Using Scintillometry to Estimate Sensible Heat Fluxes over Water: First Insights

An extra large aperture scintillometer (XLAS) was used over several months across the Thau Lagoon (South of France) to retrieve one-wavelength scintillation and, thence, sensible heat flux. We present the experiment with the XLAS, an eddy-covariance station and meteorological stations measuring on or near the Thau Lagoon. Changes implemented to adapt the scintillometry processing schemes to the above water conditions are presented together with a full error budget, including sensitivity tests to the relevant parameters of the scintillometer processing scheme. The XLAS error budget amounts to 16% (systematic part) ±50% (random part). Sensible heat fluxes obtained using the XLAS under unstable atmospheric conditions are then compared to eddy-covariance estimates used as a reference. The scintillometry technique proved to perform satisfactorily in such a watery environment. Some discrepancies observed between the XLAS and eddy-covariance measurements were investigated according to the lagoon fraction of the source area, to discriminate whether they were related to deviations from the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory or to different atmospheric conditions at the respective instrument locations. Local atmospheric conditions agreed well with the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, especially measurements with source areas largely composed of the lagoon surface. Retaining only the measurements with almost only the lagoon surface in the source area improved the agreement between the XLAS and eddy-covariance measurements. The remaining discrepancies are interpreted as being due to significant location differences between the two instruments, resulting in different atmospheric conditions, and to size differences in the source areas.     

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley

Little is known about climate change and its impacts for the arid coastal and mountainous regions in northern Chile. The Elqui river basin, part of the Norte Chico of Chile between 27oS and 33oS latitude, is located south of the hyper-arid Atacama desert. Despite water scarcity, agricultural development in this region has been enhanced by agronomic practices and the marketing of valuable products. This paper characterizes the actual climate conditions and presents an overview and analyses of past climate variability, and future possible climate trends, emphasizing those relevant to agriculture. Precipitation shows an important decrease during the first decades of the past century. Runoff shows decreasing trends for the first half of the past century and increases for 1960 to 1985. Drought appears to be increasing. Statistical downscaling was accomplished using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator. Both future periods of 2011 to 2030 and 2046–65 showed trends to higher minimum and maximum temperature. The number of hot days (maximum temperature greater than or equal to 30°C) has a strong increasing trend during October to April. Even though the downscaled results for precipitation do not show trends, the continuation of the present trend of low amounts is a concern. We discuss some implications of climatic changes for agriculture and we emphasize the importance of adaptation, especially to deal with water scarcity.     

Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: II. Heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling, and biodiversity

As part of the Canadian contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY), several major international research programs have focused on offshore arctic marine ecosystems. The general goal of these projects was to improve our understanding of how the response of arctic marine ecosystems to climate warming will alter food web structure and ecosystem services provided to Northerners. At least four key findings from these projects relating to arctic heterotrophic food web, pelagic-benthic coupling and biodiversity have emerged: (1) Contrary to a long-standing paradigm of dormant ecosystems during the long arctic winter, major food web components showed relatively high level of winter activity, well before the spring release of ice algae and subsequent phytoplankton bloom. Such phenological plasticity among key secondary producers like zooplankton may thus narrow the risks of extreme mismatch between primary production and secondary production in an increasingly variable arctic environment. (2) Tight pelagic-benthic coupling and consequent recycling of nutrients at the seafloor characterize specific regions of the Canadian Arctic, such as the North Water polynya and Lancaster Sound. The latter constitute hot spots of benthic ecosystem functioning compared to regions where zooplankton-mediated processes weaken the pelagic-benthic coupling. (3) In contrast with another widely shared assumption of lower biodiversity, arctic marine biodiversity is comparable to that reported off Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Canada, albeit threatened by the potential colonization of subarctic species. (4) The rapid decrease of summer sea-ice cover allows increasing numbers of killer whales to use the Canadian High Arctic as a hunting ground. The stronger presence of this species, bound to become a new apex predator of arctic seas, will likely affect populations of endemic arctic marine mammals such as the narwhal, bowhead, and beluga whales.     

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

CO2 dilution in the lower atmosphere from temperature and wind speed profiles

Temperature and wind speed profiles obtained from 3?years of radio acoustic sounding system sodar measurements at a rural site in the northern Spanish plateau were fitted to polynomial functions. Depending on the extrema of these fits, several groups of profiles were considered. Daily evolution of temperature profiles corresponded to the lower boundary layer evolution. However, wind speed profiles revealed a frequent low-level jet during the whole day. CO₂ surface concentrations were analysed, and surface CO₂ dilution was also considered by selection of thin canopies with variable depth, resulting in dilution rates of 7 and 18?ppm when the layer increased 100?m for the 95th percentile and temperature and wind speed profiles, respectively.     

Numerical simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in SW Amazon basin during the 1999 rainy season: the role of convective trigger function

In continental areas, the maximum rainfall simulated with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) occurs around 4?h earlier than the one observed with rain gauges. This work presents the successful implementation of a new convective trigger function (CTF) in the convective parameterization scheme used in BRAMS that corrects this misfit between model and observations. The importance of the CTF formulation on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon Basin is reflected by the following numbers: Over Rondonia (SW Amazonia), the original version of BRAMS simulates the maximum rainfall at 1400 UTC (1000 LST), with the new CTF maximum shifting to 1800?UTC (1400?LST), while the S-band radar rainfall maximum is at 1900?UTC (1500?LST). This is attributed to two factors: (1) the new CTF is now coupled to the sensible and latent heat fluxes at surface; (2) during the early morning, the convective available potential energy is reduced.     

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.     

Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

The role of the Indian monsoon onset in the West African monsoon onset: observations and AGCM nudged simulations

In spring the inland penetration of the West African Monsoon (WAM) is weak and the associated rainband is located over the Guinean coast. Then within a few days deep convection weakens considerably and the rainband reappears about 20?days after over the Sahel, where it remains until late September signalling the summer rainy season. Over the period 1989–2008 a teleconnection induced by the Indian monsoon onset is shown to have a significant impact on the WAM onset, by performing composite analyses on both observational data sets and atmospheric general circulation model simulations ensembles where the model is nudged to observations over the Indian monsoon sector. The initiation of convective activity over the Indian subcontinent north of 15°N at the time of the Indian monsoon onset results in a westward propagating Rossby wave establishing over North Africa 7–15?days after. A back-trajectory analysis shows that during this period, dry air originating from the westerly subtropical jet entrance is driven to subside and move southward over West Africa inhibiting convection there. At the same time the low-level pressure field over West Africa reinforces the moisture transport inland. After the passage of the wave, the dry air intrusions weaken drastically. Hence 20?days after the Indian monsoon onset, convection is released over the Sahel where thermodynamic conditions are more favourable. This scenario is very similar in the observations and in the nudged simulations, meaning that the Indian monsoon onset is instrumental in the WAM onset and its predictability at intraseasonal scale.