The potential added value of Regional Climate Models in South America using a multiresolution approach

This paper aims to identify those regions within the South American continent where the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have the potential to add value (PAV) compared to their coarser-resolution global forcing. For this, we used a spatial-scale filtering method based on the wavelet theory to distinguish the regional climatic signal present in atmospheric surface fields from observed data (CPC and TRMM) and 6 RCM simulations belonging to the CORDEX Project. The wavelet used for filtering was Haar wavelet, but a comparative analysis with Daubechies 4 wavelet indicated that meteorological fields or regional indices were not very sensitive to the wavelet selected. Once the longer wavelengths were filtered, we focused on analyzing the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the spatiotemporal variability of maximum and minimum surface air temperature on a daily basis. The results obtained suggest essential differences in the spatial distribution of the small-scale signal of extreme precipitation between TRMM and regional models, together with a large dispersion between models. While TRMM and CPC register a large signal throughout the continent, the RCMs place it over the Andes Cordillera and some over tropical South America. PAV signal for surface air temperature was found over the Andes Cordillera and the Brazilian Highlands, which are regions characterized by complex topography, and also on the coasts of the continent. The signal came specially from the small-scale stationary component. The transient part is much smaller than the stationary one, except over la Plata Basin where they are of the same order of magnitude. Also, the RCMs and CPC showed a large spread between them in representing this transient variability. The results confirm that RCMs have the potential to add value in the representation of extreme precipitation and the mean surface temperature in South America. However, this condition is not applicable throughout the whole continent but is particularly relevant in those terrestrial regions where the surface forcing is strong, such as the Andes Cordillera or the coasts of the continent.     

Coral recruitment and potential recovery of eutrophied and blast fishing impacted reefs in Spermonde Archipelago,Indonesia

Coral recruitment was assessed in highly diverse and economically important Spermonde Archipelago, a reef system subjected to land-based sources of siltation/pollution and destructive fishing, over a period of 2 years. Recruitment on settlement tiles reached up to 705 spat m⁻² yr⁻¹ and was strongest in the dry season (July–October), except off-shore, where larvae settled earlier. Pocilloporidae dominated near-shore, while a more diverse community of Acroporidae, Poritidae and others settled in the less polluted mid-shelf and off-shore reefs. Non-coral fouling community appeared to hardly influence initial coral settlement on the tiles, although, this does not necessarily infer low coral post-settlement mortality, which may be enhanced at the near- and off-shore reefs as indicated by increased abundances of potential space competitors on natural substrate. Blast fishing showed no local reduction in coral recruitment and live hard coral cover increased in oligotrophic reefs, indicating potential for coral recovery, if managed effectively.     

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of water quality in the Uruguay River,Argentina

Abstract

Water quality of the Uruguay River was evaluated with multi-parametric (temperature, turbidity, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen) and sediment trap data (particle flux, total organic carbon and nitrogen contents) and correlated to precipitation, river discharge and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for the period 2006–2011. Hydro-meteorological parameters averaged 24–85% variability with coincident precipitation (200–400 mm month^-1), discharge (7000–28 000 m³ s^-1) and turbidity peaks (50–80 NTU) in the austral spring, and absolute maxima during the El Niño 2009 episode. Spectral analysis of discharge and sea-surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) showed consistent variance maxima at approx. 3 and 1.5 years. Deseasonalized discharge was significantly correlated to SSTA. During river floods, pH decreased (from 7.5 to 6.6) and particle dynamics peaked (turbidity: 15–80 NTU; vertical fluxes: 20–200 g m^-2 d^-1; total solid load: <1000 to 100 000 t d^-1),whereas TOC remained stable (3.2 ± 0.8%) and C/N ratios increased (10–12) due to the higher contribution of terrestrial detritus.     

Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile

Abstract

In determining the possible influence of climate change, it is important to understand the temporal and spatial variability in streamflow response for diverse climate zones. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the presence of changes in annual maximum peak flow for two climate zones in Chile over the past few decades. A general analysis, a flood frequency analysis and a trend analysis were used to study such changes between 1975 and 2008 for a semi-arid (29°S–32°S) and a temperate (36°S–38°S) climatic zone. The historic annual maxima, minima and mean flows, as well as decadal mean peak flow, were compared over the period of record. The Gumbel distribution was selected to compare the 30-year flood values of two ±15-year intervals, which showed that streamflow decreased by an average of 19.5% in the semi-arid stations and increased by an average of 22.6% in the temperate stations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the temporal changes in streamflows, with negative trends being observed in 87% of the stations analysed in the semi-arid zone, and positive trends in 57% of those analysed in the temperate zone. These differences in streamflow response between climate zones could be related to recent documented increases in altitude of the zero-degree isotherm in the Andes Mountains of Chile, since most of the significant positive and negative changes were detected in first-order rivers located closer to this mountain range.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Lins

Citation Pizarro, R., Vera, M., Valdés, R., Helwig, B., and Olivares, C., 2013. Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 300–311.     

Evaluating Volumetric Glacier Change Methods Using Airborne Laser Scanning Data

Assessments of geodetic volume change are widely used in glaciology and have a long tradition dating back to the nineteenth century. Over time, the geodetic method and corresponding data storage have been developed further, but the resulting methodological heterogeneity can lead to errors that are difficult to separate from other survey uncertainties. In this study we used high‐resolution airborne laser scanning data from the Findelengletscher in the Swiss Alps to evaluate state‐of‐the‐art volumetric glacier change methods. For the first time we have been able to simulate errors arising from different geodetic methods and spatial resolutions. The evaluation showed that, although the digital elevation models were perfectly co‐registered, systematic and random method‐ and scale‐dependent errors still occurred. These errors have an impact on the resulting volume changes at lower spatial resolutions and may lead to exponentially larger uncertainties. Volume changes from contour methods provided reasonably accurate results, while volumetric change assessments from central profile lines were especially prone to biases at any scale.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate history of a perennial river canyon in the Río Salado basin (22°S) of Northern Chile

Plant macrofossils from 33 rodent middens sampled at three sites between 2910 and 3150 m elevation in the main canyon of the Río Salado, northern Chile, yield a unique record of vegetation and climate over the past 22,000 cal yr BP. Presence of low-elevation Prepuna taxa throughout the record suggests that mean annual temperature never cooled by more than 5°C and may have been near-modern at 16,270 cal yr BP. Displacements in the lower limits of Andean steppe and Puna taxa indicate that mean annual rainfall was twice modern at 17,520–16,270 cal yr BP. This pluvial event coincides with infilling of paleolake Tauca on the Bolivian Altiplano, increased ENSO activity inferred from a marine core near Lima, abrupt deglaciation in southern Chile, and Heinrich Event 1. Moderate to large increases in precipitation also occurred at 11,770–9550 (Central Atacama Pluvial Event), 7330–6720, 3490–2320 and at 800 cal yr BP. Desiccation occurred at 14,180, 8910–8640, and 4865 cal yr BP. Compared to other midden sites in the region, early Holocene desiccation seems to have happened progressively earlier farther south. Emerging trends from the cumulative midden record in the central Atacama agree at millennial timescales with improved paleolake chronologies for the Bolivian Altiplano, implying common forcing through changes in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature gradients.     

GIS-Based Slope Stability Analysis,Chuquicamata Open Pit Copper Mine,Chile

The risk of slope failure in the Chuquicamata open-pit mine was analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software and modeling techniques. Models incorporated various component layers at a relatively large map scale (1:5000): alteration, geotechnical unit, proximity to major faults (VIF), GSI (geological strength index), slope (from digital elevation model), proximity to watertable (difference grid between topography and modeled watertable), and composite structural density grid (VIF, smaller faults, and fracture frequency); not all layers were used in all models. Three modeling techniques were used: fuzzy logic, in which parameters in each component layer were ranked by mine geotechnical experts according to their influence in promoting slope failure, and two data-driven techniques, weights-of-evidence and logistic regression, in which statistical correlation of training points (known failures) with parameters were used to derive a relative probability of failure. Because most slope failures are controlled by structure, VIF and smaller faults were divided by orientation into subsets with dip direction parallel, opposite, and normal to slope aspect; these orientations promote circular and planar, toppling, and wedge-type failures, respectively. Density grids of these subsets show high-risk areas for individual failure types. The models demonstrate sensitivity of the analysis to (1) selection of component layers, (2) selection of training points, (3) classification and ranking of categorical parameters, and (4) data problems in certain layers. Predicted high-risk zones in the final models show a high degree of correspondence with recent, post-model failures. Such models can be used to anticipate future pit design concerns. The results presented here illustrate how vast amounts of data, in multiple geo-referenced layers, can be analyzed and modeled using GIS techniques for predictive studies at relatively large map scales. Such modeling techniques could provide a powerful tool for predictive modeling in a vast array of large-map-scale applications requiring similar data integration and evaluation.     

