The economics of inaction on climate change: a sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; and that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is synergy between individual changes to the model. At low discount rates, the inherent uncertainty about future damages looms larger in the analysis, rendering long-run economic modelling less useful. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the model to three debatable assumptions; it does not, and could not, lead to a more reliably ‘optimal’ cost of carbon. Cost-effectiveness analysis, focusing on the generally shorter-term cost side of the problem, reduces the economic paradoxes of the long run, and may make a greater contribution than economic optimization modelling.     

Large-Scale Synoptic Systems and Fog During the C-FOG Field Experiment

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - The goal of this work is to summarize synoptic meteorological conditions during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field project that took place onshore and offshore of the Avalon...     

Farside explorer: unique science from a mission to the farside of the moon

Farside Explorer is a proposed Cosmic Vision medium-size mission to the farside of the Moon consisting of two landers and an instrumented relay satellite. The farside of the Moon is a unique scientific platform in that it is shielded from terrestrial radio-frequency interference, it recorded the primary differentiation and evolution of the Moon, it can be continuously monitored from the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point, and there is a complete lack of reflected solar illumination from the Earth. Farside Explorer will exploit these properties and make the first radio-astronomy measurements from the most radio-quiet region of near-Earth space, determine the internal structure and thermal evolution of the Moon, from crust to core, and quantify impact hazards in near-Earth space by the measurement of flashes generated by impact events. The Farside Explorer flight system includes two identical solar-powered landers and a science/telecommunications relay satellite to be placed in a halo orbit about the Earth–Moon L2 Lagrange point. One lander would explore the largest and oldest recognized impact basin in the Solar System— the South Pole–Aitken basin—and the other would investigate the primordial highlands crust. Radio astronomy, geophysical, and geochemical instruments would be deployed on the surface, and the relay satellite would continuously monitor the surface for impact events.     

Three-image matching. For 3-D linear object tracking

This paper will discuss strategies for trinocular image rectification and matching for linear object tracking. It is well known that a pair of stereo images generates two epipolar images. Three overlapped images can yield six epipolar images in situations where any two are required to be rectified for the purpose of image matching. In this case, the search for feature correspondences is computationally intensive and matching complexity increases. A special epipolar image rectification for three stereo images, which simplifies the image matching process, is therefore proposed. This method generates only three rectified images, with the result that the search for matching features becomes more straightforward. With the three rectified images, a particular line-segment-based correspondence strategy is suggested. The primary characteristics of the feature correspondence strategy include application of specific epipolar geometric constraints and reference to three-ray triangulation residuals in object space.     

The status of wetlands and the predicted effects of global climate change: the situation in Australia

The condition of many wetlands across Australia has deteriorated due to increased water regulation and the expansion and intensification of agriculture and increased urban and industrial expansion. Despite this situation, a comprehensive overview of the distribution and condition of wetlands across Australia is not available. Regional analyses exist and several exemplary mapping and monitoring exercises have been maintained to complement the more general information sets. It is expected that global climate change will exacerbate the pressures on inland wetlands, while sea level rises will adversely affect coastal wetlands. It is also expected that the exacerbation of these pressures will increase the potential for near-irreversible changes in the ecological state of some wetlands. Concerted institutional responses to such pressures have in the past proven difficult to sustain, although there is some evidence that a more balanced approach to water use and agriculture is being developed with the provision of increasing funds to purchase water for environmental flows being one example. We identify examples from around Australia that illustrate the impacts on wetlands of long-term climate change from palaeoecological records (south-eastern Australia); water allocation (Murray-Darling Basin); dryland salinisation (south-western Australia); and coastal salinisation (northern Australia). These are provided to illustrate both the extent of change in wetlands and the complexity of differentiating the specific effects of climate change. An appraisal of the main policy responses by government to climate change is provided as a basis for further considering the opportunities for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Current state of knowledge regarding the world’s wetlands and their future under global climate change: a synthesis

