The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

 We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell (∼20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell (∼20–60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20–30%. 6These differences suggest that the mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation. Received: 16 September 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

Bol’shakovskii gabbro massif as a fragment of the Southern Urals zone of Early Carboniferous rift

In this paper new data on the absolute age and geochemistry of rocks of the Bol’shakovskii massif, situated in the central part of the Aramil-Sukhteli zone of the Southern Urals, are given. The obtained values are evidence for its Visean age. By the geological-petrographic and petro- and geochemical features, the rocks of the Bol’shakovskii complex differ sharply from ophiolite-type gabbroids, although they reveal a substantial similarity with the gabbro-granite formation of the Magnitogorsk megazone. The Bol’shakovskii massif is situated in the northern branch of the South Urals zone of Early Carboniferous riftogenesis; and its formation is most probably associated with magmatism events during the rift regime in the died_out island arc.     

Digital Image Based Approach for Three-Dimensional Mechanical Analysis of Heterogeneous Rocks

Summary This paper presents a digital image based approach for three-dimensional (3-D) numerical simulation and failure analysis of rocks by taking into account the actual 3-D heterogeneity. Digital image techniques are adopted to extract two-dimensional (2-D) material heterogeneity from material surface images. The 2-D image mesostructures are further extrapolated to 3-D cuboid mesostructures by assuming the material surface as a representation of the inner material heterogeneity within a very small depth. The iterative milling and scanning system is set up to generate the 3-D rock mesostructures. A Hong Kong granite specimen is used as an example to demonstrate the procedure of 3-D mesostructure establishment. The mechanical responses and failure process under the conventional Brazilian tensile test condition are examined through numerical analyses. The stress distribution, crack propagation process and failure model of heterogeneous material cases are simulated with a finite difference software. The numerical results indicate that material heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the failure behavior of rocks under external loading.     

Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Automated Image Registration for Hydrologic Change Detection in the Lake-Rich Arctic

Multitemporal remote sensing provides a unique tool to track lake dynamics at the pan-Arctic scale but requires precise registration of thousands of satellite images. This is a challenging task owing to a dearth of stable features to be used as tie points [(TPs), i.e., control points] in the dynamic landscapes. This letter develops an automated method to precisely register images in the lake-rich Arctic. The core premise of the method is that the centers of lakes are generally stable even if their shorelines are not. The proposed procedures first extract lakes in multitemporal satellite images, derive lake centroids and match them between images, and then use the centroids of stable lakes as TPs for image registration. The results show that this approach can achieve subpixel registration accuracy, outcompeting the conventional manual methods in both efficiency and accuracy. The proposed method is fully automated and represents a feasible way to register images for lake change detection at the pan-Arctic scale.      

Biogeochemical cycles of carbon, sulfur, and free oxygen in a microbial mat

Complete budgets for carbon and oxygen have been constructed for cyanobacterial mats dominated by Microcoleus chthonoplastes from the evaporating ponds of a salt works located in Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Included in the budget are measured rates of O2 production, sulfate reduction, and elemental exchange across the mat/brine interface, day and night, at various temperatures and times of the year. We infer from this data the various sinks for O2, as well as the sources of carbon for primary production. To summarize, although seasonal variability exists, a major percentage of the O2 produced during the day did not diffuse out of the mat but was used within the mat to oxidize both organic carbon and the sulfide produced by sulfate reduction. At night, most of the O2 that diffused into the mat was used to oxidize sulfide, with O2 respiration of minor importance. During the day, the internal mat processes of sulfate reduction and O2 respiration generated as much or more inorganic carbon (DIC) for primary production as diffusion into the mat. Also, oxygenic photosynthesis was the most important process of carbon fixation, although anoxygenic photosynthesis may have been important at low light levels during some times of the year. At night, the DIC lost from the mat was mostly from sulfate reduction. Elemental fluxes across the mat/brine interface indicated that carbon with an oxidation state of greater than zero was taken up by the mat during the day and liberated from the mat at night. Overall, carbon with an average oxidation state of near zero accumulated in the mat. Both carbon fixation and carbon oxidation rates varied with temperature by a similar amount. These mats are thus closely coupled systems where rapid rates of photosynthesis both require and fuel rapid rates of heterotrophic carbon oxidation.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.