云南东北部拱王山末次冰期

1 Introduction The Gongwang mountains constitute one of the few high m ountains of irrefutable late Pleistocene glaciation in eastern China. This area is one of the m ost extensively studied Quaternary geologicallocationsin eastern China and the interpret…     

环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量空间溢出效应研究

海洋经济向质量效益型转变是建设海洋强国的新要求。通过构建海洋经济-地理距离空间权重矩阵对2000—2014年环渤海地区17个沿海地级市海洋经济增长质量主体的空间交互作用及空间效应进行研究;借助空间计量模型对海洋经济增长质量空间效应影响因素进行甄别。研究表明:①环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量主体呈显著空间相关性,存在空间交互作用;②海洋经济增长质量存在空间溢出的正反馈效应。影响因素中对环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量的直接贡献强度排序为:海洋环境>海洋产业>海洋人才>海洋资本>海洋科技,对其他地区溢出效应影响的排序为:海洋基建>海洋人才>海洋资本。研究为环渤海地区海洋政策制定提供一定参考依据。     

应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.     

Case history of the disastrous debris flows of Tianmo Watershed in Bomi County,Tibet, China: Some mitigation suggestions

Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.     

1957-2014年库布齐沙漠地面风场特征

风对沙漠化过程具有重要影响,起沙风是塑造沙漠地貌格局的主要动力。根据1957-2014年库布齐沙漠周边4个基准气象站的地面风资料,从风速、风向和输沙势等方面分析库布齐沙漠的地面风场特征。结果显示：（1）库布齐沙漠的起沙风频率与平均风速有很高的相关性;（2）年平均风速为2.7 m·s^-1,全年盛行风向为WNW-NW,为中等变率锐双峰风况,合成输沙风向约为310°。4月风速最大,为中等变率环境;8月风速较小,为高变率环境;1月风速最小,为低变率环境。3-6月风速最大,风向集中度一般;11月至翌年2月风速较大,风向集中度高;7-10月风速最小,风向集中度差;（3）20世纪80年代中后期和2007年前后风速、起沙风频率和输沙势发生了较大变化,尤其是2007年前后由减小向增大发展;（4）大气环流和地表粗糙度的改变是库布齐沙漠地面风场变化的重要原因。     

基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型

利用多智能体和元胞自动机对城市土地资源的可持续利用进行了规划。根据环境经济学资源分配原理和可持续发展理论,提出结合多智能体及元胞自动机的微观规划模型,在时间和空间上合理分配及规划城市土地资源的利用,以避免浪费不可再生的土地资源。该模型由相互作用的多智能体层、元胞自动机层和环境因素层组成,可方便地探索不同土地利用政策下城市土地利用发展情景,能够为城市规划提供有用的决策依据。以广州市海珠区为实验区,在可持续发展为前提的规划下,模拟了1995-2010年的城市扩展的动态变化,并讨论了在不同规划情景下城市土地资源的利用效率及合理性。     

石笋记录的西南地区MIS4阶段夏季风的演化

基于重庆市丰都县羊子洞石笋Y-02的12个²³⁰Th年龄和503个氧同位素数据重建了中国西南地区60~73ka B.P.时段夏季风的演化历史。Y-02的δ¹⁸O记录显示中国季风区D/O18、D/O19a和D/O19共3个千年尺度夏季风增强事件与格陵兰间冰阶（GIS）18~19相对应。此外,Y-02记录显示：紧接着D/O18事件以后,夏季风强度突然减弱,而此时北半球高纬度地区正经历着明显的降温过程。Y-02记录捕捉到的这次东亚夏季风突然且短暂的一次减弱过程,可能是H6事件或者是H6事件季风最弱的时段。Y-02的δ¹⁸O记录显示,D/O18事件是一次较强烈的千年尺度季风增强事件,持续时间近千年,而D/O19事件在持续时间和强度上不如D/O18事件,这不同于格陵兰冰芯记录。中国季风区气候变化与格陵兰地区存在着如此紧密的联系进一步支持：东亚夏季风演化受到北半球高纬度地区气候变化的影响,但是对具体的气候事件响应可能存在不同的模式。

     

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On the Disappearance of Kilohertz Quasi-periodic Oscillations at a High Mass Accretion Rate in Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries

We here investigate the possibility that the ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR) events observed above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK) limit are mostly protons accelerated in reconnection sites just above the magnetosphere of newborn millisecond pulsars that are originated by accretion-induced collapse (AIC). We formulate the requirements for the acceleration mechanism and show that AIC pulsars with surface magnetic fields 1012 G/=10(20) eV. Because the expected rate of AIC sources in our Galaxy is very small ( approximately 10(-5) yr(-1)), the corresponding contribution to the flux of UHECRs is negligible and the total flux is given by the integrated contribution from AIC sources produced by the distribution of galaxies located within the distance that is unaffected by the GZK cutoff ( approximately 50 Mpc). We find that reconnection should convert a fraction xi greater, similar0.1 of magnetic energy into UHECRs in order to reproduce the observed flux.     

COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.