Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability

Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead.     

Local site effect microzonation of Lorca town (SE Spain)

Local site effect assessment based on subsurface ground conditions is often the key to evaluate urban seismic hazard. The site effect evaluation in Lorca town (south-eastern Spain) started with a classification of urban geology through the geological mapping at scale 1:10,000 and the use of geotechnical data and geophysical surveys. The 17 geological formations identified were classified into 5 geological/seismic formations according to their seismic amplification capacity obtained from ambient vibration measurements as well as from simultaneous strong motion records. The shear-wave velocity structure of each geological/seismic formation was evaluated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. Nakamura’s method was applied to determine a predominant period distribution map. The spectral amplification factors were fourfold the values recorded in a reference hard-rock site. Finally, the capability of this study for explaining the damage distribution caused by the May 11th, 2011 Lorca destructive earthquake (Mw \(=\) 5.2) was examined. The methods used in this work are of assistance to evaluate ground amplification phenomena in urban areas of complex geology as Lorca town due to future earthquakes with applicability on urban seismic risk management.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt, southeastern Australia: constraints from coupled numerical models of crustal deformation and surface erosion driven by subduction of the underlying mantle

We have used a coupled thermo-mechanical finite-element (FE) model of crustal deformation driven by mantle/oceanic subduction to demonstrate that the tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) during the Mid-Palaeozoic (Late Ordovician to Early Carboniferous) can be linked to continuous subduction along a single subduction zone. This contrasts with most models proposed to date which assume that separate subduction zones were active beneath the western, central and eastern sections of the Lachlan Orogen. We demonstrate how the existing data on the structural, volcanic and erosional evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt can be accounted for by our model. We focus particularly on the timing of fault movement in the various sectors of the orogen. We demonstrate that the presence of the weak basal decollement on which most of the Lachlan Fold Belt is constructed effectively decouples crustal structures from those in the underlying mantle. The patterns of faulting in the upper crust appears therefore to be controlled by lateral strength contrasts inherited from previous orogenic events rather than the location of one or several subduction zones. The model also predicts that the uplift and deep exhumation of the Wagga-Omeo Metamorphic Belt (WOMB) is associated with the advection of this terrane above the subduction point and is the only tectonic event that gives us direct constraints on the location of the subduction zone. We also discuss the implications of our model for the nature of the basement underlying the present-day orogen.