Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

Implementation of a non-hydrostatic, adaptive-grid dynamics core in CAM3. Part I: comparison of dynamics cores in aqua-planet simulations

We report on our implementation of EULAG as a dynamical core in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG’s name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over the existing dynamical cores in CAM. This paper uses a series of aqua-planet simulations to demonstrate that CAM-EULAG results compare favorably with those from CAM simulations at standard CAM resolution that use current finite volume or Eulerian-spectral dynamical core options. We also show that the grid adaptivity implemented in CAM3-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection.     

Climate during the last glacial maximum in the Wasatch and southern Uinta Mountains inferred from glacier modeling

Recent improvements in understanding glacial extents and chronologies in the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains and other mountain ranges in the western U.S. call for a more detailed approach to using glacier reconstructions to infer paleoclimates than commonly applied AAR-ELA-ÄT methods. A coupled 2-D mass balance and ice-flow numerical modeling approach developed by [Plummer, M.A., Phillips, F.M., 2003. A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features. Quaternary Science Reviews 22, 1389–1406] allows exploration of the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation and many secondary parameters on past ice extents in alpine settings. We apply this approach to the Little Cottonwood Canyon in the Wasatch Mountains and the Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons in the south-central Uinta Mountains. Results of modeling experiments indicate that the Little Cottonwood glacier required more precipitation during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than glaciers in the Uinta Mountains, assuming lapse rates were similar to modern. Model results suggest that if temperatures in the Wasatch Mountains and Uinta Mountains were  6 °C to 7 °C colder than modern, corresponding precipitation changes were  3 to 2× modern in Little Cottonwood Canyon and  2 to 1× modern in Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons. Greater amounts of precipitation in the Little Cottonwood Canyon likely reflect moisture derived from the surface of Lake Bonneville, and the lake may have also affected the mass balance of glaciers in the Uinta Mountains.     

Low-amplitude, synsedimentary folding of a deltaic complex: Roda Sandstone (lower Eocene), South-Pyrenean Foreland Basin

The South‐Pyrenean Foreland Basin is a sedimentary trough developed during Palaeogene times in response Pyrenean orogenesis. The structural development of the chain progressively involved the foreland basin deposits resulting in synsedimentary thrusting and growth of folds through the basin. The lower Eocene Roda Sandstone was deposited in a shallow‐marine environment whose topography (bathymetry) was modified by a series of growing gentle folds. This synsedimentary folding is evidenced in the field (i) thickening of sedimentary units above synclinal structures and thinning over anticlines; (ii) carbonate platform deposits growing on top of anticlines; (iii) the areal distribution of benthic foraminifera in transgressive facies assemblages determined by an irregular, fold‐influenced palaeobathymetry; (iv) variation of sandstone palaeocurrents related to the presence of a sedimentary trough formed by the synsedimentary growth of a syncline. In addition, synsedimentary folding has been evidenced from seismic data. In the Roda Sandstone example, the growth of gentle folds occurred in an area with high sedimentation rates (～0.21 ± 0.06 mm y^?1). Due to the high sedimentation rates, exceeding the folds uplift rate (～0.10 ± 0.01 mm y^?1), there are no noticeable unconformities in the growth strata at outcrop scale. However, the effects on the sedimentation are very significant, because the sediments were deposited close to sea level, and thus were very sensitive to fauna and facies distribution.     

A Multi-Observatory Inter-Comparison of Line-of-Sight Synoptic Solar Magnetograms

The observed photospheric magnetic field is a crucial parameter for understanding a range of fundamental solar and heliospheric phenomena. Synoptic maps, in particular, which are derived from the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and built up over a period of 27 days, are the main driver for global numerical models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. Yet, in spite of 60 years of measurements, quantitative estimates remain elusive. In this study, we compare maps from seven solar observatories (Stanford/WSO, NSO/KPVT, NSO/SOLIS, NSO/GONG, SOHO/MDI, UCLA/MWO, and SDO /HMI) to identify consistencies and differences among them. We find that while there is a general qualitative consensus, there are also some significant differences. We compute conversion factors that relate measurements made by one observatory to another using both synoptic map pixel-by-pixel and histogram-equating techniques, and we also estimate the correlation between datasets. For example, Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) synoptic maps must be multiplied by a factor of 3?–?4 to match Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) estimates. Additionally, we find no evidence that the MWO saturation correction factor should be applied to WSO data, as has been done in previous studies. Finally, we explore the relationship between these datasets over more than a solar cycle, demonstrating that, with a few notable exceptions, the conversion factors remain relatively constant. While our study was able to quantitatively describe the relationship between the datasets, it did not uncover any obvious “ground truth.” We offer several suggestions for how this may be addressed in the future.     

