Risk Assessment and Disaster Management for Natural and Anthropogenically Induced Geologic Hazards: Application to the Preolkhon Region,Western Lake Baikal,Siberia, Russia

In the Western Lake Baikal, recent Baikal Rift's tectonics control the topography, seismicity, climate, geomorphology, and economy. Scarps, facets, structural terraces, horsts and grabens, and trapezoid valleys can be clearly observed. They have been generated by the recent tectonic movements along the faults and represent a serious geologic hazard. The specific geological conditions predetermine a unique variety of landscapes. Thus, the main type of the economy is tourism. However, unorganized tourism leads to the degradation of the unique landscapes. It increases risk and requires disaster management. Three criteria has been used for risk assessment: (1) degree of geologic hazard; (2) degree of landscape degradation; and (3) degree of the economy's vitality. The high ecological significance and low stability to antropogeneous pressure are typical for landscapes of the Western Lake Baikal. Thus, some special activities of disaster management should be implemented based on our investigation.     

A 2D finite volume model for bebris flow and its application to events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees

FLATModel is a 2D finite volume code that contains several original approaches to improve debris-flow simulation. Firstly, FLATModel incorporates a ＂stop-and-go＂ technique in each cell to allow continuous collapses and remobilizations of the debris-flow mass. Secondly, flow velocity and consequently yield stress is directly associated with the type of rheology to improve boundary accuracy. Thirdly, a simple approach for entrainment is also included in the model to analyse the effect of basal erosion of debris flows. FLATMODEL was tested at several events that occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees and simulation results indicated that the model can represent rather well the different characteristics observed in the field.     

Investigation of submicron volcanic aerosol-particles by photoelectron emission

Volcanic aerosol emissions have been studied for the first time by in situ photoelectric charging. Explorative studies on Mt Etna reveal large concentrations of particles below 1000 nm with the spectrum peaking in the size range of 100–1000 nm diameter. Although a large fraction of the particles is already charged upon emission, the net electrical charge carried by the aerosol turned out to be close to zero.Particles with high photoelectric yield vary greatly in their relative abundance and seem to occur mainly at active points of the volcano.     

Use of Rhodamine water tracer in the marshland upwelling system

Rhodamine water tracer (RWT) was used to characterize the migration of waste water within the saline subsurface of a marshland upwelling system (MUS), which is an alternative on-site waste water treatment system for coastal areas. Field tracer studies were performed to investigate the fresh waste water plume movement within the saline ground water. Pore velocities were calculated using first detection times and ranged from 0.68 to 10.7 x 10(-4) cm/sec for the loamy sandy soil matrix present at the site. Use of RWT in the field also allowed determination of main and preferential flowpaths. One- and two-dimensional laboratory experiments were performed using silica sand to investigate the interactions of the organically rich waste water with RWT within the zone surrounding the point of injection (one-dimensional) and the impact of background salinity on plume movement (two-dimensional). The results from these studies were used to help explain the field data. One-dimensional breakthrough curves revealed retardation factors for the RWT in the waste water mixture of 1.73 to 1.90. These results were similar to other researchers, indicating little interaction between the waste water and RWT. Variations in pore water salinity (5, 15, 25, and 35 ppt) were found to have a significant effect on pore water velocities of the fresh water plume (two-dimensional), indicating the need to incorporate background salinities into the design process for MUS.     

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble

Twenty-year temperature and precipitation extremes and their projected future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), updating a similar study based on the CMIP3 ensemble. The projected changes are documented for three radiative forcing scenarios. The performance of the CMIP5 models in simulating 20-year temperature and precipitation extremes is comparable to that of the CMIP3 ensemble. The models simulate late 20th century warm extremes reasonably well, compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes. Simulated late 20th century precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics but uncertainty in extreme precipitation in the tropics and subtropics remains very large, both in the models and the observationally-constrained datasets. Consistent with CMIP3 results, CMIP5 cold extremes generally warm faster than warm extremes, mainly in regions where snow and sea-ice retreat with global warming. There are tropical and subtropical regions where warming rates of warm extremes exceed those of cold extremes. Relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation. The corresponding waiting times for late 20th century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, except for a few subtropical regions. The CMIP5 planetary sensitivity in extreme precipitation is about 6 %/°C, with generally lower values over extratropical land.     

Diurnal variation of deep cloud systems over the Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data

Summary Among the various time scales of deep clouds, diurnal variation is found to be prominent over the tropics. The present study examines the diurnal variation in the number and area cover associated with the cloud systems over the tropical Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data. Three periods, namely, April–May 1988, July–August 1988, and January–February 1989 are considered. The dependence of diurnal characteristics on the temperature threshold, life duration and size of cloud systems, and land-sea contrast has been explored. The diurnal characteristics of cloud systems living for more than a day have been studied for the first time. It is shown that cloud systems exhibit strong diurnal dependence at the coldest temperature threshold used (201 K). Also, the diurnal variation is more for larger cloud systems and for longer living systems. In general, more deep cloud activity is found from the satellite data during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Precipitation is enhanced during morning to early noon hours. Further, using data from a recent field experiment, clear evidence of diurnal variation in precipitation over the Bay of Bengal is also presented. Received March 20, 2000/Revised October 3, 2000     

Metadolerite age relationships in the Dalradian of northwest Donegal,Ireland and their orogenic significance

The structural relationships of several intrusive sheets belonging to the extensive metadolerite suite of the Appin (lower) Dalradian rocks of the Creeslough area, northwest Donegal, Ireland have been examined. It is concluded that, relative to the regional chronology of deformation of the enclosing metasediments, sheet emplacement has occurred: pre-D2; syn-D2; between D2 and D3; and syn-D3. The height of activity came in the post-D2, pre-D3 interval and coincided with the peak of regional metamorphism in the area. These relationships in Donegal are compared with those of the pretectonic basic rocks of the southwest Highlands and models are discussed.     

Radio spectra of some markarian galaxies

Radio spectra of 16 Markarian galaxies are studied between 2.7 and 15.5 GHz. The Seyfert-type galaxies have power-law spectra with an average spectral index of -0.82, except for MRK 348, which is an active galaxy with a complex spectrum. The galaxies with featureless optical spectra have rather flat radio spectra, similar to BL Lac-type objects.     

Discrepancy of masses in double galaxies

The estimations of integral masses of double galaxies are obtained taking as a basis recent observational data on 150 pairs of galaxies with measured radial velocities for both components. It is shown that the mean orbital mass-to-luminosity ratio essentially depends on a morphological type of double galaxies and on a kind of interaction between pair components. Minimal values of mass-to-luminosity ratio take place for double galaxies having linear features of interaction, namely: bridges, tails; as well for pairs with compact and Markarian components, too. The empirical relation between mass-to-luminosity ratio and linear separation of pair components do not indicate on an existence of a hidden stellar coronae around double galaxies.     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.