Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity.The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.     

Open magnetic fields in active regions

Soft X-ray observations confirm that some of the dark gaps seen between interconnecting loops and inner cores of active regions may be loci of open fields, as it has been predicted by global potential extrapolation of photospheric magnetic fields. It seems that the field lines may open only in a later state of the active region development.Skylab Solar Workshop Post-Doctoral Appointee, 1975–1977. The Skylab Solar Workshops are sponsored by NASA and NSF and managed by the High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research.     

Zooming in on the redshift problem

Scientific inference offers a way to help organize and clarify our thinking about controversial areas of science such as the redshift problem. Scientists typically devote considerable effort to evaluating the probability that data relevant to a controversial area may be due to the null hypothesis (i.e. that there is no new phenomenon). However, it is usually not clear whether a small probability for the null hypothesis can be interpreted as a high probability for some other hypothesis, if only for the reason that the alternative hypothesis may not be specified, and it is not clear how strong a case is required to establish the new hypothesis. Thinking about such topics can be clarified by a simple procedure based on the methods of scientific inference. This procedure is referred to as ZOOM for Zero-Order Organizing Model. This article proposes a ZOOM for the redshift problem, and presents the results of a preliminary trial.     

Solar flares and magnetic topology

This article is a very brief review and comparison of the observational properties of flares and theoretical concepts of models of flares, especially the concepts of magnetic topology and its evolution. We examine the environmental aspects of flare behavior. Some of these aspects must be consequences of unknown processes occurring below the photosphere. Other aspects involve structures--such as filaments--that are closely related to flares. We then examine properties of flares to try to distinguish the different phases of energy release that can occur in the course of a flare. Finally we offer a schematic scenario and attempt to interpret these phases in terms of this scenario.     

12-μm fine-structure emission line and continuum images of G333.6–0.2

We present high spatial resolution (∼0.8 arcsec) diffraction-limited 12.8-μm Ne  ii fine-structure emission line and 12.5-μm continuum images of the bright southern compact H  ii region G333.6–0.2, taken with the mid-infrared imaging polarimeter NIMPOL. The two images show remarkably similar, compact, yet asymmetric, flux distributions. The [Ne  ii ] image shows a complex structure near the ionizing source(s) which we interpret in terms of the ionization structure of the H  ii region. It is found that G333.6–0.2 is more likely to be excited by a cluster of O and B stars than by a single star.     

Mid-infrared polarization studies of SgrA: a three-dimensional study of the central parsec

Thermal emission from magnetically aligned dust grains produces the observed mid-infrared polarization in the northern arm and east–west bar of SgrA West; recent arcsecond-resolution imaging polarimetry at 12.5 μm of these ionized filaments is presented, which confirms and extends previous studies. A lower limit ∼2 mG is found for the magnetic field in the northern arm and the IRS16 complex appears to be displaced from the northern arm by ∼ 0.15 pc along the line of sight. It is shown that the physical conditions in the ionized filaments of the central parsec lead to a very uniform grain alignment that is directed along the local magnetic field. The position angle of polarized emission will then be at right angles to the projection of the field direction on the plane of the sky and its amplitude a measure of the component of field along the line of sight; this makes possible a partial reconstruction of the field in three dimensions. We present the first application of the use of polarimetry in this way. This partial reconstruction is compared with the H92α observations of Roberts et al. and the implications are that the northern arm and east–west bar do not define either an orbital path or a spiral arm but rather represent a tidally stretched structure in free fall about SgrA^★ with significant deviations from a single plane, and most likely represent the inner ionized rim of a more extended neutral cloud.     

Centrifugal instability of the jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind

The outer regions (r > 2.3 R_j; R_j = radius of Jupiter) of the magnetosphere of Jupiter will systematically accumulate plasma. If sufficient plasma accumulates, the field lines must open to allow the plasma to escape. Available energy sources appear able to supply plasma at a high enough rate to keep the field lines constantly open beyond about 60 R_J. We suggest that the solar wind interaction with Jupiter may be essentially different from that with the Earth, with the Jovian magnetosphere opening up to form a planetary wind.     

Influence of magnetic field structure on the conduction cooling of flare loops

A simple model facilitates calculation of the influence of magnetic field configuration on the conduction cooling rate of a hot post-flare coronal plasma. The magnetic field is taken to be that produced by a line dipole or point dipole at an arbitrary depth below the chromosphere. For the high temperatures (T 10⁷ K) produced by flares, the plasma may remain static and isobaric. The influence of the field is such as to increase the heat flux (per unit area) into the chromosphere, but to decrease the total conduction cooling of the flare plasma. This leads to a significant enhancement of the total energy radiated by the flare plasma.     

Short term evolution of coronal hole boundaries

In an examination of the evolution of coronal hole boundaries on a time scale of 1 day, we find that 38% of all the boundaries of coronal holes observed near central meridan passage during the Skylab period shifted in location by >1° heliocentric in 1 day. Of these boundary changes, 70% were on a scale 3 times the average supergranulation cell size. However, large-scale shifts in the boundary locations also occurred, which involved changes in the X-ray emission from these areas of the Sun. X-ray emitting structures on the borders of isolated and evolving holes were less clearly defined than those on the boundaries of well-established, elongated holes. There were generally more changes in the boundaries of the most rapidly evolving holes, but no simple relationship between the amount of change and the rate of hole growth or decay.Skylab Solar Workshop post-doctoral appointee 1975–1976. The Skylab Solar Workshops are sponsored by NASA and NSF and managed by the High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmosoheric Research.