Effects of nonlinear model response on allocation of streamflow depletion: exemplified by the case of Beaver Creek,USA

Anomalies found when apportioning responsibility for streamflow depletion are examined. The anomalies arise when responsibility is assigned to the two states that contribute to depletion of Beaver Creek in the Republican River Basin in the United States. The apportioning procedure for this basin presumes that the sum of streamflow depletions, computed by comparing simulation model runs with and without groundwater pumping from individual states, approximates the streamflow depletion when both states are pumping. In the case study presented here, this presumed superposition fails dramatically. The stream drying and aquifer-storage depletion, as represented in the simulation model used for allocation, are examined in detail to understand the hydrologic and numerical basis for the severe nonlinear response. Users of apportioning procedures that rely on superposition should be aware of the presence and likely magnitude of nonlinear responses in modeling tools.     

生态服务价值与方法研究

1Ecosystemservicesandtheirvalueoftheworld1.1EcosystemservicesHuman societies derive many essential goods from natural ecosystems, including seafood, game animals, fodder, fuelwood, timber, and pharmaceutical products (Constanza, 1997). These goods represent important and familiar parts of the economy. What has been less appreciated until recently is that natural ecosystems also perform fundamental life-support services without which human civilizations would cease to thrive. These include the…     

Post-Aswan dam sedimentation rate of lagoons of the Nile Delta,Egypt

This study uses radiometric analysis (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) of short sediment cores with high-resolution sampling (1-cm interval) to trace sedimentation rates in the Nile Delta lagoons, particularly since completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1964. A declining trend in ²¹⁰Pb_ex as calculated by the CIC model is clearly identified in about 10 cm of the upper-core sediments from the lagoons of Manzala and Edku, accompanied by two spikes of ¹³⁷Cs in cores from the lagoons of Burullus and Edku. These findings illustrate average post-dam sedimentation rates ranging from 0.22 to 0.27 cm a⁻¹ in the lagoons, in contrast with those found previously based on low-resolution sampling. The lower sedimentation rates in the lagoons are a consequence of a dramatic reduction in riverine sediment load to the coastal area as a result of the damming. Although widespread erosion occurs along the open estuarine coast, the lagoon setting remains calmer than before due to coastal diking and freshwater regulation in the delta plain in the past decades. This provides the possibility of continuously preserved radiometric records in the less-bioturbated lagoon sediments. Dating individual layers using the CRS model has revealed increasing sedimentation rates in Manzala and Burullus since the 1980s, which can largely be explained as a consequence of the reduction in lagoon area due to intensifying reclamation. The post-dam sedimentation in the shrinking lagoons may have some adverse ecological consequences due to finer sediment’s affinity with pollutants. These findings would shed light on the environmental conservation and socioeconomic development in the Nile Delta region.     

P wave velocity structure of upper and middle crust beneath the Three Gorges reservoir dam and adjacent regions

The three-dimensional P wave velocity structures of upper and middle crust beneath the Three Gorges reservoir dam and adjacent regions were reconstructed by means of the seismic tomography, using the absolute P-arrivals from the events observed by the Three Gorges seismic network. Our preliminary study of the deep structure shows: (1) the lithology of the Huangling anticline, integral and highly solidified, exhibits a uniformity. Down to a depth of 20 km, the Huangling anticline still shows high-velocity anomalies. Note that the characteristics of the velocity images with the different depths are not the same; (2) the depth of the sedimentary rocks beneath the entire Zigui basin is not constant, which is less than 6 km; (3) the top boundary of the crystalline basement varies from 0 to 7 km, whereas the bottom one between 14 and 16 km; (4) the partially molten substances of the upper mantle are located in the Badong-Zigui and its adjacent regions as well as nearby Peishi area. The development and evolution of the current tectonics are associated with the cooling and solidifying process of the molten substances within the upper mantle; (5) the different velocity structures of the deep crust in both east and west side of the Jiuwanxi fault are to be investigated in order to understand the origin of gravitational gradient zone in the Three Gorge areas; and (6) the velocities within the upper crust would be affected by reservoir water permeability. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40574039), National Key Technology R& D Program (Grant No. 2008BAC38B02)     

