More accurate,calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for estimating the correlation between two time series

Estimation of Pearson’s correlation coefficient between two time series, in the evaluation of the influences of one time-dependent variable on another, is an often used statistical method in climate sciences. Data properties common to climate time series, namely non-normal distributional shape, serial correlation, and small data sizes, call for advanced, robust methods to estimate accurate confidence intervals to support the correlation point estimate. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, Math Geol 35(6):651–665, 2003), where the main intention is to obtain accurate confidence intervals for correlation coefficients between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the data-generating process into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy of the confidence intervals for smaller data sizes can be substantially improved. In the present paper, the existing program is adapted into a new version, called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique that performs a second bootstrap loop (it resamples from the bootstrap resamples). It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap resampling is used to preserve the serial dependence of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error-based bootstrap Student’s $t$ confidence intervals. The performance of the calibrated confidence interval is examined with Monte Carlo simulations and compared with the performance of confidence intervals without calibration. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small already (i.e., within a few percentage points) for data sizes as small as 20.     

MORPHOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF KARST DEPRESSIONS ON A MEDITERRANEAN KARST MASSIF

Dolines are the most typical landform in karst landscapes. They play an important role in karst hydrogeology; they are effective sediment traps that provide information about past climates and karst evolution, and can also be indicators of tectonic activity. The morphometic analysis of those depressions can help in their study and interpretation. However, detailed identification and delineation of dolines becomes increasingly difficult when the study area is very large, of limited access or covered by vegetation. Here, we have used a method developed by the authors for automatic identification and delineation of karst depressions based on the use of a pit removal algorithm. Next a complete morphometric analysis of the karst depressions has been carried out. The main advantage of the methodology is that by delineating and identifying the depth of each doline from its rim, many morphometric statistics can be obtained, including the relation of doline depth and area with respect to altitude, the main doline orientations, doline density, the fractal dimension of doline area and frequency, and point field analysis, among others. The results are interpreted from a geomorphological point of view and the mapped dolines can be easily integrated into geomorphological mapping. A case study is presented from the large Sierra Gorda karst massif in southern Spain, where 3100 depressions have been identified. A strong structural control of doline shape and orientation is demonstrated; the main areas of doline density are highlighted and doline size is shown to follow a fractal law.     

Deep-water geomorphology of the glaciated Irish margin from high-resolution marine geophysical data

The continental margin offshore of western Ireland offers an opportunity to study the effects of glacial forcing on the morphology and sediment architecture of a mid-latitude margin. High resolution multibeam bathymetry and backscatter data, combined with shallow seismic and TOBI deep-towed side-scan sonar profiles, provide the basis for this study and allow a detailed geomorphological interpretation of the northwest Irish continental margin. Several features, including submarine mass failures, canyon systems and escarpments, are identified in the Rockall Trough for the first time. A new physiographic classification of the Irish margin is proposed and linked to the impact of glaciations along the margin. Correlation of the position and dimensions of moraines on the continental shelf with the level of canyon evolution suggests that the sediment and meltwater delivered by the British–Irish Ice Sheet played a fundamental role in shaping the margin including the upslope development of some of the canyon systems. The glacial influence is also suggested by the variable extent and backscatter signal of sedimentary lobes associated with the canyons. These lobes provide an indirect measurement of the amount of glaciogenic sediment delivered by the ice sheet into the Rockall Trough during the last glacial maximum. None of the sedimentary lobes demonstrates notable relief, indicating that the amount of glaciogenic sediment delivered by the British–Irish Ice Sheet into the Rockall Trough was limited. Their southward disappearance suggests a more restricted BIIS, which did not reach the shelf edge south of 54°23′ N. The various slope styles observed on the Irish margin represent snapshots of the progressive stages of slope development for a glacially-influenced passive margin and may provide a predictive model for the evolution of other such margins.     

A note on the M w 6.3 earthquake in Iceland on 29 May 2008 at 15:45 UTC

This preliminary study aims to investigate a M _w 6.3 earthquake that occurred in South Iceland on Thursday 29 May 2008 at 15:45 UTC. The epicentre was in the Olfus District between the towns of Selfoss and Hveragerdi. This study examines the data recorded and the damage observed immediately after the event. Horizontal accelerations of up to 80%g were recorded in the epicentral region and there is visual evidence that the vertical acceleration exceeded 1 g. The PGA data is compared to a ground motion estimation model developed for the South Iceland earthquakes in June 2000. In general the basic properties of this event are found to be similar to the characteristics of the South Iceland earthquakes in June 2000. The duration of strong-motion is short and the intensity attenuates rapidly with increasing distance. The earthquake action resisted by buildings in the near fault area is inspected through evaluation of elastic as well as inelastic response spectra. The vast majority of structures seemed to withstand the strong-motion fairly competently and without significant visual damage due firstly to the low-rise, predominantly reinforced concrete or timber, style of buildings. Secondly, the short duration of strong-motion contributed to the endurance of structures.     

