Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

Bringing GPS into harsh environments for fully automated deformation monitoring

Engineering projects that require deformation monitoring frequently utilize geodetic sensors to measure displacements of target points located in the deformation zone. In situations where control stations and targets are separated by a kilometer or more, GPS can offer higher precision position updates at more frequent intervals than can normally be achieved using total station technology. For large-scale deformation projects requiring the highest precision, it is therefore advisable to use a combination of the two sensors. In response to the need for high precision, continuous GPS position updates in harsh deformation monitoring environments, a software has been developed that employs triple-differenced carrier-phase measurements in a delayed-state Kalman filter. Two data sets were analyzed to test the capabilities of the software. In the first test, a GPS antenna was displaced using a translation stage to mimic slow deformation. In the second test, data collected at a large open pit mine were processed. It was shown that the delayed-state Kalman filter developed could detect millimeter-level displacements of a GPS antenna. The actual precision attained depends upon the amount of process noise infused at each epoch to accommodate the antenna displacements. Higher process noise values result in quicker detection times, but at the same time increase the noise in the solutions. A slow, 25 mm displacement was detected within 30 min of the full displacement with sigma values in E, N and U of ±10 mm or better. The same displacement could also be detected in less than 5 h with sigma values in E, N and U of ±5 mm or better. The software works best for detecting long period deformations (e.g., 20 mm per day or less) for which sigma values of 1–2 mm are attained in all three solution components. It was also shown that the triple-differenced carrier-phase observation can be used to significantly reduce the effects of residual tropospheric delay that would normally plague double-differenced observations in harsh GPS environments.

Spin rate estimation of sounding rockets using GPS wind-up

Carrier phase wind-up is a well-known effect that arises from the relative rotation between a transmitting and receiving antenna. In GPS measurements at L1 frequency, this effect translates into an error of 19.029 cm per full relative rotation of antennas. Since this effect is independent of the satellite elevation for pure rotation about the antenna boresight axis, it is usually absorbed by the clock estimation in navigation algorithms. Therefore, the impact of wind-up is usually neglected for applications that do not require accuracies to the cm level like RTK. However, in receiving platforms with high rotation rate, the accumulated wind-up value can be important and actually be larger than receiver noise or even ionospheric variations. Therefore, in such scenarios, the wind-up contribution can be isolated and used as a source of information to compute the spin rate of such platforms using an appropriate combination of GPS observables. This work shows some results of a coarse, yet simple, approach to monitor the rotation angle and spin-rate of spin stabilized sounding rockets flown by DLR.     

An approach to aid INS using time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements

This paper presents a simple and effective approach that incorporates single-frequency, L1 time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements without the need of ambiguity resolution techniques and the complexity to accommodate the delayed-state terms. Static trial results are included to illustrate the stochastic characteristics and effectiveness of the TDCP measurements in controlling position error growth. The formulation of the TDCP observation model is also described in a 17-state tightly-coupled GPS/INS iterative, extended Kalman filter (IEKF) approach. Preliminary land vehicle trial results are also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the TDCP which provides sub-meter positional accuracies when operating for more than 10 min.     

GPS signal acquisition using the repeatability of successive code phase measurements

This paper introduces a new method for GPS signal acquisition, which is based on the repeatability of successive code phase measurements and the M-of-N search algorithm. The performance of the proposed method in terms of probability of signal detection is similar to that of traditional methods, except that the calculation of the probability of detection does not rely on the noise distribution or the Carrier-to-Noise ratio (C/N₀). The code phase repeatability-based method is presented along with equations for probability of detection and probability of false detection. If the distribution of the noise is known, it also provides an estimate of the C/N₀. The proposed method is illustrated for coherent and non-coherent acquisition and C/N₀ estimation.     

A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.     

On the Use of CloudSat and MODIS Data for Estimating Hurricane Intensity

This letter presents preliminary results concerning the use of new observations from the A-Train Constellation for testing a new technique of remotely sensing hurricane intensity from space based on modeling a hurricane as a balanced, convectively neutral vortex. The key observational requirements are simultaneous, accurate measurements of cloud-top height, cloudtop temperature, and cloud profiling information across the center of the storm, although there are ways to bypass the need for cloud-top temperature. In this letter, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard Aqua provides an estimation of the cloud-top temperature, and the near-simultaneous CloudSat observations provide the essential cloud-top height and cloud profiling information. Initial results indicate that the new technique is a promising method for estimating storm intensity when compared post facto to the best track database. Potential uncertainties and room for further refinement of the technique are discussed.     

Cross-scale analysis of cluster correspondence using different operational neighborhoods

Cluster correspondence analysis examines the spatial autocorrelation of multi-location events at the local scale. This paper argues that patterns of cluster correspondence are highly sensitive to the definition of operational neighborhoods that form the spatial units of analysis. A subset of multi-location events is examined for cluster correspondence if they are associated with the same operational neighborhood. This paper discusses the construction of operational neighborhoods for cluster correspondence analysis based on the spatial properties of the underlying zoning system and the scales at which the zones are aggregated into neighborhoods. Impacts of this construction on the degree of cluster correspondence are also analyzed. Empirical analyses of cluster correspondence between paired vehicle theft and recovery locations are conducted on different zoning methods and across a series of geographic scales and the dynamics of cluster correspondence patterns are discussed.      

A Microwave Tomographic Approach for Nondestructive Testing of Dielectric Coated Metallic Surfaces

A microwave imaging method for nondestructive testing of perfectly conducting surfaces beyond a layered media is presented. The method is an adaptation of the surface reconstruction approach by Yapar et al. to the present problem. It is based on the analytical continuation of the measured data to the surface under test through a special representation of the scattered field in terms of Fourier transform and Taylor expansion. Then the problem is reduced to the solution of a nonlinear equation which is solved iteratively via the Newton method and regularization in the least squares sense. Numerical simulations show that defects as small as lambda/500 can be recovered through the presented algorithm.     

Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe

This paper presents a continuous version of the model of distribution dynamics to analyse the transition dynamics and implied long-run behaviour of the EU-27 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995–2003. It departs from previous research in two respects: first, by introducing kernel estimation and three-dimensional stacked conditional density plots as well as highest density regions plots for the visualisation of the transition function, based on Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996), and second, by combining Getis’ spatial filtering view with kernel estimation to explicitly account for the spatial dimension of the growth process. The results of the analysis indicate a very slow catching-up of the poorest regions with the richer ones, a process of shifting away of a small group of very rich regions, and highlight the importance of geography in understanding regional income distribution dynamics.