Hydrogeochemical investigations and groundwater provinces of the Friuli Venezia Giulia Plain aquifers,northeastern Italy

Water resources are a key factor, particularly for the planning of the sustainable regional development of agriculture, as well as for socio-economic development in general. A hydrochemical investigation was conducted in the Friuli Venezia Giulia aquifer systems to identify groundwater evolution, recharge and extent of pollution. Temperature, pH, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids, alkalinity, total hardness, SAR, Ca²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄ ²⁻, NO₃ ⁻, HCO₃ ⁻ _, water quality and type, saturation indexes and the environmental stable isotope δ¹⁸O were determined in 149 sampling stations. The pattern of geochemical and oxygen stable isotope variations suggests that the sub-surface groundwater (from phreatic and shallow confined aquifers) is being recharged by modern precipitations and local river infiltrations. Four hydrogeological provinces have been recognised and mapped in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Plain having similar geochemical signatures. These provinces have different degrees of vulnerability to contamination. The deep confined groundwater samples are significantly less impacted by surface activities; and it appears that these important water resources have very low recharge rates and would, therefore, be severely impacted by overabstraction.     

A tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones with MM5

A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms^-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones‘ intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.     

Timeslot scheduling of inter-satellite links based on a system of a narrow beam with time division

An inter-satellite link (ISL) can enhance the performance of a global navigation satellite system. The system of narrow beams with time division is being increasingly used for ISLs. ISLs improve the performance of global navigation satellite systems via ranging and communication between satellites. When there are fewer antenna beams than targets, how to schedule timeslots for inter-satellite links to better perform the function of ISLs can become a problem. We describe the timeslot scheduling problem and propose a new method based on grouping to solve this problem of obtaining more range observations in a short time and communicating with a short delay between satellites and facilities. A series of 10,080 benchmarks of a typical constellation of a global navigation satellite system was run to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The regression cycle of constellations under test lasted approximately 7 days. The proposed schedule has a communication delay of less than 10 s and obtains more than nine different range observations in 60 s. Results show that the method effectively solves the scheduling problem and increases the scheduling success ratio remarkably.     

Strain-rate estimation using fractal analysis of quartz grains in naturally deformed rocks

The area-perimeter fractal dimension (D) of quartz grains has earlier been proposed as a strain-rate gauge based on experimental deformation of quartz aggregates. To test the application in naturally deformed rocks, D is calculated in (a) three quartzites belonging to the Lunavada Group of rocks (Aravalli Mountain Belt, NW India) that developed textures between 420–600°C and (b) one quartz reef sample from the Malanjkhand Granite (Central India), which underwent dynamic recrystallization between 250–400°C. Using the above T ranges and calculated D values, strain-rates are calculated for the two sets of samples. A 10^−12.7 s⁻¹ strain rate at 250°C is calculated for the quartz reef sample. However, at higher temperatures the calculated strain-rate is >10⁻¹⁰ s⁻¹ for the quartz reef and the quartzite samples. The quartzites show evidence of dynamic recrystallization by grain boundary migration (GBM) and subgrain rotation (SGR), while the quartz reef is replete with evidence of bulging (BLG) recrystallization. T and calculated strainrates are plotted on available recrystallization map of quartz. It is demonstrated that whilst the T/strain-rate of the quartzites does not fall in the region of GBM and SGR, the T/strain-rate of the quartz reef falls in the BLG region. The problems with strain-rate calculations using area perimeter fractal dimension are discussed. It is concluded that the method of strain-rate calculation can be used only for lower T.     

The structural vulnerability in the framework of natural hazard risk analyses and the exemplary application for storm loss modelling in Tyrol (Austria)

In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province.     

Fishing for diatoms: fish gut analysis reveals water quality changes over a 75-year period

Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented. Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and “modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied.