A Critical Comparison of Three Methods for Time-Lapse Time-Shift Calculation

Time-shift, one of the most popular time-lapse seismic attributes, has been widely used in dynamic reservoir characterization by linking it with pressure and geomechanical changes. Therefore, it is important to select appropriate calculation methods according to different time-lapse seismic data quality and time-shift magnitude. To date, there have been various published works comparing different time-shift calculation methods and discussing their advantages and disadvantages. However, most of these comparisons are based only on synthetic tests or single field applications. As the quality of time-lapse seismic data and time-shift magnitude can vary in different fields, one method may not work consistently well for each case. In this paper, a critical comparison of three different time-shift calculation techniques (Hale’s fast cross-correlation, Rickett’s non-linear inversion, and Whitcombe’s correlated leakage method) is provided. The three methods are applied to a set of synthetic data sets that are designed to account for various seismic noise and time-shift magnitudes. They are also applied to four real time-lapse seismic data sets from three North Sea fields. The calculated time-shift results are compared with the input (in synthetic tests) or the real observations from information such as seabed subsidence and compaction (in field applications). Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons are performed. At the end, each of the time-shift methods is evaluated based on different aspects, and the most appropriate method is suggested for each data scenario. All three time-shift methods are found to successfully measure time-shifts. However, Rickett’s non-linear inversion is the most outstanding method, as it gives smooth time-shifts with relatively good accuracy, and the derived time strains are more stable and interpretable.

     

Time to talk knowledge

As part of the secondary school qualification repackaging, the Ministry of Education has requested the geography education community define what constitutes their “critical body of knowledge.” In this article, I discuss three knowledge‐oriented themes focused on: (a) recent assessment trends in geography; (b) the predictive value of NCEA Level 3 geography with 100‐level success and (c) the nature of knowledge as expressed by the New Zealand Curriculum and assessment. Taken together, these themes suggest a need for a serious conversation about knowledge in school geography, as a pre‐cursor to the re‐design of the geography standards matrix.     

Modelling population retention in Australia’s Northern Territory – how do current forms of migration contribute to population turnover and retention?

ABSTRACT

In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.     

Bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of mercury in striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and tautog (Tautoga onitis) from the Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island,USA)

We examined the bioaccumulation and trophic transfer of mercury in two marine finfish species, striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and tautog (Tautoga onitis), collected from the Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA). For each of these target fish, white muscle tissue was analyzed for total mercury (Hg) and results were evaluated relative to fish age, body size, and Hg content of preferred prey. Dietary and stable isotope analysis was also used to elucidate the effect of trophic processes on Hg concentrations in fish. The Hg content of muscle tissue was positively correlated with fish age and length for both species, although striped bass accumulated Hg faster than tautog. Accelerated Hg bioaccumulation in striped bass is consistent with its high trophic level (trophic level = 4.07) and Hg-enriched prey (forage fish and macrocrustaceans; mean Hg content = 0.03 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1). In contrast, tautog maintain a lower trophic status (trophic level = 3.51) and consume prey with lower Hg levels (mussels and crabs; mean Hg content = 0.02 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1). Despite differences in Hg bioaccumulation between target fish, the mean Hg concentration of tautog exceeded levels in striped bass (0.24 and 0.16 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1, respectively) due to a disparity in age-at-catch between sampled groups (mean age of tautog and bass = 11.3 and 4.3 yr, respectively). Taking into account legal minimum catch lengths further revealed that 75.0% of legal-size striped bass (>70.2 cm TL; n = 4) and 44.8% of tautog (>40.6 cm TL; n = 29) had Hg levels beyond the US EPA regulatory threshold of 0.3 mg Hg kg wet wt^?1. Moreover, Hg-length relationships suggest that each target fish meets this threshold near their minimum legal catch length. Our findings reiterate the value of species ecology to improve predictions of fish Hg and permit better management of human contamination by this important dietary source.     

Assessment of boundary-element method for modelling a free-floating sloped wave energy device. Part 1: Numerical modelling

The boundary-element method has been widely used as a design tool in the offshore and ship building industry for more than 30 years. Its application to wave energy conversion is, however, more recent. This paper deals with the numerical modelling of a free-floating sloped wave energy device. The power take-off mechanism of the device consists of an immersed tube with a piston sliding inside. The modelling is done using the boundary-element method package WAMIT. The model is first worked out for the case where the axis of the tube is vertical. It is then derived for the tube inclined and successfully verified against numerical benchmark data. A companion paper presents results of a detailed comparison with a physical model study.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Wave diffraction and near-trapping by a multi-column gravity-based structure

This paper is concerned with the diffraction of water waves by offshore structures, with the ultimate aim of proposing tools for guiding airgap design. The diffraction of monochromatic waves by an array of four bottom mounted cylinders and a gravity-based structure is studied in detail using linear and second order theory. The phenomenon of near-trapping is investigated, allowing guidelines for airgap design to be established. When contemplating airgap design, however, it is crucially important that consideration is given to the largest waves in a sea state. Therefore, in this study a design wave, called NewWave, is proposed as a realistic model for large ocean waves and is used as the incident wave field in the wave-structure diffraction analysis.     

Fundamental study for morphodynamic modelling: Sand mounds in oscillatory flows

Experiments on sand mounds in oscillatory flow, undertaken in controlled, large-scale laboratory conditions, have produced well-defined data sets for model comparison. Three bathymetries with different levels of submergence, including a surface-piercing case, were tested. The maximum slope was about 1:5.5. Sediment transport is due to bed load with ripple formation. The principal time-dependent bulk parameters are the vertical distance of the centre of gravity above the base and the volume of the mound. A semi-implicit finite-volume depth-averaged hydrodynamic model is used to drive morphodynamics, using van Rijn's sediment flux model generalized to take account of bed slope, and some justification is given for depth-averaged modeling in these conditions. Starting the model runs with the conditions at the end of the first cycle avoided initial atypical physical behaviour. In general good predictions were obtained with an angle of repose reduced from the standard value of about 30° for stationary beds to 15°. For these situations, morphodynamics was largely unaffected by a hydrodynamic roughness height in the range 2.5D₅₀ to 51D₅₀, with larger values accounting for ripple roughness. The reduced angle of repose may be physically expected with mobile beds but this specific value is only expected to be suited to this form of bed motion. In one case an exaggerated ripple formed near the top of the mound reducing agreement with experiment. For the submerged case with normal ripple structure excellent predictions were obtained. For the initially surface-piercing mound, the time of submergence was better predicted with a 30° angle of repose, presumably due to the prominent influence of the near stationary bed near the wet/dry interface, although long term predictions were better predicted with 15°. The occurrence of vortex shedding in the first cycle modeled was in agreement with experimental observation.     

Reproduction in the sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis (Anthozoa: Pennatulacea) from the west coast of Scotland

The sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis (Pallas, 1766) is a species of conservation concern in Scottish coastal waters, due to its restricted geographical distribution and high sensitivity to demersal fishing activities. Reproduction in F. quadrangularis was investigated in a population located in southern Loch Linnhe, west Scotland. This was accomplished through the analysis of trends in oocyte size-frequency distribution and relative fecundity over a 12-month period. Funiculina quadrangularis is dioecious and the study population exhibited a sex ratio of 1:1. Oogenesis in female F. quadrangularis is characterised by the maintenance of a large pool of asynchronously developing oocytes throughout the year, of which a small proportion (<10%) mature with increasing sychronicity and are spawned in midwinter. The reasons for this distinct pattern of oogenesis and winter spawning remain unclear, although the potential influence of environmental cues and the role of endogenous factors in relation to this sea pen's deep-sea habit are discussed. Whilst the duration of oogenesis is prolonged (>12 months), it is proposed that spawning is a brief and synchronous annual event. Relative fecundity is high and is independent of colony size, varying between approximately 500–2000 oocytes per 1 cm rachial midsection. This measure of fecundity exhibited pronounced seasonality and was significantly lower during the post-spawning winter months. Total fecundity in F. quadrangularis is considered to be high; although a small proportion of the total number of oocytes is spawned annually, this is compensated for by large colony size. Funiculina quadrangularis produces large oocytes (>800 μm), indicative of the production of lecithotrophic larvae.