Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships’ logbooks (1685–2008)

A monthly index based on the persistence of the westerly winds over the English Chanel is constructed for 1685–2008 using daily data from ships’ logbooks and comprehensive marine meteorological datasets. The so-called Westerly Index (WI) provides the longest instrumental record of atmospheric circulation currently available. Anomalous WI values are associated with spatially coherent climatic signals in temperature and precipitation over large areas of Europe, which are stronger for precipitation than for temperature and in winter and summer than in transitional seasons. Overall, the WI series accord with the known European climatic history, and reveal that the frequency of the westerlies in the eastern Atlantic during the twentieth century and the Late Maunder Minimum was not exceptional in the context of the last three centuries. It is shown that the WI provides additional and complementary information to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. The analysis of WI series during the industrial era indicates an overall good agreement with the winter and high-summer NAO, with the exception of several multidecadal periods of weakened correlation. These decoupled periods between the frequency and the intensity of the zonal flow are interpreted on the basis of several sources of non-stationarity affecting the centres of the variability of the North Atlantic and their teleconnections. Comparisons with NAO reconstructions and long instrumental indices extending back to the seventeenth century suggest that similar situations have occurred in the past, which call for caution when reconstructing the past atmospheric circulation from climatic proxies. The robustness and extension of its climatic signal, the length of the series and its instrumental nature make the WI an excellent benchmark for proxy calibration in Europe and Greenland.     

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992–2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified.     

Scalar Fluxes Near a Tall Building in an Aligned Array of Rectangular Buildings

Scalar dispersion from ground-level sources in arrays of buildings is investigated using wind-tunnel measurements and large-eddy simulation (LES). An array of uniform-height buildings of equal dimensions and an array with an additional single tall building (wind tunnel) or a periodically repeated tall building (LES) are considered. The buildings in the array are aligned and form long streets. The sensitivity of the dispersion pattern to small changes in wind direction is demonstrated. Vertical scalar fluxes are decomposed into the advective and turbulent parts and the influences of wind direction and of the presence of the tall building on the scalar flux components are evaluated. In the uniform-height array turbulent scalar fluxes are dominant, whereas the tall building produces an increase of the magnitude of advective scalar fluxes that yields the largest component. The presence of the tall building causes either an increase or a decrease to the total vertical scalar flux depending on the position of the source with respect to the tall building. The results of the simulations can be used to develop parametrizations for street-canyon dispersion models and enhance their capabilities in areas with tall buildings.     

Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach

This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe.     

The 2001 Mesoscale Convective Systems over Iberia and the Balearic Islands

Summary This paper characterizes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) during 2001 over Iberia and the Balearic Islands and their meteorological settings. Enhanced infrared Meteosat imagery has been used to detect their occurrence over the Western Mediterranean region between June and December 2001 according to satellite-defined criteria based on the MCS physical characteristics. Twelve MCSs have been identified. The results show that the occurrence of 2001 MCSs is limited to the August–October period, with September being the most active period. They tend to develop during the late afternoon or early night, with preferred eastern Iberian coast locations and eastward migrations. A cloud shield area of 50.000 km² is rarely exceeded. When our results are compared with previous studies, it is possible to assert that though 2001 MCS activity was moderate, the convective season was substantially less prolonged than usual, with shorter MCS life cycles and higher average speeds. The average MCS precipitation rate was 3.3 mm·h⁻¹ but a wide range of values varying from scarce precipitation to intense events of 130 mm·24 h⁻¹ (6 September) were collected. The results suggest that, during 2001, MCS rainfall was the principal source of precipitation in the Mediterranean region during the convective season, but its impact varied according to the location. Synoptic analysis based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that several common precursors could be identified over the Western Mediterranean Sea when the 2001 MCSs occurred: a low-level tongue of moist air and precipitable water (PW) exceeding 25 mm through the southern portion of the Western Mediterranean area, low-level zonal warm advection over 2 °C·24 h⁻¹ towards eastern Iberia, a modest 1000–850 hPa equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) difference over 20 °C located close to the eastern Iberian coast, a mid level trough (sometimes a cut-off low) over Northern Africa or Southern Spain and high levels geostrophic vorticity advection exceeding 12·10⁻¹⁰ s⁻² over eastern Iberia and Northern Africa. Finally, the results suggest that synoptic, orographic and a warm-air advection were the most relevant forcing mechanisms during 2001.     

Impact of anthropogenic CO 2 on the next glacial cycle

The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO ₂ pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO ₂, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO ₂ condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO ₂ values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.     

