Kalman filtering (FKF) and an improved decentralized filtering, known as global optimal filtering (GOF)—are investigated. In principle, the GOF is derived from more information resources than the CKF and FKF algorithms. These three algorithms are implemented in a GPS/Locata/INS integrated navigation system and evaluated using data obtained from a flight test. The experimental results show that the position, velocity and attitude solution derived from the GOF-based system indicate improvements of 30, 18.4 and 20.8% over the CKF- and FKF-based systems, respectively.     

2016年四川省PM2.5浓度时空分布研究

PM2.5导致大气能见度下降,造成雾霾天气.本文基于2016年四川省89个空气质量监测站的PM2.5数据,对2016年四川省PM2.5浓度时空分布特征进行研究分析.结果表明,2016年四川省PM2.5浓度空间分布呈现出西北部PM2.5浓度较低、空气质量较好,东南部PM2.5浓度较高、空气质量较差的趋势;时间分布呈现夏季PM2.5浓度较低、空气质量较好,冬季PM2.5浓度较高、空气质量较差的趋势,从而得出四川省PM2.5浓度时间和空间分布规律及分布图.