Primary aragonite and high‐Mg calcite in the late Cambrian (Furongian). Potential evidence from marine carbonates in Oman

Transient aragonite seas occurred in the early Cambrian but several models suggest the late Cambrian was a time of calcite seas. Here, evidence is presented from the Andam Group, Huqf High, Oman (Gondwana) that suggests a transient Furongian (late Cambrian) aragonite sea, characterized by the precipitation of aragonite and high‐Mg calcite ooids and aragonite isopachous, fibrous, cements. Stable carbon isotope data suggest that precipitation occurred just before and during the SPICE (Steptoean Positive Carbonate Isotope Excursion). Aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation can be accounted for if mMg:Ca ratios were around 1.2 given the very high atmospheric CO₂ at that time and if precipitation occurred in warm waters associated with the SPICE. This, together with reported occurrences of early Furongian aragonite ooids from various locations in North America (Laurentia), suggests that aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation from seawater may have been more than just a local phenomenon.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Interaction between scale and scheduling choices in simulations of spatial agents

Spatial simulations are a valuable tool in understanding dynamic spatial processes. In developing these simulations, it is often required to make decisions about how to represent features in the environment and how events unfold in time. These spatial and temporal choices have been shown to significantly alter model outcomes, yet their interaction is less well understood. In this paper, we make use of a simple group foraging model and systematically vary how features are represented (cell size of the landscape) as well as how events unfold in time (order in which foragers take action) to better understand their interaction. Our results show similar nonlinear responses to changes in spatial representation found in the literature, and an effect of the order in which agents were processed. There was also a clear interaction between how features are represented and how events unfold in time, where, under certain environmental representations results were found to be more sensitive to the order in which individuals were processed. Furthermore, the effects of feature representation, scheduling of agents, and their interaction were all found to be influenced by the heterogeneity of the spatial surface (food), suggesting that the statistical properties of the underlying spatial variable will additionally play a role. We suggest that navigating these interactions can be facilitated through a better understanding of how these choices affect the decision landscape(s) on which agents operate. Specifically, how changes to representation affect aggregation and resolution of the decision surface, and thereby the degree to which agents interact directly or indirectly. We suggest that the challenges of dealing with spatial representation, scheduling, and their interaction, while building models could also present an opportunity. As explicitly including alternate representations and scheduling choices during model selection can aid in identifying optimal agent–environment representations. Potentially leading to improved insights into the relationships between spatial processes and the environments in which they occur.     

Groundwater sustainability and groundwater/surface-water interaction in arid Dunhuang Basin,northwest China

The Dunhuang Basin, a typical inland basin in northwestern China, suffers a net loss of groundwater and the occasional disappearance of the Crescent Lake. Within this region, the groundwater/surface-water interactions are important for the sustainability of the groundwater resources. A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was established and calibrated using MODFLOW 2000, which was used to predict changes to these interactions once a water diversion project is completed. The simulated results indicate that introducing water from outside of the basin into the Shule and Danghe rivers could reverse the negative groundwater balance in the Basin. River-water/groundwater interactions control the groundwater hydrology, where river leakage to the groundwater in the Basin will increase from 3,114?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2017 to 11,875?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2021, and to 17,039?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2036. In comparison, groundwater discharge to the rivers will decrease from 3277?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2017 to 1857?×?10⁴ m³/year in 2021, and to 510?×?10⁴ m³/year by 2036; thus, the hydrology will switch from groundwater discharge to groundwater recharge after implementing the water diversion project. The simulation indicates that the increased net river infiltration due to the water diversion project will raise the water table and then effectively increasing the water level of the Crescent Lake, as the lake level is contiguous with the water table. However, the regional phreatic evaporation will be enhanced, which may intensify soil salinization in the Dunhuang Basin. These results can guide the water allocation scheme for the water diversion project to alleviate groundwater depletion and mitigate geo-environmental problem.     

Textural and micro-analytical insights into mafic–felsic interactions during the Oruanui eruption,Taupo

