Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley,Sichuan, China

On August 8, 2017, a Ms = 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Jiuzhaigou Valley, in Sichuan Province, China(N: 33.20°, E: 103.82°). Jiuzhaigou Valley is an area recognized and listed as a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1992. Data analysis and field survey were conducted on the landslide, collapse, and debris flow gully, to assess the coseismic geological hazards generated by the earthquake using an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), remote-sensing imaging, laser range finders, geological radars, and cameras. The results highlighted the occurrence of 13 landslides, 70 collapses, and 25 potential debris flow gullies following the earthquake. The hazards were classified on the basis of their size and the potential property loss attributable to them. Consequently, 14 large-scale hazards, 30 medium-sized hazards, and 64 small hazards accounting for 13%, 28%, and 59% of the total hazards, respectively, were identified. Based on the variation tendency of the geological hazards that ensued in areas affected by the Kanto earthquake(Japan), Chi-chi earthquake(Taiwan China), and Wenchuan earthquake(Sichuan China), the study predicts that, depending on the rain intensity cycle, the duration of geological hazard activities in the Jiuzhaigou Valley may last over ten years and will gradually decrease for the following five to ten yearsbefore returning to pre-earthquake levels. Thus,necessary monitoring and early warning systems must be implemented to ensure the safety of residents,workers and tourists during the construction of engineering projects and reopening of scenic sites to the public.     

BoxCox multi-output linear regression for 10.7 cm solar radio flux prediction

We consider the problem of predicting the mid-term daily 10.7 cm solar radio flux(F10.7),a widely-used solar activity index.A novel approach is proposed for this task,in which BoxCox transformation with a proper parameter is first applied to make the data satisfy the property of homoscedasticity that is a basic assumption of regression models,and then a multi-output linear regression model is used to predict future F10.7 values.The experiment shows that the BoxCox transformation significantly improves the predictive performance and our new approach works substantially better than the prediction from the US Airforce and other alternative methods like Auto-regressive Model,Multi-layer Perceptron,and Support Vector Regression.     

贵州大暴雨个例形成机制数值模拟

利用3层嵌套的中尺度数值模式MM5 V3.5,模拟了2007年6月24～25日发生在贵州中南部的一次大暴雨过程.利用模式输出的高分辨率资料,对这次暴雨天气及中尺度低涡的形成机制进行了诊断分析.模式较成功地模拟出了中尺度系统的演变和降水的分布特征.中尺度低涡的发展、稳定维持是造成贵州这次大暴雨天气的直接原因.暴雨、大暴雨出现在低涡的西南侧.在低层正涡度、辐合、强烈的上升运动和高层负涡度、辐散的有利配置下,形成深厚的上升运动柱,这种中尺度动力配置结构,不仅与暴雨区和暴雨发生时段相对应,而且是引起此次暴雨的中尺度低涡发展和持续的动力机制之一.暴雨区与强烈上升运动区,正涡度区相对应.     

青藏高原西部阿汝冰芯记录的近100 a气温变化研究

以2017年9月钻取自青藏高原西部阿汝冰崩区长度55.29 m的阿汝冰芯为研究对象,通过冰芯δ18O记录与Nye模型重建了冰芯上部17.87 m的时间序列是1917—2016年.结合冰芯邻近的改则、狮泉河气象站1973—2016年夏季平均气温数据,通过相关性分析及线性回归法、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验分析,...     

宗日遗址人骨的稳定同位素分析

利用C和N稳定同位素分析方法研究了青海宗日遗址先民的食谱,探讨了先民的经济模式以及食谱变化趋势。所有人骨骨胶原中的C,N含量以及C/N摩尔比,均表明样品保存较好,可用作食谱分析。骨胶原的δ¹³ C值和δ¹⁵ N值分析显示,先民主要以C₄类植物为食,也摄取一定量的肉食,反映了以粟、黍等为主食而渔猎为辅的生活方式。性质未明墓葬与宗日墓葬之间存在的较大食谱差异,可能与其来自不同文化密切相关。宗日遗址在发展过程中,先民食谱中C₄植物增加而肉食类减少,反映了农业加狩猎采集的混和经济模式向稳定农业模式转变的趋势。     

镜泊湖火山监测台网监测能力初步分析

介绍了镜泊湖火山台网的组成,并对其监测能力进行了初步估算,结果表明,镜泊湖火山台网的近震监测能力完全满足设计要求,在距台网中心50km范围内,ML0以上地震都能准确定位。     

利用Windows XP实现单位业务的远程处理

计算机远程控制是地震台站的未来发展方向,利用Windows XP可以实现单位业务的远程处理,切实提高工作效率。     

型钢混凝土梁柱框支剪力墙结构抗震性能试验研究

框支剪力墙结构在实际工程中经常被采用,震害表明钢筋混凝土框支剪力墙结构抗震性能较差,本文提出型钢混凝土梁柱框支剪力墙结构对此加以改进。作者进行了4个1/4缩尺模型在竖向荷载和单调及低周反复水平荷载作用下的对比试验,其中3个试件采用型钢混凝土转换梁、型钢混凝土框支柱,1个试件采用钢筋混凝土转换梁、钢筋混凝土框支柱。我们分析其承载力、刚度、变形、延性和破坏形态等。试验结果表明,型钢混凝土梁柱框支剪力墙结构承载力高、延性好、滞回曲线丰满,变形能力和耗能能力较强。     

Experimental and Numerical Study on the Bubble Dynamics near Two-Connected Walls with An Obtuse Angle

China Ocean Engineering - This study is concerned with the dynamic characteristics of bubbles near two connected walls (one horizontal and the other inclined with an obtuse angle from the...     

江苏海域动态监管业务运行现状及分析

海域动态监管业务是实施海域管理精细化、科学化的重要手段。文章从海域监管工作模式、海域使用动态监测、海域资源调查、分析评价与决策支持成果等方面对江苏海域动态监视监测业务进行梳理,以期为全国海域动态监管业务化拓展提供参考。