Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.     

Amplitude distributions of solar photospheric fluctuations

Amplitude distributions, which are nearly Gaussian, have been calculated for radial velocity, continuum brightness, spectral line equivalent width and spectral line central residual intensity fluctuations measured from high-dispersion high-resolution spectrograms taken at the center of the solar disk. The RMS and skewness S for each distribution have been calculated in a manner which allows testing of the homogeneity of the granulation pattern (i.e. variations in its statistics across the solar disk and with time). Pattern inhomogeneity across the disk is strongly indicated, and further evidence suggesting appreciable pattern persistence over time intervals 15 minutes is presented. The possibilities for investigations of S and its associated bi-spectrum are discussed. The qualitative values of S obtained are shown not to be due to unusually bright, rising granules (though a statistical tendency towards such granules is possible). An attempt to explain S for continuum brightness fluctuations in terms of the nonlinear effects of Planckian emission and opacity fluctuations in a stratified photosphere, leads to contradiction with the measured amplitude distributions, a contradiction which is probably due to an oversimplified treatment of radiative transfer in an inhomogeneous photosphere.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Gas kinematics in the halo of the warm ULIRG PKS1345+12

We use long-slit spectra taken with the William Herschel Telescope on La Palma and high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging to study the gas kinematic in the halo of the ultraluminous infrared/radio galaxy PKS1345+12 (z=0.122). Our long-slit spectra show line splitting at the locations of massive star clusters ( $10^{6}<M_{\mathrm{SSC}}^{\mathrm{YSP}}<10^{7}$ M_⊙), indicating that they are moving at up to 450 km?s^?1 with respect to the local ambient gas. Given their kinematics, it is plausible that these super star clusters have been formed either in fast-moving gas streams or tidal tails that are falling back into the nuclear regions as part of the merger process, or as a consequence of jet-induced star formation linked to the extended, diffuse radio emission detected in the halo of the galaxy.     

The Moon 35 years after Apollo: What's left to learn?

With the cancellation of the Apollo program after Apollo 17 returned from the Moon in 1972, the focus of NASA switched to other areas of the Solar System. Study of the Moon did continue through analysis of the returned samples and remotely sensed data sets (both orbital and surface), as well as through Earth-based telescopic studies. In the 1990s, new orbital data were obtained from several missions (fly-by and orbital), the first being Galileo that allowed the lunar farside to be mapped, followed by global mapping by the Clementine and Lunar Prospector missions.Interest in the Moon started to increase at the beginning of the 21st century as other nations focused their space exploration programs on the Moon. The speech by President Bush in January 2004 put the Moon back into the critical exploration path for NASA, paving the way for humans to return to the lunar surface by 2020. This return will be critical for developing technologies and protocols for the eventual human exploration of other parts of the solar system. At the time of writing (June 2008), the SELENE/Kaguya mission (Japan and Chang’e-1 (China) are orbiting the Moon, with Chandrayaan-1 (India) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (USA) being scheduled to launch later in 2008.The past (and present) exploration of the Moon begs the question “what's left to be done?” With the renewed focus on the Moon, now that it is on the pathway for the exploration of Mars (and beyond) a similar question has been raised - what should the astronauts do on the Moon? The publication of the New Views of the Moon book [Jolliff et al., 2006. New Views of the Moon, Reviews in Mineralogy, vol. 60. American Mineralogical Society, 721pp] highlighted a number of important scientific questions that remain unanswered as well as posing many more on the basis of the currently available data. These questions resonated in three Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) reports pertinent to this discussion, which were also published (on line) during 2006 (http://www.lpi.usra.edu/leag), and in the National Research Council of the National Academies [2007. The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon. National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 112pp] report entitled “The Scientific Context for Exploration of the Moon”. This paper synthesizes these recent studies, along with those from the 1980s and 1990s, to emphasize the lunar science questions that remain unanswered. In addition, it summarizes the missions already flown to the Moon along with those that are planned in order to give the reader an idea of exactly what lunar science has been and will be conducted in the hope that it will inspire proposals for missions to address the outstanding science questions.     

Chlorine variations in the magma of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Insights from Cl in hornblende and melt inclusions

The Soufrière Hills Volcano in Montserrat erupts a Cl-rich, porphyritic andesite. HCl degassing accompanies eruption and is dependent on the growth rate of the lava dome. The magma contains hornblende phenocrysts that show repetitive zoning in most elements, including Cl. On the basis of the zoning data, (Cl/OH) ratios in the melt, calculated from partitioning data, increase rimward through each zone, indicating that the phenocrysts formed under conditions of varying (Cl/OH)_m. An empirical relationship between A-site occupancy in the hornblende and temperature implies that crystallisation of each zone is also accompanied by increasing temperature. Each zone ends at a resorption horizon, and crystallisation recommences at lower temperature and (Cl/OH)_m. Melt inclusion H₂O and Cl contents for the 8th January 2007 explosive eruption can be explained by closed-system degassing with D_Cl^fl-m between 5 and 30, or by open-system degassing accompanied by a small amount of crystallisation. However, neither simple closed-system degassing nor convective circulation of magma can explain the positive correlation of (Cl/OH)_m with temperature. We suggest that the zoning can be caused by accumulation of CO₂-rich vapour in the andesite, probably as a result of mafic magma injection into the chamber. Decreasing H₂O fugacity and/or increasing Cl_m result in increasing (Cl/OH)_m while heat transferred with the volatiles causes the rise in temperature. Intermittently, the accumulated fluid is lost to the surface, possibly as a result of renewed eruptive activity. This model requires the CO₂-rich fluid to be decoupled from the magma, consistent with previous observations of continuous CO₂ emissions at the surface.     

Evidence for microbiological manganese oxidation in the river Tamar Estuary, South West England

Water samples from the Tamar Estuary oxidized manganese when supplemented with Mn²⁺ (2 mgl⁻¹). The rates of oxidation were depressed in the presence of various metabolic inhibitors. The effect of Mn²⁺ and temperature on the rate of manganese oxidation suggested that a biological process was largely responsible for converting Mn²⁺ to Mn⁴⁺. Rates of manganese oxidation were much higher in freshwater (3·32 μgl⁻¹ h⁻¹ in water containing 30 mgl⁻¹ of suspended matter) than in saline water (0·7 μgl⁻¹ h⁻¹ in water of salinity 32‰) containing the same amount of particulate matter. The rate of manganese oxidation was proportional to the particulate load (up to 100 mgl⁻¹ particulates).