Optimization of Nowcast Software WDSS-II for operational application over the Indian region

Nowcasting in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is being provided for T + 0 to T + 2 h, using the Warning Decision Support System (WDSS-II) software. Prior to operational nowcasting over the Indian region, the parameters of the nowcast algorithm tool of the software were optimized, and accuracy was evaluated for various weather systems over Delhi. This optimization is demonstrated in this study with reference to three weather systems over Delhi, with each case representing one of three typical types of cloud systems over the region. These are—(a) convective lines associated with winter and early pre-monsoon weather systems, (b) deep convective cells that form in the pre-monsoon (April–June) and post-monsoon season (October–November) and (c) wide convective echoes that form during the monsoon season. The efficacy of the algorithm was assessed on a frame-by-frame basis as well as holistically for entire convective episodes. The important findings of the frame-by-frame study are (1) the inability of the inbuilt growth-decay algorithm to capture the evolution of storm cells, (2) setting of the threshold of detection of storms and tracking storms and (3) number of scales through which storms should be tracked. The holistic capabilities of the nowcast algorithm were tested for entire convective episodes using Model Evaluation Tools software. The results indicate that the advection algorithm tends to move the convective areas faster than observed at all time scales. Hence the multi-scale segmentation approach (over the two-scale approach) increases the smoothening of the output, at the cost of decreased nowcast skill. The inter-event comparison indicates that the low-intensity convective line zones, which are characteristic of winter and early pre-monsoon weather systems, have the most rapid temporal change in the overall area under convection. This leads to larger area errors during nowcasting of these systems. On the other hand, pre-monsoon systems comprised mostly isolated cells that reach great heights and move very fast, but do not have much horizontal area growth. The error in the nowcasting of these systems is mostly in respect of location error, as well as error in forecast of the intensity of the cells. The overall error in nowcasting is least for the monsoon systems over the Delhi region.     

Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998–2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.     

Lithospheric structure below transantarctic mountain using receiver function analysis of TAMSEIS data

The lithospheric structure of Antarctica has been investigated from P- (PRF) and S- receiver functions (SRF) using the seismological data from Trans-Antarctic Mountain Seismic Experiment (TAMSEIS). For the stations deployed on the thick ice sheet, estimation of crustal parameters from PRF may be erroneous as the Moho conversions may interfere with the reverberations within the thick ice sheet. However, the free surface multiples are well observed in PRF. On the other hand, in SRFs, the primary conversions of interest and multiples are separated by the mother S-phase. Therefore, it is advantageous to interpret PRF and SRF jointly for the regions where we have thick low velocity layer at the top such as ice or sediments. The crustal structure and corresponding parameters have already been estimated by various workers, but here we interpret the PRF and SRF jointly to minimize the ambiguity and map the lithospheric architecture below TAM. Our analysis reveals that the average crustal thickness beneath the east Antarctica craton is ～44 km with Vp/Vs ranging between ～1.7 and 1.9. Below Trans-Antarctic Mountain (TAM), the average crustal thickness is ～36 km with higher Vp/Vs of ～1.8–2.0. The rift and the volcanic affected coastal region show erratic depths and Vp/Vs, primarily due to the absence of either primary conversion or multiples in the receiver functions. A small number of stations far from the volcano show that the crust is thinnest (～26 to 34 km thick) in the coastal part. The contribution of this study is the mapping of the lithospheric configuration, not done so far using SRF. The SRF section along a profile spanning E-, W- Antarctica and TAM reveals that the lithospheric thickness in the coast is ～80 km and below TAM it is ～120 km. In the central thick ice cover region, the lithosphere thickens upto ～150 km towards Vostok highlands. The most intriguing feature in our SRF section is that the crust and lithosphere are shallow below TAM compared to the E- Antarctica. Further, we observe a mid-lithospheric low velocity layer confined mostly below TAM, suggesting that the thermal buoyancy could be the prime cause for the upliftment of TAM.     

Shell microstructure of late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) oysters from Ariyalur,Tamil Nadu

The micro-morphological shell characters (both in optical microscope and SEM) have been used to discriminate in between oyster’s sub-families Pycnodonteinae Stenzel 1959, Exogyrinae Vyalov 1936, Ostreinae Refinesque 1815 and Lophinae Vyalov 1936. These sub-families are represented by six constituent genera Phygraea (Phygarea) vesicularis (Lamarck 1806), Hyotissa semiplana (Sowerby1813), Curvostrea rouvellei (Coquand 1862), Ceratostreon pliciferum (Dujardin 1837), Agerostrea ungulata (Schlotheim 1813) and Rastellum (Arctostrea) pectinatum (Lamarck 1810) in the late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) sediments of the Ariyalur area of Tamil Nadu, south India. The optical microscopic observations and SEM studies of the shells of these six genera clearly indicate that all the four sub-families consist of distinctive set of shell-microstructures. Sub-family Pycnodonteinae is characterized by predominance of vesicular, exogyrinae by prismatic, Ostreinae by cross foliated and Lophinae by foliated shell microstructures. Besides their characteristic shell microstructures, some additional microstructures are also visible in the shells of some of the genera of these four sub-families.     

