PRESTo,the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts,capabilities and future perspectives

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for regional earthquake early warning that integrates recently developed algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation in Southern Italy on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), which is deployed in a seismogenic area that is expected to produce a large earthquake within the next 20 years. In this paper we describe the architecture of the system and test its performances using both small earthquakes (M<3.5) recorded at the ISNet and a large event recorded in Japan, through a simulation mode. The results show that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo can produce reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5–6 s from the event origin. Each estimate is provided as a probability density function, with an uncertainty that typically decreases with time: a stable solution is generally reached within 10 s from the origin.     

Earthquake early warning: Concepts,methods and physical grounds

Modern technology allows real-time seismic monitoring facilities to evolve into earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, capable of reducing deaths, injuries, and economic losses, as well as of speeding up rescue response and damage recovery. The objective of an EEW system is to estimate in a fast and reliable way the earthquake’s damage potential, before the strong shaking hits a given target.     

The role of the land surface processes in the rainfall generated by a landfall typhoon: A simulation of the typhoon Sepat (2007)

Landfall tropical cyclones are a major kind of severe weather affecting China. The typhoon Sepat, declassified as tropical storm after its landfalling, caused a continuous heavy rainfall event over China mainland from 19th to 25th August, 2007. The storm cyclone resided over the Hunan province for 60 hours, causing observed accumulated precipitation larger than 300 mm in a large area of the Hunan province and leading severe flood events. This event was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the surface layer scheme UTOPIA. The model was able to reproduce the main characteristics of the event, including the typhoon track and the rainfall field and timing. In addition, three sets of sensitivity experiments have been performed. In the first one, the effects of different land surface schemes (RUC, NOAH and UTOPIA) coupled with WRF on the precipitation, sensible and latent heat flux fields associated with the Typhoon Sepat (2007) were investigated. The second set of sensitivity experiments analyzed the role of the surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat flux) on the typhoon evolution. The third set of sensitivity experiments regarded the initialization of the soil moisture content. These experiments showed that both latent and sensible heat fluxes sustained this landfalling typhoon, maintaining the spiral structure of rain belt. Among the two fluxes, the latent heat one played a major role in determining the intensity, the track and the rainfall distribution of the typhoon. In addition, the correct initialization of the soil moisture content has reveled a fundamental parameter to be initialized in order to correctly evaluate the distribution and intensity of the rain field. The intercomparison between the three different land surface schemes coupled with WRF showed that the WRF-UTOPIA and WRF-NOAH outputs seem comparable between each other and physically most realistic than those of WRF-RUC. These analyses were helpful to understand the evolution and the development of the landfalling typhoon, and demonstrated that WRF-UTOPIA and WRF-NOAH could be considered a good tool for managing the risk evaluation connected with the occurrence of such events at regional scale.     

Formation of cordierite-bearing lavas during anatexis in the lower crust beneath Lipari Island (Aeolian arc,Italy)

Cordierite-bearing lavas (CBL;~105 ka) erupted from the Mt. S. Angelo volcano at Lipari (Aeolian arc, Italy) are high-K andesites, displaying a range in the geochemical and isotopic compositions that reflect heterogeneity in the source and/or processes. CBL consist of megacrysts of Ca-plagioclase and clinopyroxene, euhedral crystals of cordierite and garnet, microphenocrysts of orthopyroxene and plagioclase, set in a heterogeneous rhyodacitic-rhyolitic groundmass containing abundant metamorphic and gabbroic xenoliths. New petrographic, chemical and isotopic data indicate formation of CBL by mixing of basaltic-andesitic magmas and high-K peraluminous rhyolitic magmas of anatectic origin and characterize partial melting processes in the lower continental crust of Lipari. Crustal anatectic melts generated through two main dehydration-melting peritectic reactions of metasedimentary rocks: (1) Biotite + Aluminosilicate + Quartz + Albite = Garnet + Cordierite + K-feldspar + Melt; (2) Biotite + Garnet + Quartz = Orthopyroxene + Cordierite + K-feldspar + Melt. Their position into the petrogenetic grid suggests that heating and consequent melting of metasedimentary rocks occurred at temperatures of 725 < T < 900°C and pressures of 0.4–0.45 GPa. Anatexis in the lower crust of Lipari was induced by protracted emplacement of basic magmas in the lower crust (~130 Ky). Crustal melting of the lower crust at 105 ka affected the volcano evolution, impeding frequent mafic-magma eruptions, and promoting magma stagnation and fractional crystallization processes.     