Wetlands cover at least 6 % of the Earth’s surface. They play a key role in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, harbour a large part of the world’s biodiversity, and provide multiple services to humankind. However, pressure in the form of land reclamation, intense resource exploitation, changes in hydrology, and pollution threaten wetlands on all continents. Depending on the region, 30–90 % of the world’s wetlands have already been destroyed or strongly modified in many countries with no sign of abatement. Climate change scenarios predict additional stresses on wetlands, mainly because of changes in hydrology, temperature increases, and a rise in sea level. Yet, intact wetlands play a key role as buffers in the hydrological cycle and as sinks for organic carbon, counteracting the effects of the increase in atmospheric CO₂. Eight chapters comprising this volume of Aquatic Sciences analyze the current ecological situation and the use of the wetlands in major regions of the world in the context of global climate change. This final chapter provides a synthesis of the findings and recommendations for the sustainable use and protection of these important ecosystems.     

Chemical Characterisation of Natural Ilmenite: A Possible New Reference Material

Seven ilmenite (FeTiO₃) megacrysts derived from alnöite pipes (Island of Malaita, Solomon Islands) were characterised for their major and trace element compositions in relation to their potential use as secondary reference materials for in situ microanalysis. Abundances of thirteen trace elements obtained by laser ablation ICP‐MS analyses (using the NIST SRM 610 glass reference material) were compared with those determined by solution‐mode ICP‐MS measurements, and these indicated good agreement for most elements. The accuracy of the LA‐ICP‐MS protocol employed here was also assessed by repeated analysis of MPI‐DING international glass reference materials ML3B‐G and KL2‐G. Several of the Malaitan ilmenite megacrysts exhibited discrepancies between laser ablation and solution‐mode ICP‐MS analyses, primarily attributed to the presence of a titano‐magnetite exsolution phase (at the grain boundaries), which were incorporated solely in the solution‐mode runs. Element abundances obtained by LA‐ICP‐MS for three of the ilmenite megacrysts (CRN63E, CRN63H and CRN63K) investigated here had RSD (2s) values of < 20% and therefore can be considered as working values for reference purposes during routine LA‐ICP‐MS analyses of ilmenite.     

Cone morphologies associated with shallow marine eruptions: east Pico Island, Azores

Eruptions in shallow water typically produce cones of volcaniclastic material. In order to identify any systematic effects of water depth and other environmental parameters on cone morphology, we have measured the heights and widths of cones in multibeam echo-sounder data from a submarine ridge extending southeast from Pico Island, Azores. XRF analyses of dredged samples show that lavas here vary compositionally from alkali basalt to trachybasalt and trachyandesite. Cones in deeper water are generally steep-sided with upper flanks close to 30°, the dip of talus at the angle of repose. However, height/width ratios of cones vary more in shallow water (200?C400-m summit depth) with extreme values below 0.1; while some shallow-water cones are steep-sided as in deep water, others are much flatter. Three such cones lie on a bench at 300-m depth immediately east of Pico Island and have flank slopes of only 10?C20°. We speculate that exceptionally shallow cone slopes here were produced by forced spreading of the erupting columns on reaching the water?Cair density barrier.     

Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes

This paper examines the philosophy and evolution of volcanological science in recent years, particularly in relation to the growth of volcanic hazard and risk science. It uses the lens of Science and Technology Studies to examine the ways in which knowledge generation is controlled and directed by social forces, particularly during eruptions, which constitute landmarks in the development of new technologies and models. It also presents data from a survey of volcanologists carried out during late 2008 and early 2009. These data concern the felt purpose of the science according to the volcanologists who participated and their impressions of the most important eruptions in historical time. It demonstrates that volcanologists are motivated both by the academic science environment and by a social concern for managing the impact of volcanic hazards on populations. Also discussed are the eruptions that have most influenced the discipline and the role of scientists in policymaking on active volcanoes. Expertise in volcanology can become the primary driver of public policy very suddenly when a volcano erupts, placing immense pressure on volcanologists. In response, the epistemological foundations of volcanology are on the move, with an increasing volume of research into risk assessment and management. This requires new, integrated methodologies for knowledge collection that transcend scientific disciplinary boundaries.