U–Pb geochronology and palynology from Lopingian (upper Permian) coal measure strata of the Galilee Basin,Queensland, Australia

This study presents the first chemical abrasion-isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (CA-IDTIMS) U–Pb zircon ages from tuffs in Lopingian (upper Permian) strata of the Galilee Basin, Queensland and reassigns the B coal-seam to the ‘Burngrove Formation equivalent.’ Five Lopingian tuffs were dated: four from the CRD Montani-1 drill hole including three from the ‘Fair Hill Formation equivalent’ (255.13 ± 0.09, 254.41 ± 0.07 and 254.32 ± 0.10 Ma) and one from the ‘Burngrove Formation equivalent’ (252.81 ± 0.07 Ma, approximately the age of the Yarrabee Tuff in the adjacent Bowen Basin); and a single tuff from the Black Alley Shale in the GSQ Tambo-1-1A drill hole (254.09 ± 0.06 Ma). In the Galilee Basin, all three units are constituents of the Betts Creek Group, here formally elevated in nomenclatural status from the Betts Creek beds. On the western margin of the basin, the group thins, and the ‘J and K’ seams (formerly known as the Crossmore and Glenaras sequences, respectively) in the GSQ Muttaburra-1 drill hole have been interpreted through palynology as Cisuralian–early Guadalupian (spore-pollen assemblage APP3.2). This corroborates the exclusion of the ‘J and K’ seams from the overlying Lopingian Betts Creek Group (spore-pollen assemblage APP5), and the underlying lower to mid-Cisuralian Aramac Coal Measures (spore-pollen assemblage APP2.2), which represent the uppermost unit of the Joe Joe Group. It is proposed that the ‘J and K’ seams are restricted to a depocentre in the Hulton–Rand structure. The recognition of these strata containing APP3.2 spore-pollen assemblages suggests that the mid-Permian hiatus is locally reduced to 12–13 My from 30 Ma (where the ‘J and K’ seams are absent). The results of the radiometric dating and palynological analysis in the Galilee Basin support the proposed, albeit informal stratigraphy, that is given in terms of equivalents of formational units in the Bowen Basin and on the intervening Springsure Shelf.     

The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550

A climate simulation of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model driven with natural forcings alone (constant “pre-industrial” land-cover and well-mixed greenhouse gases, changing orbital, solar and volcanic forcing) has been carried out from 1492 to 2000. Another simulation driven with natural and anthropogenic forcings (changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, the direct and first indirect effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and land-cover) from 1750 to 2000 has also been carried out. These simulations suggest that since 1550, in the absence of anthropogenic forcings, climate would have warmed by about 0.1 K. Simulated response is not in equilibrium with the external forcings suggesting that both climate sensitivity and the rate at which the ocean takes up heat determine the magnitude of the response to forcings since 1550. In the simulation with natural forcings climate sensitivity is similar to other simulations of HadCM3 driven with CO₂ alone. Climate sensitivity increases when anthropogenic forcings are included. The natural forcing used in our experiment increases decadal–centennial time-scale and large spatial scale climate variability, relative to internal variability, as diagnosed from a control simulation. Mean conditions in the natural simulation are cooler than in our control simulation reflecting the reduction in forcing. However, over certain regions there is significant warming, relative to control, due to an increase in forest cover. Comparing the simulation driven by anthropogenic and natural forcings with the natural-only simulation suggests that anthropogenic forcings have had a significant impact on, particularly tropical, climate since the early nineteenth century. Thus the entire instrumental temperature record may be “contaminated” by anthropogenic influences. Both the hydrological cycle and cryosphere are also affected by anthropogenic forcings. Changes in tree-cover appear to be responsible for some of the local and hydrological changes as well as an increase in northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

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Modeling aluminum-silicon chemistries and application to Australian acidic playa lakes as analogues for Mars

Recent Mars missions have stimulated considerable thinking about the surficial geochemical evolution of Mars. Among the major relevant findings are the presence in Meridiani Planum sediments of the mineral jarosite (a ferric sulfate salt) and related minerals that require formation from an acid-salt brine and oxidizing environment. Similar mineralogies have been observed in acidic saline lake sediments in Western Australia (WA), and these lakes have been proposed as analogues for acidic sedimentary environments on Mars. The prior version of the equilibrium chemical thermodynamic FREZCHEM model lacked Al and Si chemistries that are needed to appropriately model acidic aqueous geochemistries on Earth and Mars. The objectives of this work were to (1) add Al and Si chemistries to the FREZCHEM model, (2) extend these chemistries to low temperatures (<0 °C), if possible, and (3) use the reformulated model to investigate parallels in the mineral precipitation behavior of acidic Australian lakes and hypothetical Martian brines.FREZCHEM is an equilibrium chemical thermodynamic model parameterized for concentrated electrolyte solutions using the Pitzer approach for the temperature range from <−70 to 25 °C and the pressure range from 1 to 1000 bars. Aluminum chloride and sulfate mineral parameterizations were based on experimental data. Aluminum hydroxide and silicon mineral parameterizations were based on Gibbs free energy and enthalpy data. New aluminum and silicon parameterizations added 12 new aluminum/silicon minerals to this Na-K-Mg-Ca-Fe(II)-Fe(III)-Al-H-Cl-Br-SO₄-NO₃-OH-HCO₃-CO₃-CO₂-O₂-CH₄-Si-H₂O system that now contain 95 solid phases.There were similarities, differences, and uncertainties between Australian acidic, saline playa lakes and waters that likely led to the Burns formation salt accumulations on Mars. Both systems are similar in that they are dominated by (1) acidic, saline ground waters and sediments, (2) Ca and/or Mg sulfates, and (3) iron precipitates such as jarosite and hematite. Differences include: (1) the dominance of NaCl in many WA lakes, versus the dominance of Fe-Mg-Ca-SO₄ in Meridiani Planum, (2) excessively low K⁺ concentrations in Meridiani Planum due to jarosite precipitation, (3) higher acid production in the presence of high iron concentrations in Meridiani Planum, and probably lower rates of acid neutralization and hence, higher acidities on Mars owing to colder temperatures, and (4) lateral salt patterns in WA lakes. The WA playa lakes display significant lateral variations in mineralogy and water chemistry over short distances, reflecting the interaction of acid ground waters with neutral to alkaline lake waters derived from ponded surface runoff. Meridiani Planum observations indicate that such lateral variations are much less pronounced, pointing to the dominant influence of ground water chemistry, vertical ground water movements, and aeolian processes on the Martian surface mineralogy.     