Modelling the initial shear stiffness of unsaturated soils as a function of the coupled effects of the void ratio and the degree of saturation

Existing models for predicting the small strain behaviour of unsaturated soil are not capable of predicting the initial shear stiffness during suction reduction under normally consolidated conditions. This problem has been addressed in the present study by combining an existing elastoplastic model and recent experimental data to provide a new model for the initial shear stiffness. The model, which is similar to that typically adopted for saturated soils, uses the average skeleton stress and an additional function of the degree of saturation. This new model not only captures the behaviour of the new experimental results, but it also describes a unique relationship between saturated and unsaturated soils.     

Height bias and scale effect induced by antenna gravitational deformations in geodetic VLBI data analysis

The impact of signal path variations (SPVs) caused by antenna gravitational deformations on geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) results is evaluated for the first time. Elevation-dependent models of SPV for Medicina and Noto (Italy) telescopes were derived from a combination of terrestrial surveying methods to account for gravitational deformations. After applying these models in geodetic VLBI data analysis, estimates of the antenna reference point positions are shifted upward by 8.9 and 6.7 mm, respectively. The impact on other parameters is negligible. To simulate the impact of antenna gravitational deformations on the entire VLBI network, lacking measurements for other telescopes, we rescaled the SPV models of Medicina and Noto for other antennas according to their size. The effects of the simulations are changes in VLBI heights in the range [−3, 73] mm and a net scale increase of 0.3–0.8 ppb. The height bias is larger than random errors of VLBI position estimates, implying the possibility of significant scale distortions related to antenna gravitational deformations. This demonstrates the need to precisely measure gravitational deformations of other VLBI telescopes, to derive their precise SPV models and to apply them in routine geodetic data analysis.     

Simulation study of the influence of the ionospheric layer height in the thin layer ionospheric model

This work aims to contribute to the understanding of the influence of the ionospheric layer height (ILH) on the thin layer ionospheric model (TLIM) used to retrieve ionospheric information from the GNSS observations. Particular attention is paid to the errors caused on the estimation of the vertical total electron content (vTEC) and the GNSS satellites and receivers inter-frequency biases (IFB), by the use of an inappropriate ILH. The work relies upon numerical simulations performed with an empirical model of the Earth’s ionosphere: the model is used to create realistic but controlled ionospheric scenarios and the errors are evaluated after recovering those scenarios with the TLIM. The error assessment is performed in the Central and the northern part of the South American continents, a region where large errors are expected due to the combined actions of the Appleton Anomaly of the ionosphere and the South-Atlantic anomaly of the geomagnetic field. According to this study, there does not exist a unique ILH that cancels the vTEC error for the whole region under consideration. The ILH that cancels the regional mean vTEC error varies with the solar activity and season. The latitude-dependent conversion error propagates to the parameters of the model used to represent the latitudinal variation on the vTEC on the ionospheric layer, and to the IFB, when these values are simultaneously estimated from the observed sTEC. Besides, the ILH that cancels the regional mean vTEC error is different from the one that cancels the IFB error and the difference between both ILH varies with the solar activity and season.     

