Prioritization of disaster risk in a community using GIS

Prioritization of disaster risk was carried out for a community in Toronto, Canada. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used for spatial analysis, including spatial overlays and clipping for extracting spatial and attribute information related to people’s vulnerability, critical infrastructure and landuse. In order to determine disaster risk, the overall community vulnerability was evaluated by combining social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerabilities. This paper uses the propane explosion incident as the case in point to demonstrate the methodology and procedure used to evaluate risk using GIS techniques. City of Toronto spatial data have been integrated with the study area to gather landuse information, identify risk zones based on the propane storage facility location and evaluate risks. Statistics Canada 2006 census data have been used for area demographics and people’s social and economic status. Vulnerability indicators were determined based on the GIS-derived spatial and attribute data for the hazard and evacuation zones followed by a quantitative spatial risk estimation and ranking. The methodology of this study, based on the risk evaluation and prioritization conducted, can be applied to future decision making in effective landuse planning and the development of risk management strategies.     

Holocene evolution of a rock‐bounded barrier‐lagoon system,Cíes Islands,northwest Iberia

Coastal geomorphology results from the combined effects of contemporary dynamics, sea‐level rise and the inherited geological framework, yet the relative importance of these driving mechanisms may change throughout the evolutionary history of coastal deposits. In this contribution, we analyse the depositional history of the Cíes Islands barrier‐lagoon system, based on lithofacies, radiocarbon ages, and pollen analysis. Our results reveal a sedimentary sequence that provides evidence for striking changes in the dynamical functioning of this complex since the mid‐Holocene. The sedimentary sequence commenced about 7700 cal years bp by fresh‐water ponding of an upland depression located about 4 m below present mean sea‐level. Fresh‐water ponds were infilled by aeolian sediments following a gradual lowering of the water‐table 4000 cal years bp . Post‐3600 cal years bp sea‐level rise allowed water oscillations to reach the elevation of the bedrock causing the inundation of fresh‐water ponds and subsequent lagoonal and marine sedimentation. Subsequently, landward and upward migration of a sand‐barrier led to overwash and deposition of sand in the newly formed lagoon. The resultant sedimentary sequence suggests that climatic conditions played an important role controlling the sedimentation regime during the entire history of the basin; changing water‐table levels during early stages of evolution and increasing storminess during more recent times. In addition, background sea‐level rise related to the Holocene transgression was a key factor in controlling the evolution of the system, yet its influence depended to an extent on the relative elevation of the bedrock topography. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

A probabilistic approach to structural model updating

The problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertainties by utilizing measured dynamic response data is addressed. A Bayesian probabilistic formulation is followed to obtain the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the uncertain model parameters for given measured data. The present paper discusses the issue of identifiability of the model parameters and reviews existing asymptotic approximations for identifiable cases. The focus of the paper is on the treatment of the general unidentifiable case where the earlier approximations are not applicable. In this case the posterior PDF of the parameters is found to be concentrated in the neighborhood of an extended and extremely complex manifold in the parameter space. The computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior PDF in such cases are discussed and an algorithm for an efficient approximate representation of the above manifold and the posterior PDF is presented. Numerical examples involving noisy data are presented to demonstrate the concepts and the proposed method.     

Horse mackerel egg identification using DNA methodology

Egg identification in plankton samples is usually needed for purposes of stock assessment. Until recently, only morphological characters were used for identifying the eggs of different fish species. Late developmental stages are easily distinguishable due to pigmentation as well as egg and oil globule size range. However, for early stages, these characteristics are difficult to be discriminated and may overlap with other species. European horse mackerel species (Trachurus trachurus, T. mediterraneus, T. picturatus) overlap significantly in their spawning areas in some European waters. Because of the fact that their eggs are morphologically similar, genetic methodologies are needed to identify eggs and larvae to species correctly. In the present study, formalin‐ and ethanol‐preserved eggs were tested to estimate the efficacy of genetic methodologies for species identification of eggs when different preservatives are used. A 370‐bp fragment of cytochrome b was successfully amplified followed by restriction fragment analysis with two restriction enzymes aiming to identify the eggs to species. Horse mackerel egg identification was accomplished with the maximum success in ethanol‐preserved eggs. However, it seems that various preservatives had different effects on the DNA quality of eggs as genetic identification was less successful in formalin‐preserved eggs. Preserving in ethanol a part of the eggs obtained in plankton surveys is suggested for purposes of accurate genetic identification, even if their morphological features are distorted in time.     

Is flooding in Toronto a concern?