Relativistic reflection X-ray spectra of accretion disks

We have calculated the relativistic reflection component of the X-ray spectra of accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Our calculations have shown that the spectra can be significantly modified by the motion of the accretion flow, and the gravity and rotation of the central black hole. The absorption edges in the spectra suffer severe en- ergy shifts and smearing, and the degree of distortion depends on the system parameters, in particular, the inner radius of the accretion disk and the disk viewing inclination angles. The effects are significant. Fluorescent X-ray emission lines from the inner accretion disk could be a powerful diagnostic of space-time distortion and dynamical relativistic effects near the event horizons of accreting black holes. However, improper treatment of the re- flection component in fitting the X-ray continuum could give rise to spurious line-like features. These features mimic the true fluorescent emission lines and may mask their relativistic signatures. Fully relativistic models for reflection continua together with the emission lines are needed in order to extract black-hole parameters from the AGN X-ray spectra.     

Modelling liquefaction-induced building damage in earthquake loss estimation

The assessment of building damage caused by liquefaction-induced ground deformations requires the definition of building capacity and vulnerability as a function of the demand, as well as damage scales to describe the state of the damaged building. This paper presents a framework for resolving these issues within the context of earthquake loss estimations, where large variations in building stock and ground conditions must be considered. The principal modes of building response to both uniform and differential ground movements are discussed and the uncertainties in their evaluation are highlighted. A unified damage scale is proposed for use in both reconnaissance and assessment of all modes of building damage, including ‘rigid body’ response of structures on stiff foundations to uniform or differential ground movements. The interaction of ground shaking and liquefaction in the context of induced structural damage is also briefly considered. The paper raises important aspects of earthquake loss estimations in regions of liquefaction potential, which remain relatively poorly defined at present.     

Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure

The prediction of possible future losses from earthquakes, which in many cases affect structures that are spatially distributed over a wide area, is of importance to national authorities, local governments, and the insurance and reinsurance industries. Generally, it is necessary to estimate the effects of many, or even all, potential earthquake scenarios that could impact upon these urban areas. In such cases, the purpose of the loss calculations is to estimate the annual frequency of exceedance (or the return period) of different levels of loss due to earthquakes: so-called loss exceedance curves. An attractive option for generating loss exceedance curves is to perform independent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculations at several locations simultaneously and to combine the losses at each site for each annual frequency of exceedance. An alternative method involves the use of multiple earthquake scenarios to generate ground motions at all sites of interest, defined through Monte–Carlo simulations based on the seismicity model. The latter procedure is conceptually sounder but considerably more time-consuming. Both procedures are applied to a case study loss model and the loss exceedance curves and average annual losses are compared to ascertain the influence of using a more theoretically robust, though computationally intensive, procedure to represent the seismic hazard in loss modelling.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Snowline instability in a general circulation model: application to Carboniferous glaciation

For over twenty years it has been known that energy balance models (EBMs) with snow-albedo feedback are characterized by unstable behavior in some areas of parameter space. This behavior leads to rapid changes in snow area due to small changes in forcing, and has been termed the small ice cap instability (SICI). It has never been clarified whether this behaviour reflects a real feature of the climate system or a limitation in EBMs. In this study we demonstrate that evidence for similar unstable behavior can also be found in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), using a realistic set of boundary conditions for the Carboniferous (300 Ma), one of the most extensive periods of glaciation in Earth history. When solar luminosity is sequentially lowered to near values appropriate for the Carboniferous, there is a discontinuous increase in summer snow area. The instability occurs in approximately the same area of parameter space as one previously found in an EBM. Analysis of selected fields indicates that the circulation is primarily affected in the area of snow increase; far-field effects are minimal. There is good agreement between model-generated summer snowcover and one reconstruction of Carboniferous ice cover. Although more work is required on this topic, our results provide increased support for the possibility that the snowline instability represents a real feature of the climate system, and that it may help explain some cases of glacial inception and abrupt transitions in Earth history.     

Evaluation of analytical methodologies used to derive vulnerability functions

The recognition of fragility and vulnerability functions as a fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment has led to the development of more and more complex and elaborate procedures for their computation. Although these functions have been traditionally produced using observed damage and loss data, more recent studies propose the employment of analytical methodologies as a way to overcome the frequent lack of post‐earthquake data. The variation of the structural modelling approach on the estimation of building capacity has been the target of many studies in the past; however, its influence on the resulting vulnerability model for classes of buildings, the impact in loss estimations or propagation of the uncertainty to the seismic risk calculations has so far been the object of limited scrutiny. In this paper, an extensive study of static and dynamic procedures for estimating the nonlinear response of buildings has been carried out to evaluate the impact of the chosen methodology on the resulting capacity, fragility, vulnerability and risk outputs. Moreover, the computational effort and numerical stability provided by each approach have been evaluated and conclusions drawn regarding the optimal balance between accuracy and complexity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.