Rain on snow induced urban floods in cold maritime climate: Risk,indicators and trends

Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events.     

F) Organisations Nationales National Organizations

ABSTRACT

The present study is based on field exploration and production records. The producing formation consists of consolidated continental sediments which are overlain by clays, sands and gravels. No areally extensive aquifers can be distinguished. The only zone of consistently high permeability is associated with a buried channel in the bedrock and is interrupted by a hydraulic barrier. Salt concentrations in the groundwater range from less than 500 ppm to over 2000 ppm. Groundwater temperatures range form 38 °F (3·3 °C) to 41 °F (5·0 °C).

The sustainable yields of individual wells of the three-well field range from 60 igpm to 150 igpm with a combined maximum of 350 igpm. Pumping creates an elongated hydraulic depression which is interrupted by the barrier in one direction and causes major changes in water levels 2 miles distant in the other direction. Short and long-term water-level fluctuations suggest two sources of recharge: direct infiltration and lateral flow.

Significantly different values of transmissivity (T) are computed from production tests of different lengths. Tests of duration of 10 to 500 min, 70 to 130 h, and several months yield values for T, in igpd/ft, of 10,000 to 50,000, 2000 to 6000, and 1300, respectively. From the three methods of attempted yield evaluation the one based on empirical relations between operating pumping rates and drawdowns yields the most satisfactory results.     

A shift in eruption mode of Hekla volcano,Iceland, 3000 years ago: two-coloured Hekla tephra series,characteristics, dispersal and age

Hekla volcano is a major producer of large, widespread silicic tephras. About 3000 years ago, the dominant eruption mode shifted from infrequent large (>1 km³) to more frequent moderate (<1 km³) eruptions. In the following two millennia ≥20 explosive silicic-to-intermediate eruptions occurred, and six or more basaltic. Three categories can be identified with dacite/andesite to basaltic andesite in the oldest eruptions through basaltic andesite to basalt in the youngest eruptions. Ten tephra layers of the first category have distinct field characteristics: a pale lower unit and a dark upper unit (two coloured or TC-layers). Colour separation is sharp indicating a stratified magma chamber origin. The lower unit is dominantly andesitic (61–63% SiO₂), while the upper unit is basaltic andesite (53–57% SiO₂). Volumes of the eight largest TC-layers range from 0.2 to 0.7 km³ as freshly fallen. Radiocarbon and soil accumulation rate dates constrain the TC-layers to between 3000 and 2200 years ago. Two of these (~2890 and ~2920 b2k) are likely to occur overseas. Low SiO₂ in the last erupted tephra of the TC-layers is comparable to that of historical Hekla lavas, implying a final effusive phase. The Hekla edifice may, consequently, be younger than 3000 years.     

The multi-component Hekla Ö Tephra,Iceland: a complex widespread mid-Holocene tephra layer

Large Plinian eruptions from Hekla volcano, Iceland, produce compositionally zoned tephra used as key markers in tephrochronology. However, spatial variations in chemical composition of a tephra layer may complicate its identification. An example is the 5950–6180 cal a bp Hekla Ö tephra layer, which shows compositional spread from rhyolite, dacite and andesite to basalt. In soil sections north of Hekla, the SiO₂ content of the tephra glass reaches 76 wt% in the lowest unit of the Hekla Ö deposit and decreases to 62–63 wt% in the uppermost unit. Intermingled within the whole deposit are basalt tephra grains having 46–47 wt% SiO₂. The composition of the basalt glass includes primitive basalt and a more evolved basalt (MgO >6 and <6 wt%, respectively). Together with literature data, the Hekla Ö tephra and the so-called T-Tephra/Hekla-T are most likely from contemporaneous eruptions of different vents on the Hekla volcanic system, forming a single important marker tephra (Hekla ÖT) deposited over 80% of Iceland. Identification is complicated by its spatial compositional heterogeneity, such as systematic decrease in SiO₂ content from the east to the west of Hekla volcano. Consequently, an individual tephra layer from a large explosive eruption can have different composition at different locations. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoenvironmental significance of Late Permian palaeosols in the South‐Eastern Iberian Ranges,Spain

The Late Permian (Wuchiapingian) Alcotas Formation in the SE Iberian Ranges consists of one red alluvial succession where abundant soil profiles developed. Detailed petrographical and sedimentological studies in seven sections of the Alcotas Formation allow six different types of palaeosols, with distinctive characteristics and different palaeogeographical distribution, to be distinguished throughout the South‐eastern Iberian Basin. These characteristics are, in turn, related to topographic, climatic and tectonic controls. The vertical distribution of the palaeosols is used to differentiate the formation in three parts from bottom to top showing both drastic and gradual vertical upwards palaeoenvironmental changes in the sections. Reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental conditions based on palaeosols provides evidence for understanding the events that occurred during the Late Permian, some few millions of years before the well‐known Permian‐Triassic global crisis.