The potential added value of Regional Climate Models in South America using a multiresolution approach

This paper aims to identify those regions within the South American continent where the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have the potential to add value (PAV) compared to their coarser-resolution global forcing. For this, we used a spatial-scale filtering method based on the wavelet theory to distinguish the regional climatic signal present in atmospheric surface fields from observed data (CPC and TRMM) and 6 RCM simulations belonging to the CORDEX Project. The wavelet used for filtering was Haar wavelet, but a comparative analysis with Daubechies 4 wavelet indicated that meteorological fields or regional indices were not very sensitive to the wavelet selected. Once the longer wavelengths were filtered, we focused on analyzing the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the spatiotemporal variability of maximum and minimum surface air temperature on a daily basis. The results obtained suggest essential differences in the spatial distribution of the small-scale signal of extreme precipitation between TRMM and regional models, together with a large dispersion between models. While TRMM and CPC register a large signal throughout the continent, the RCMs place it over the Andes Cordillera and some over tropical South America. PAV signal for surface air temperature was found over the Andes Cordillera and the Brazilian Highlands, which are regions characterized by complex topography, and also on the coasts of the continent. The signal came specially from the small-scale stationary component. The transient part is much smaller than the stationary one, except over la Plata Basin where they are of the same order of magnitude. Also, the RCMs and CPC showed a large spread between them in representing this transient variability. The results confirm that RCMs have the potential to add value in the representation of extreme precipitation and the mean surface temperature in South America. However, this condition is not applicable throughout the whole continent but is particularly relevant in those terrestrial regions where the surface forcing is strong, such as the Andes Cordillera or the coasts of the continent.     

Evaluating Volumetric Glacier Change Methods Using Airborne Laser Scanning Data

Assessments of geodetic volume change are widely used in glaciology and have a long tradition dating back to the nineteenth century. Over time, the geodetic method and corresponding data storage have been developed further, but the resulting methodological heterogeneity can lead to errors that are difficult to separate from other survey uncertainties. In this study we used high‐resolution airborne laser scanning data from the Findelengletscher in the Swiss Alps to evaluate state‐of‐the‐art volumetric glacier change methods. For the first time we have been able to simulate errors arising from different geodetic methods and spatial resolutions. The evaluation showed that, although the digital elevation models were perfectly co‐registered, systematic and random method‐ and scale‐dependent errors still occurred. These errors have an impact on the resulting volume changes at lower spatial resolutions and may lead to exponentially larger uncertainties. Volume changes from contour methods provided reasonably accurate results, while volumetric change assessments from central profile lines were especially prone to biases at any scale.     

Mesoproterozoic evolution of the R��o de la Plata Craton in Uruguay: at the heart of Rodinia?

Mesoproterozoic volcanosedimentary units and tectonic events occurring in the Río de la Plata Craton (RPC) are reviewed. A belt consisting of volcanosedimentary successions exhibiting greenschist-facies metamorphism is exposed in the eastern RPC (Nico Pérez Terrane) in Uruguay. The Parque UTE Group consists of basic volcanics and gabbros at the base (1,492?±?4?Ma, U?CPb on zircon), carbonates in its middle part and interbedded carbonates, shales and acid volcanics (1,429?±?21?Ma, U?CPb on zircon) at the top. The Mina Verdún Group is made up of rhyolites and acid pyroclastics at its base and top, and Conophyton-bearing limestones and massive dolostones in the middle. A U?CPb LA-ICP MS zircon age of 1,433?±?6?Ma is reported here for lapilli-tuffs at the base of the Mina Verdún Group (Cerro de las Víboras Formation). This age shows that the Mina Verdún Group immediately postdates the Parque UTE Group, a fact supported by carbon isotope chemostratigraphy. Both units were deformed and metamorphosed between 1.25 and 1.20?Ga, as shown by K?CAr and Ar?CAr ages. This tectonic event affected most of the RPC and led to the accretion of the Nico Pérez Terrane to the remainder of the RPC along the Sarandí del Yí megashear. We report a U?CPb LA-ICP MS zircon age (upper intercept) of 3,096?±?45?Ma for metatonalites of the La China Complex (Nico Pérez Terrane), which yield a lower intercept age of 1,252?Ma. A proto-Andean, Mesoproterozoic belt is envisaged to account for abundant Mesoproterozoic detrital zircon ages occurring in Ediacaran sandstones of the RPC. If the RPC is fringed at both sides by Mesoproterozoic, Grenville-aged belts it is likely that it occupied a rather central position in Rodinia. A possible location between Laurentia and the Kalahari Craton, and to the south of Amazonia, is suggested.