土库曼斯坦阿姆河盆地卡洛夫-牛津阶储层特征及控制因素分析

土库曼斯坦东北部的阿姆河盆地,是中亚地区最重要的含油气盆地之一。根据钻井岩芯和分析化验资料,确定阿姆河盆地卡洛夫-牛津阶为碳酸盐台地相沉积,具有特征的前缘缓斜坡沉积模式,可划分为蒸发台地、局限台地、开阔台地、台地边缘、前缘缓斜坡和盆地6个相带。其中台内、台地边缘和前缘缓斜坡为储层发育相带,尤以发育于台地边缘、开阔台地和前缘缓斜坡相带中的礁、滩微相最有利于储层发育。沉积微相和岩性对储层类型及物性有直接控制,特点为高能环境条件下沉积的块状礁灰岩和中-厚层状滩相颗粒灰岩以发育原生孔隙保存良好的孔隙型和裂缝-孔隙型储层为主,而较低能环境条件下沉积的(含)颗粒微晶灰岩、隐藻灰岩和泥-微晶灰岩以发育基质岩物性很差的裂缝型储层为主。通过综合分析,认为储层发育受沉积微相、岩性和成岩作用复合控制,以各相带内的礁、滩微相灰岩为高效勘探开发目标的"甜心"位置。     

超级喷发(超级侵入)后成矿作用

本文仿照超级喷发的概念定义了超级侵入,并将超级火山对应于大型岩基.文章聚焦于这样一个科学问题:为什么大规模成矿作用发生在紧接着超级喷发和超级侵入之后？为此,首先探讨了峨嵋山地幔柱系统的活动规律.尽管少数学者对玄武质岩浆大规模喷出之前的千米级地壳隆升提出了质疑,峨嵋山火山岩系第一旋回底部玄武岩直接覆盖在喀斯特之上的新观察支持千米级隆升的认识.这表明,峨嵋山地幔柱快速上涌之初期,岩石圈子系统在相当长一段时间没有作出伸展响应,尽管局部已经发生了地壳岩石的部分熔融.因此,岩浆通道形成之后,首先喷出了巨厚层玄武岩,并且后者裹挟了部分长英质岩浆.此后,岩浆喷发的规模振荡性减小,直至消失和地表沉降.斜长石巨斑玄武岩和苦橄岩中橄榄石斑晶与基质间的不平衡表明这些晶体属于循环晶,暗示岩浆曾经在深部岩浆房滞留了相当长的时间,这将导致岩石圈受热膨胀和再次隆升以及岩浆的冻结.因此,下一阶段岩浆活动的开始要求有一个冻结岩浆房的活化机制.依据野外地质学和岩相学观察,文章详细描述了流体活化机制,并强调了提出这种机制的必要性.虽然多数作者偏好升温活化机制,流体活化机制对长英质和镁铁质岩浆成矿系统都是必需的.进而,结合地幔名义无水矿物的H₂O丰度及其对岩浆产生过程的贡献,提出岩浆产量与减压速率正相关而与流体产量反相关的观点.尽管水流体可以有效降低地幔橄榄岩的固相线温度从而有可能提高岩浆产量,新生代玄武岩中橄榄岩包体依然含有未分解的角闪石和云母且名义无水矿物依然含有较多的H₂O,表明快速减压条件下含水暗色矿物的分解反应和名义无水矿物的脱水作用都是低效的.将这种认识与峨嵋山地幔柱系统的振荡性运动结合在一起,结合成矿作用的基本解是成矿金属从流体中析出的认识,可以得出超大型矿床必然形成于超级喷发和超级侵入之后.攀枝花式铁矿的观察表明,两类代表性矿床都具有铁矿浆侵位发生在成矿系统演化最后阶段的特点.因此得出结论:超大型矿床的形成取决于岩浆通道向流体通道的转换.如果岩浆通道在尚未完全封闭之前被含矿流体所利用,大规模流体快速上升将产生超大型矿床.含矿流体透过残留于通道中的熔体上升,不仅冲刷通道中的残留熔体并使其聚集在火山岩系之下或侵位于其下部形成含矿小岩体,而且持续注入于小岩浆体中的含矿流体可以导致岩浆强烈分异形成层状岩体.当通道中残留熔体被消耗殆尽,沿着通道上升的只有含矿流体.这些含矿流体充填在自生长裂隙中并强烈排气,最终可形成矿浆型富矿体.考虑到通道的规模与关闭速率的关系,推测超级喷发/侵入发生时的岩浆主通道更容易转换为含矿流体通道,因而是圈定找矿靶区的首选目标.该模型似乎与观察结果相吻合,并可与岩浆成矿系统的复杂性、小岩体成大矿理论、透岩浆流体成矿理论和通道成矿假说有机地结合在一起,较合理解释了超级喷发/侵入后成矿作用的地球动力学背景和成矿过程.由于长英质和镁铁质岩浆系统中均可见岩基,我们建议将这类成矿作用统称为岩基后成矿作用.     