A chironomid-based reconstruction of late glacial summer temperatures in the southern Carpathians (Romania)

Late glacial and early Holocene summer temperatures were reconstructed based on fossil chironomid assemblages at Lake Brazi (Retezat Mountains) with a joint Norwegian–Swiss transfer function, providing an important addition to the late glacial quantitative climate reconstructions from Europe. The pattern of the late glacial temperature changes in Lake Brazi show both similarities and some differences from the NGRIP δ¹⁸O record and other European chironomid-based reconstructions. Our reconstruction indicates that at Lake Brazi (1740 m a.s.l.) summer air temperature increased by ~ 2.8°C at the Oldest Dryas/Bølling transition (GS-2/GI-1) and reached 8.1–8.7°C during the late glacial interstade. The onset of the Younger Dryas (GS-1) was characterized by a weak (< 1°C) decrease in chironomid-inferred temperatures. Similarly, at the GS-1/Holocene transition no major changes in summer temperature were recorded. In the early Holocene, summer temperature increased in two steps and reached ~ 12.0–13.3°C during the Preboreal. Two short-term cold events were detected during the early Holocene between 11,480–11,390 and 10,350–10,190 cal yr BP. The first cooling coincides with the Preboreal oscillation and shows a weak (0.7°C) temperature decrease, while the second is characterized by 1°C cooling. Both cold events coincide with cooling events in the Greenland ice core records and other European temperature reconstructions.     

Scale interaction in the Western Pacific Monsoon

Summary The lower-tropospheric scale interactions occurring in the summer monsoon of the western North Pacific are reviewed and summarised in a conceptual model. Diabatic heating produces a circulation with similar characteristics to those that are observed. In the lower troposphere the advection of vorticity by the divergent wind produces a compact, and more intense response than in the upper levels. Subsequent phase dispersion westward, and group propagation eastwards, lead to a monsoon depression in convectively suppressed conditions, a westerly jet with cross-equatorial flow, and a strong confluence region to the east of the monsoon depression.I suggest that this confluence zone traps tropical waves in the mid-lower troposphere in a similar manner to the accumulation and emanation mechanisms described by Chang and Webster. The details of the convection in the confluence zone are of little direct consequence to the monsoon circulation, which is similar in scale to the deformation radius for the undisturbed tropics. However, mesoscale convective systems can both self organise into larger coherent structures and produce vortices of horizontal scale 100–200 km, which are long-lived and potentially have considerable indirect influence on both the monsoon and embedded systems, such as tropical cyclones. The confluence zone provides an excellent environment for tropical cyclone formation, which is enhanced by the presence of a previously developed tropical cyclone. Scale-interaction arising from the merger of developing vortices and the large monsoon depression can lead to development of a very large typhoon and rapid breakdown of the total monsoon circulation. The interaction of tropical cyclones with the mid-latitude systems is complex and not well understood, but recurving tropical cyclones may provide a major component of the emanation of energy to higher latitudes.With 16 Figures     

The pressure dependence of the zirconium-in-rutile thermometer

The solubility of ZrO₂ in rutile is strongly temperature-dependent and has been identified as a potentially powerful thermometer when the rutile coexists with an appropriate buffer assemblage, e.g. zircon + quartz. In combination with experimental data at 10 kbar, previous consideration of data on natural rutile has not identified a pressure dependence for the thermometer. However, the expected volume change as a result of substitution of the larger Zr⁴⁺ cation for Ti⁴⁺ suggests that the Zr content of rutile should decrease with increasing pressure. To investigate the pressure dependence of the thermometer, piston cylinder (at 10, 20 & 30 kbar) and 1 atm furnace experiments were performed in the system ZrO₂-TiO₂-SiO₂. The solubility of ZrO₂ in rutile, in the presence of zircon and quartz was reversed at each pressure value. From these experiments, the thermodynamics of the end-member reaction ZrSiO₄ = SiO₂ + ZrO₂ (in rutile) have been determined. There is a secondary pressure effect accompanying the primary temperature dependence of the Zr content of rutile. New thermometer equations are, in the α -quartz field: in the β -quartz field and in the coesite field in which φ is ppm Zr, P is in kbar and R is the gas constant, 0.0083144 kJ K⁻¹. Thermometric results using these equations are shown for a range of geological settings.