Quenched juvenile mafic inclusions (enclaves) are an occasional but informative component in the deposits of large felsic eruptions. Typically, the groundmasses of these inclusions rapidly crystallize as the mafic magma is chilled against a more voluminous, cooler felsic host, providing a physical and chemical record of the nature and timing of mafic–felsic interactions. We examine mafic inclusions of two compositional lineages (tholeiitic and calc-alkaline) from deposits of the 25.4 ka Oruanui eruption (Taupo, New Zealand). 2-D quantitative textural data from analysis of back-scattered electron images reveal a marked diversity in the groundmass textures of the inclusions, including median crystal sizes (amphibole: 14–45 µm; plagioclase: 21–75 µm) and aspect ratios (amphibole: 1.7–4.2; plagioclase: 2.1–4.0), area number densities (amphibole: 122–2660 mm^?2; plagioclase: 117–2990 mm^?2), area fractions (?) of minerals (?_plag?=?23–45%, ?_amph?=?0–28%, ?_cpx?=?0–6%, ?_oxides?=?0.6–5.5%), and the relative abundance of plagioclase and amphibole (?_plag/?_amph?=?1.0–4.6). Textural parameters vary more significantly within, rather than between, the two compositional lineages, and in some cases show marked variations across individual clasts, implying that each inclusion’s cooling history, rather than bulk composition, was the dominant control on textural development. Groundmass mineral compositions are also diverse both within and between inclusions (e.g. plagioclase from An_34–92, with typical intra-clast variability of ~?20 mol%), and do not correlate with bulk chemistry. Diverse groundmass textures and mineral and glass chemistries are inferred to reflect complex interplay of a range of factors including the degree and rate of undercooling, bulk composition, water content and, possibly, intensive variables. Our data are inconsistent with breakup of a crystallizing ponded mafic layer at the base of the Oruanui melt-dominant body, instead implying that each inclusion partially crystallized as a discrete body with a unique cooling history. Extensive ingestion of mush-derived macro-crystals suggests that mechanical breakup of mafic feeder dikes occurred within a transition zone between the mush and melt-dominant magma body. In this zone, the mush lacked yield strength, as has been inferred from field studies of narrow (meters to few tens of meters) mush-melt transition zones preserved in composite intrusions. Evidence for plastic deformation of inclusions during eruption and the abundance of fresh residual glass in inclusions from all eruptive phases suggest that the inclusions formed syn-eruptively, and must have been formed recurrently at multiple stages throughout the eruption.     

The stratigraphical signature of the Anthropocene in England and its wider context

The Anthropocene deposits of England, here regarded as those formed after ～1950 CE, are now extensive, take various forms, and may be characterized and recognized by a number of stratigraphic signals, such as artificial radionuclides, pesticide residues, microplastics, enhanced fly ash levels, concrete fragments and a novel variety of ‘technofossils’ and neobiotic species. They include the uppermost parts of both ‘natural’ deposits such as the sediment layers formed in lakes and estuaries, and more directly human-made or human-influenced ones such as landfill deposits and the ‘artificial ground’ beneath urban areas and around major constructions. ‘Negative deposits’ include the worked areas of quarries and regions such as the English Fenland, where thick peat deposits have ablated to leave a strongly modified underlying landscape, and extend beneath into the subterranean realm as mine workings, metro systems and boreholes. The production of these is still rapidly increasing and evolving in character, while the early signs of global change, such as warming, sea level rise, and modifications to biotic assemblages, are beginning to further modify the emerging geology of this new phase of Earth history.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Afromontane vegetation and headwater wetland dynamics within the Eastern Mau Forest,Kenya

The Mau Forest Complex is Kenya's largest fragment of Afromontane forest, providing critical ecosystem services, and has been subject to intense land use changes since colonial times. It forms the upper catchment of rivers that drain into major drainage networks, thus supporting the livelihoods of millions of Kenyans and providing important wildlife areas. We present the results of a sedimentological and palynological analysis of a Late Pleistocene–Holocene sediment record of Afromontane forest change from Nyabuiyabui wetland in the Eastern Mau Forest, a highland region that has received limited geological characterization and palaeoecological study. Sedimentology, pollen, charcoal, X-ray fluorescence and radiocarbon data record environmental and ecosystem change over the last ~16 000 cal a bp. The pollen record suggests Afromontane forests characterized the end of the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene with dominant taxa changing from Apodytes, Celtis, Dracaena, Hagenia and Podocarpus to Cordia, Croton, Ficus, Juniperus and Olea. The Late Holocene is characterized by a more open Afromontane forest with increased grass and herbaceous cover. Continuous Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Juncaceae vegetation currently cover the wetland and the water level has been decreasing over the recent past. Intensive agroforestry since the 1920s has reduced Afromontane forest cover as introduced taxa have increased (Pinus, Cupressus and Eucalyptus).     

A Critical Comparison of Three Methods for Time-Lapse Time-Shift Calculation

Time-shift, one of the most popular time-lapse seismic attributes, has been widely used in dynamic reservoir characterization by linking it with pressure and geomechanical changes. Therefore, it is important to select appropriate calculation methods according to different time-lapse seismic data quality and time-shift magnitude. To date, there have been various published works comparing different time-shift calculation methods and discussing their advantages and disadvantages. However, most of these comparisons are based only on synthetic tests or single field applications. As the quality of time-lapse seismic data and time-shift magnitude can vary in different fields, one method may not work consistently well for each case. In this paper, a critical comparison of three different time-shift calculation techniques (Hale’s fast cross-correlation, Rickett’s non-linear inversion, and Whitcombe’s correlated leakage method) is provided. The three methods are applied to a set of synthetic data sets that are designed to account for various seismic noise and time-shift magnitudes. They are also applied to four real time-lapse seismic data sets from three North Sea fields. The calculated time-shift results are compared with the input (in synthetic tests) or the real observations from information such as seabed subsidence and compaction (in field applications). Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons are performed. At the end, each of the time-shift methods is evaluated based on different aspects, and the most appropriate method is suggested for each data scenario. All three time-shift methods are found to successfully measure time-shifts. However, Rickett’s non-linear inversion is the most outstanding method, as it gives smooth time-shifts with relatively good accuracy, and the derived time strains are more stable and interpretable.