Toronto is the largest city in Canada with a population of about 5.5 million in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Being located at the shores of Lake Ontario of the Great Lakes, which is the largest surface freshwater system in the world, and affected by air masses originating from the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arctic, the city is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena in socioeconomic and geographical terms. This short paper gives a brief overview of the history of main flooding occurrences in Toronto with an emphasis on the recent flooding of July 2013. An analysis of causes and physical dynamics of the event is presented using the structure of the watersheds and weather systems in the region. Based on the flood risk vulnerability assessment carried out on the 2013 flooding, several weaknesses in critical infrastructure and critical facilities have been highlighted. Future considerations and recommendations include revisiting of the flood damage mitigation strategies (e.g., use of new and adaptive infrastructure designs, social media, crowd-sourcing information), flood zoning update, tax incentives, insurance options, and retrofitting solutions for those living in flood-prone areas.     

Shear strength behaviour of polypropylene fibre reinforced cohesive soils

Soil reinforcement through the inclusion of oriented or randomly distributed discrete elements such as fibres has recently attracted increasing attention in geotechnical engineering. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of certain parameters (the strength properties of the fibre, the relative size of the fibres and grains, and the rate of shear) on the shear strength of polypropylene fibre reinforced cohesive soils. A series of consolidated drained or undrained direct shear tests were conducted on unreinforced and reinforced sandy silt and silty clay specimens. Two types of polypropylene fibres with different mechanical indices were used. The fibre content was varied between 0.3% and 1.1% by weight of dry soil. The test results revealed that the inclusion of fibres in soil significantly increases the shear strength. The attainment of the high shear strength is attributed to the micromechanisms involved in the fibre/soil interactions as studied through scanning electron micrographs. The results also showed that the reinforcement effect was more pronounced under undrained shearing conditions. An important outcome from the current work is that, from the data obtained, the strength of the reinforced soil composites is not practically affected by the fibre mechanical indices.     

Is there any long-term memory effect in the tropical cyclones?

The investigation of the intrinsic properties of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic, during 1870–2006, is herewith attempted. The motivation behind this exploration is to contribute to the current understanding about the dynamics of these disastrous events, as tropical cyclones create destructive impacts for people living around tropical areas. The analytical tool used is the detrended fluctuation analysis, and the exponent obtained reveals that the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count over Atlantic obeys the classical random walk (white noise). In other words, the number of tropical cyclones seems to exhibit neither persistent nor antipersistent behavior. The reliability of the lack of scaling dependence in the time series of the annual tropical cyclone count is confirmed, by applying error bounds statistics and studying the decay of the autocorrelation function (i.e., not rejected exponential decay) and the variability of local slopes (i.e., lack of constancy in a sufficient range). In addition, the fact that the series used is fractional Gaussian noise depicts that the results obtained are reliable, despite the fact that the available data set is still limited. The indication of a nearly white noise signal in the tropical cyclone count fluctuations does not suggest that the climate change phenomenon does not exist.     

Microzooplankton Grazing in Green Water—Results from Two Contrasting Estuaries

We measured seasonal variations in microzooplankton grazing in Long Island Sound (LIS) and San Francisco Bay (SFB). There was consistent evidence of nutrient limitation in LIS, but not SFB. We found higher chlorophyll a concentrations in LIS compared with SFB. In spite of differences in phytoplankton, there were no differences in microzooplankton abundance (summer: LIS, 12.4 ± 1.8 × 10³ indiv. L⁻¹; SFB, 14.1 ± 3.0 × 10³ indiv. L⁻¹), biomass (summer: LIS, 30.4 ± 5.0 μg C L⁻¹; SFB, 26.3 ± 5.9 μg C L⁻¹), or grazing rates (summer: LIS, 0.66 ± 0.19 day⁻¹; SFB, 0.65 ± 0.18 day⁻¹) between the two estuaries. In common with many other investigators, we found many instances of saturated as well as insignificant grazing. We suggest that saturation in some cases may result from high particle loads in turbid estuarine systems and that insignificant grazing may result from extreme saturation of the grazing response due to the need to process non-food particles.     

On the Temporal Distribution of Bursts and Events in the Stable Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer

A methodology for tracing the bursting phenomenon occurring in the turbulent boundary-layer is applied to stable marine atmospheric boundary-layer (MABL) data, collected within the framework of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer, Low wind component experiment at Nantucket Island, 2003, Massachusetts, USA. For the definition of the events contributing to the bursting phenomenon, the quadrant analysis of the momentum flux with varying threshold value is utilized. The present work aims at the better understanding of the time scales of the microstructures in the MABL, by providing the number of the events and the groups and their mean duration and the time difference of all quadrants of the quadrant analysis, for different thresholds and under different meteorological conditions. The interrelation of the different time scales as well as the correlation between the quadrants are investigated and discussed. Also, it is demonstrated that the procedure of grouping events leads to bursts with a mean duration that is independent of the threshold value, for the most important quadrants of the momentum transfer (2 and 4). It is found that the combination of near-neutral conditions with low wind speed permits the development of larger duration events within the stable MABL. Finally, it is shown that the groups of events maintain adequate time and flux coherence only for quadrants 2 and 4.