Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage

The People's Republic of China is in the process of rapid demographic, economic and urban change including nationwide engineering and building construction at an unprecedented scale. The mega-city of Shanghai is at the centre of China's modernisation. Rapid urbanisation and building growth have increased the exposure of people and property to natural disasters. The seismic hazard of Shanghai and its vicinity is presented from a seismogenic free-zone methodology. A PGA value of 49 cm s⁻² and a maximum intensity value of VII for the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale (a scale similar to the Modified Mercalli) for a 99% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years are determined for Shanghai city. The potential building damage for three independent districts of the city centre named Putuo, Nanjing Road and Pudong are calculated using damage vulnerability matrices. It is found that old civil houses of brick and timber are the most vulnerable buildings with potentially a mean probability value of 7.4% of this building structure type exhibiting the highest damage grade at intensity VII.     

Interpretation of Wild 2 dust fine structure: Comparison of Stardust aluminum foil craters to the three‐dimensional shape of experimental impacts by artificial aggregate particles and meteorite powders

Abstract— New experimental results show that Stardust crater morphology is consistent with interpretation of many larger Wild 2 dust grains being aggregates, albeit most of low porosity and therefore relatively high density. The majority of large Stardust grains (i.e. those carrying most of the cometary dust mass) probably had density of 2.4 g cm^?3 (similar to soda‐lime glass used in earlier calibration experiments) or greater, and porosity of 25% or less, akin to consolidated carbonaceous chondrite meteorites, and much lower than the 80% suggested for fractal dust aggregates. Although better size calibration is required for interpretation of the very smallest impacting grains, we suggest that aggregates could have dense components dominated by μm‐scale and smaller sub‐grains. If porosity of the Wild 2 nucleus is high, with similar bulk density to other comets, much of the pore space may be at a scale of tens of micrometers, between coarser, denser grains. Successful demonstration of aggregate projectile impacts in the laboratory now opens the possibility of experiments to further constrain the conditions for creation of bulbous (Type C) tracks in aerogel, which we have observed in recent shots. We are also using mixed mineral aggregates to document differential survival of pristine composition and crystalline structure in diverse finegrained components of aggregate cometary dust analogues, impacted onto both foil and aerogel under Stardust encounter conditions.     

The quantity and condition of Martian underground water

It is widely accepted that Mars holds a quantity of water in its surface crustal region but the amount is unknown. The present arguments quantify this suspicion, offering an estimate of the quantity on the basis of certain consequences of the comparison between the present observed compositions of the atmospheres of the planets Earth, Venus, and Mars, and the inferred compositions of the mantles of the icy satellites. The results are consistent with alternative estimates such as they are but offer possibilities of regarding the problems of the crustal region of Mars in a different way.     

The Subtropical Convergence east of New Zealand

Hydrographic data from the region of the Subtropical Convergence east of New Zealand between 177°E and 179°E show that in spring the convergence occurs near the Chatham Rise. North of the Chatham Rise the structure is fairly regular with isolines of temperature and salinity sloping upwards towards the south. To the south of the Chatham Rise the structure is more complex with an apparent intrusion of Subtropical Water into the Sub‐antarctic Water below depths of about 150 m.     

A mid-twentieth century reduction in tropical upwelling inferred from coralline trace element proxies

The Cariaco Basin is an important archive of past climate variability given its response to inter- and extratropical climate forcing and the accumulation of annually laminated sediments within an anoxic water column. This study presents high-resolution surface coral trace element records (Montastrea annularis and Siderastrea siderea) from Isla Tortuga, Venezuela, located within the upwelling center of this region. A two-fold reduction in Cd/Ca ratios (3.5–1.7 nmol/mol) is observed from 1946 to 1952 with no concurrent shift in Ba/Ca ratios. This reduction agrees with the hydrographic distribution of dissolved cadmium and barium and their expected response to upwelling. Significant anthropogenic variability is also observed from Pb/Ca analysis, observing three lead maxima since 1920. Kinetic control of trace element ratios is inferred from an interspecies comparison of Cd/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios (consistent with the Sr/Ca kinetic artifact), but these artifacts are smaller than the environmental signal and do not explain the Cd/Ca transition. The trace element records agree with historical climate data and differ from sedimentary faunal abundance records, suggesting a linear response to North Atlantic extratropical forcing cannot account for the observed historical variability in this region.     

A general radar equation for the bistatic acoustic sounder

A radar equation which can be applied to any bistatic acoustic sounder is derived. The equation reduces to the expression normally used for the special case of the monostatic sounder. Numerical results using this equation are given for specific acoustic sounders, including the relative contributions to the scattering from the temperature and velocity parameters (C _T ² and C _V ²), the effect of wind speed on the scattered intensity and the measurement of horizontal wind velocity.Now with the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Portsmouth Polytechnic, Anglesea Road, Portsmouth PO1 3DJ.     

How common is the Milky Way–satellite system alignment?

The highly flattened distribution of satellite galaxies in the Milky Way (MW) presents a number of puzzles. First, its polar alignment stands out from the planar alignments commonly found in other galaxies. Secondly, recent proper-motion measurements reveal that the orbital angular momentum of at least three, and possibly as many as eight, of the MW's satellites points (within  30°  ) along the axis of their flattened configuration, suggesting some form of coherent motion. In this paper, we use a high-resolution cosmological simulation to investigate whether this pattern conflicts with the expectations of the cold dark matter model of structure formation. We find that this seemingly unlikely setup occurs often: approximately 35 per cent of the time, we find systems in which the angular momentum of three individual satellites points along, or close to, the short axis of the satellite distribution. In addition, in 30 per cent of the systems we find that the net angular momentum of the six best-aligned satellites lies within  35°  of the short axis of the satellite distribution, as observed for the MW.     

Internal migration in Peru

"E. G. Ravenstein proposed 'laws of migration' to explain the movement of population in the British Isles from data in the 1881 census. Here, migration in Peru is studied using data from the 1981 census to ascertain the extent to which Ravenstein's 'laws' hold for a different country at a different time.... In conclusion, it is a salutory exercise to apply Ravenstein's seven laws and other findings to Peru and to see how, in a different environment a good time ago, someone could produce a model with wide applicability."     

Late Holocene vegetation changes in Greenwater Valley,Mojave Desert,California

Small-scale late Holocene vegetation changes were determined from a series of 13 modern and fossil packrat middens collected from a site in the Greenwater Valley, northern Mojave Desert, California. Although the site is above the modern lower limit of Coleogyne ramosissima (black-brush), macrofossils of this shrub are only present in samples younger than 270 yr B.P. In order to measure changes more subtle than presence vs absence, macrofossil concentrations were quantified, and principal components and factor analyses were used to distinguish midden plant assemblages. Both the presence/absence data and the statistical analyses suggest a downward shift of 50 to 100 m for Coleogyne (blackbrush) communities between 1435 and 1795 A.D.