Runoff and sediment yield from land under various uses in a Mediterranean mountain area: long‐term results from an experimental station

In this study we analyzed runoff and sediment yield from land under various traditional and current land uses in Mediterranean mountain areas, using long‐term data from an experimental station in the Aísa Valley, Central Spanish Pyrenees. Monitoring at this station has provided 20 years of data that can help explain the hydrological and geomorphological changes that have been observed at larger spatial scales, and also the changes that have occurred to some of the most characteristic landscapes of the Mediterranean middle mountains. In spite of the problems associated with the use of small experimental plots, the results obtained are consistent with other studies in the Mediterranean region, and confirm the strong influence of land use changes on runoff generation and sediment yield. The results indicate that: (i) cereal cultivation on steep slopes (both alternating cereal cultivation and fallow on sloping fields and shifting agriculture on the steepest slopes) represents a major problem for soil conservation. This explains the occurrence throughout the Mediterranean mountains of many degraded hillslopes, which show evidence of sheet wash erosion, rilling, gullying and shallow landsliding; (ii) farmland abandonment has led to a marked reduction in runoff and sediment yield as a consequence of rapid plant recolonization, particularly by dense shrubs; (iii) the natural transformation of abandoned fields into grazing meadows has reduced runoff and sediment yield. Land use trends in the Mediterranean mountains are mainly characterized by generalized farmland abandonment and a decrease in livestock pressure. From a hydrological and geomorphological point of view the main consequences have been a reduction in overland flow from the hillslopes, and a reduction in sediment sources, with differences up to one order of magnitude in sediment yield from dense shrub cover and grazing meadow areas compared with areas under shifting agriculture. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecological quality assessment of small estuaries from the Portuguese coast based on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages indices

Benthic macroinvertebrates communities are the most consistently emphasized biotic component of aquatic ecosystems and are one of the biological indicators required for assessment by the European Water Framework Directive. In this context, several indices based on these communities have been developed in order to assess ecological quality of estuarine systems. In the present work we used AMBI, M-AMBI, BENTIX and BAT to distinguish ecological status of five small estuarine systems of the Portuguese south and southwest coasts. Although indices outputs did not differ between systems and sampling seasons, results indicated that the metrics in which these indices are based could differentiate community structures as a result of two main gradients that force these communities: the natural variability, and the anthropogenic impact.     

Response of single benthic metrics and multi-metric methods to anthropogenic pressure gradients, in five distinct European coastal and transitional ecosystems

In recent times many benthic indices have been proposed to assess the ecological quality of marine waters worldwide. In this study we compared single metrics and multi-metric methods to assess coastal and transitional benthic status along human pressure gradients in five distinct environments across Europe: Varna bay and lake (Bulgaria), Lesina lagoon (Italy), Mondego estuary (Portugal), Basque coast (Spain) and Oslofjord (Norway). Hence, 13 single metrics (abundance, number of taxa, and several diversity and sensitivity indices) and eight of the most common indices used within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) for benthic assessment were selected: index of size spectra (ISS), Benthic assessment tool (BAT), Norwegian quality index (NQI), Multivariate AMBI (M-AMBI), Benthic quality index (BQI), (Benthic ecosystem quality index (BEQI), Benthic index based on taxonomic sufficiency (BITS), and infaunal quality index (IQI). Within each system, sampling sites were ordered in an increasing pressure gradient according to a preliminary classification based on professional judgement. The different indices are largely consistent in their response to pressure gradient, except in some particular cases (i.e. BITS, in all cases, or ISS when a low number of individuals is present). Inconsistencies between indicator responses were most pronounced in transitional waters (i.e. IQI, BEQI), highlighting the difficulties of the generic application of indicators to all marine, estuarine and lagoonal environments. However, some of the single (i.e. ecological groups approach, diversity, richness) and multi-metric methods (i.e. BAT, M-AMBI, NQI) were able to detect such gradients both in transitional and coastal environments, being these multi-metric methods more consistent in the detection than single indices. This study highlights the importance of survey design and good reference conditions for some indicators. The agreement observed between different methodologies and their ability to detect quality trends across distinct environments constitutes a promising result for the implementation of the WFD’s monitoring plans. Moreover, these results have management implications, regarding the dangers of misclassification, uncertainty in the assessment, use of conflicting indices, and testing and validation of indices.     

Some Insights into Topographic,Elastic and Self-gravitation Interaction in Modelling Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes in Active Volcanic Areas

Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.