松嫩平原耕层土壤固碳潜力估算

提高土壤碳收集能力对减缓全球温室效应具有重要意义。利用松嫩平原南部第二次土壤普查及多目标区域地球化学调查获取的两期表层土壤有机碳数据,根据近20年来各土壤类型不同土地利用方式土壤有机碳量变化趋势,估算了松嫩平原南部各土壤类型、各用地方式下土壤碳源、汇潜力。由估算得出,如果目前的土地利用方式、气候条件、耕作方式、种植技术不变,松嫩平原耕地土壤0~20 cm土层的固碳潜力为-1.229Tg碳,各土壤类型的林地土壤固碳潜力绝大多数为正值,说明林业用地为碳汇区,固碳潜力合计为3.169Tg碳,而天然牧草地绝大多数的固碳潜力为负值,固碳潜力合计为-2.235Tg碳,为碳源区,本次研究估算得出,松嫩平原总体的固碳潜力为-0.917Tg碳。     

Geochemical features and origin of natural gas in heavy oil area of the Western Slope,Songliao Basin,China

The Western Slope of the Songliao Basin is rich in heavy oil resources (>70 × 10⁸ bbl), around which there are shallow gas reservoirs (∼1.0 × 10¹² m³). The gas is dominated by methane with a dryness over 0.99, and the non-hydrocarbon component being overwelmingly nitrogen. Carbon isotope composition of methane and its homologs is depleted in ¹³C, with δ¹³C₁ values being in the range of −55‰ to −75‰, δ¹³C₂ being in the range of −40‰ to −53‰ and δ¹³C₃ being in the range of −30‰ to −42‰, respectively. These values differ significantly from those solution gases source in the Daqing oilfield. This study concludes that heavy oils along the Western Slope were derived from mature source rocks in the Qijia-Gulong Depression, that were biodegraded. The low reservoir temperature (30–50 °C) and low salinity of formation water with neutral to alkaline pH (NaHCO₃) appeared ideal for microbial activity and thus biodegradation. Natural gas along the Western Slope appears mainly to have originated from biodegradation and the formation of heavy oil. This origin is suggested by the heavy δ¹³C of CO₂ (−18.78‰ to 0.95‰) which suggests that the methane was produced via fermentation as the terminal decomposition stage of the oil.     

全球过去千年典型暖期温度空间格局重建

利用过去两千年全球变化研究网络(PAGES 2k network)最新公布的501条代用记录,重建了全球过去千年全年平均温度空间格局的演化特征,对比分析了中世纪暖期及其最暖100年与20世纪现代暖期、中世纪暖期和小冰期最暖30年与20世纪最近30年的年平均温度空间模态异同.结果显示,在世纪尺度上,现代暖期与历史上中世纪暖期的温度异常空间格局大致相同,变化幅度也在大部分区域相当,但从年代际尺度上,最近30年的升温比过去千年中世纪暖期和小冰期两个典型时期都明显.值得一提的是北大西洋中高纬度海温变化与上述特征并不相同,在年代际和世纪尺度上小冰期和中世纪暖期海温均高于20世纪.可能原因是大西洋经圈翻转环流在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪现代暖期等3个特征时段对太阳辐射、火山活动和温室气体等外强迫的响应不同.     

陆海统筹视域下国土空间多维冲突识别与分区调控——以莱州市为例

充分识别陆海空间冲突并制定科学规划是实现陆海统筹的关键。基于陆海空间利用现状与规划,构建陆海空间冲突的理论分析框架,采用冲突识别矩阵、邻域冲突测度模型和社会网络分析等方法,以山东省莱州市为案例区,1 km格网为研究单元,分别从陆地对海洋、海洋对陆地2个方向定量识别陆海空间的现状冲突和规划冲突,并结合四象限模型对冲突进行分区。主要研究结果如下：① 从冲突范围与强度来看,莱州市陆地利用与规划越过海岸线的范围更大,陆海交互冲突范围将持续增加,陆海统筹应重视空间复合利用与跨系统交互影响。② 从冲突的类型来看,现状冲突中陆地的水域与湿地以及海洋的渔业用海等利用方式对海陆系统产生的影响较大;而在规划冲突中,陆地的一般农地区和其他用地区,海洋的农渔业区和港口航运区4类功能分区跨系统产生的影响较大。③ 现状与规划的耦合分区结果显示,相对独立的陆海空间规划对于控制和缓解空间冲突具有一定效果,然而陆海空间统筹利用与管理迫在眉睫,应结合系统观点根据不同分区特点进行优化。