A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Research on comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region based on state-space method

Based on state-space method and component analysis, this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation system of carrying capacity for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from four aspects, namely economy, environment, ecology and energy. The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity in this region gradually rises in recent years and the economic carrying capacity plays an important role in this situation. Ecological and environmental carrying capacity are gradually enhanced but still affected by water shortages. The energy carrying capacity of this region is low, which is the major factor restricting its sustainable development. Based on the empirical results, following policy suggestions should be adopted: Firstly, local government should accelerate technological progress, promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; Secondly, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resource should be solved gradually; thirdly, government should develop recycling economy, realizing the coordinated development of economy and environment; last but not least, saving energy and improving energy efficiency.     

Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Carbon emission mitigation through regulatory policies and operations adaptation in supply chains: theoretic developments and extensions

Along with carbon emission regulations launched by governments and consumers’ rising concerns about climate changes and global carbon footprint, interests of academia and industry have risen in carbon-efficient supply chain management. This research focuses on some product supply chain to make a literature review-based investigation on proposing a theoretical framework. We also solve potential research issues of how diverse carbon emission regulations can work on supply chain performance as well as emission; in what way we can find coordination mechanisms and optimal policies for supply chain operations to abate emission and enhance system profitability within different scenarios; and also to evaluate the effect on emission reduction for each emission regulation aforementioned through comparing their associated supply chain performances and system emission. Both practitioners in industry and academia might find this study useful, as it generates concepts with a formal framework of potential and values theoretical issues in the emerging field of carbon-efficient supply chain management which combines carbon emission regulations with mature operation management to enrich the theory of supply chain management. This study is perhaps to be valuable and constructive both for operational decisions in firms and for the enactment as well as implementation of emission-reduction regulations. This study should activate further potential researches.     

Geological Characteristics and Stability Evaluation of Wanjia Middle School Slope in Wenchuan Earthquake Area

To investigate the formation mechanism and the stability of Wanjia middle school slope in Wenchuan Earthquake Area, the macroscopic geological characteristics and the failure process of the landslide are researched by engineering geology analysis method, limit equilibrium method, and finit element method. The results show that after the Wenchuan Earthquake, retaining walls, houses and other infrastructure on the foot of Wanjia middle school slope were severely destroyed, 10 cm wide tension fracture appeared at the trailing edge of the slope. Wanjia middle school slope is a type of medium-sized soil landslide. The area of the deformation body is about 19,314 m², the total volume of the deformation body is about 23 × 10⁴ m³. There may be two potential sliding surfaces in the unstable slope: shallow and deep landslide. The analysis results of the limit equilibrium method and the finite element method show that: under dead weight, dead weight + rainstorm, dead weight + earthquake conditions, the plastic zone occurs mainly at the middle part or the trailing edge of the slope, and it doesn’t fully cut through the deep landslide body, so the deep landslide is stable. However, under rainstorm or earthquake conditions, the plastic zone almost completely cut thorough the shallow landslide body, it shows that the shallow landslide is in the understable–basic stable state. It is found that the results of finite element method is concordant with the results of the limit equilibrium method (F _s = 1.06–1.29, the shallow landslide is in the basic stable–stable state). The calculation results show that shallow landslides are likely to occur in Wanjia middle school slope during a rainstorm or an earthquake, so monitoring and control of the slope should be strengthened. The shallow landslide should be managed by some measures, such as anti slide pile retaining structures and drainage works, and the dangerous rock bodies on the slope surface should be cleaned up.     

Estimating Pile Set-up Using 24-h Restrike Resistance and Computed Static Capacity for PPC Piles Driven in Soft Lousiana Coastal Deposits

In this paper, the CPT-based predicted ultimate pile resistances (R_p) were compared with the measured pile resistances (R_m) at different elapsed time for the piles driven into saturated soft clays where piles displayed significant set-up effect. The measured pile resistances were based on 115 restrike records collected from 95 production piles, and 74 records of 9 tested piles. The predicted ultimate pile resistances were calculated from the LCPC, the Schmertmann, and the de Ruiter–Beringen methods, respectively. With the significant pile set-up effect taken into account, the relationship between measured resistances and predicted capacities at different times after pile installation were investigated. The ratios of the measured pile resistances to the predicted capacities scattered in a large spectrum. The ratios fluctuated and stayed within a range of 0.6–1.6 for different CPT methods since end of initial driving until more than 2 months after pile installation. Plots of the ratios versus the predicted pile capacities using different CPT methods have revealed that the ratio (R_m/R_p) presented a strong dependence on the predicted capacities. Great research efforts have been devoted to the analyses of the ratios of the 24-h measured resistance to the predicted capacity based on different CPT methods, in an attempt to find a feasible empirical correlation. It is found that a simple linear relationship exists between the quad root of the ratio and the predicted capacity. The developed empirical equations will give pile foundation engineers an insight into the ultimate resistances of driven piles demonstrating significant pile set-up effects. Pile set-up makes pile resistances grow with time, and it might be one of the reasons that cause the frequently reported large discrepancy between calculated static capacity and measured resistance at a certain time after pile installation.