Sn-polymetallic greisen-type deposits associated with late-stage rapakivi granites, Brazil: fluid inclusion and stable isotope characteristics

Tin-polymetallic greisen-type deposits in the Itu Rapakivi Province and Rondônia Tin Province, Brazil are associated with late-stage rapakivi fluorine-rich peraluminous alkali-feldspar granites. These granites contain topaz and/or muscovite or zinnwaldite and have geochemical characteristics comparable to the low-P sub-type topaz-bearing granites. Stockworks and veins are common in Oriente Novo (Rondônia Tin Province) and Correas (Itu Rapakivi Province) deposits, but in the Santa Bárbara deposit (Rondônia Tin Province) a preserved cupola with associated bed-like greisen is predominant. The contrasting mineralization styles reflect different depths of formation, spatial relationship to tin granites, and different wall rock/fluid proportions. The deposits contain a similar rare-metal suite that includes Sn (±W, ±Ta, ±Nb), and base-metal suite (Zn–Cu–Pb) is present only in Correas deposit. The early fluid inclusions of the Correas and Oriente Novo deposits are (1) low to moderate-salinity (0–19 wt.% NaCl eq.) CO₂-bearing aqueous fluids homogenizing at 245–450 °C, and (2) aqueous solutions with low CO₂, low to moderate salinity (0–14 wt.% NaCl eq.), which homogenize between 100 and 340 °C. In the Santa Bárbara deposit, the early inclusions are represented by (1) low-salinity (5–12 wt.% NaCl eq.) aqueous fluids with variable CO₂ contents, homogenizing at 340 to 390 °C, and (2) low-salinity (0–3 wt.% NaCl eq.) aqueous fluid inclusions, which homogenize at 320–380 °C. Cassiterite, wolframite, columbite–tantalite, scheelite, and sulfide assemblages accompany these fluids. The late fluid in the Oriente Novo and Correas deposit was a low-salinity (0–6 wt.% NaCl eq.) CO₂-free aqueous solution, which homogenizes at (100–260 °C) and characterizes the sulfide–fluorite–sericite association in the Correas deposit. The late fluid in the Santa Bárbara deposit has lower salinity (0–3 wt.% NaCl eq.) and characterizes the late-barren-quartz, muscovite and kaolinite veins. Oxygen isotope thermometry coupled with fluid inclusion data suggest hydrothermal activity at 240–450 °C, and 1.0–2.6 kbar fluid pressure at Correas and Oriente Novo. The hydrogen isotope composition of breccia-greisen, stockwork, and vein fluids (δ¹⁸O_quartz from 9.9‰ to 10.9‰, δD_H2O from 4.13‰ to 6.95‰) is consistent with a fluid that was in equilibrium with granite at temperatures from 450 to 240 °C. In the Santa Bárbara deposit, the inferred temperatures for quartz-pods and bed-like greisens are much higher (570 and 500 °C, respectively), and that for the cassiterite-quartz-veins is 415 °C. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of greisen and quartz-pods fluids (δ¹⁸O_qtz-H2O=5.5–6.1‰) indicate that the fluid equilibrated with the albite granite, consistent with a magmatic origin. The values for mica (δ¹⁸O_mica-H2O=3.3–9.8‰) suggest mixing with meteoric water. Late muscovite veins (δ¹⁸O_qtz-H2O=−6.4‰) and late quartz (δ¹⁸O_mica-H2O=−3.8‰) indicate involvement of a meteoric fluid. Overall, the stable isotope and fluid inclusion data imply three fluid types: (1) an early orthomagmatic fluid, which equilibrated with granite; (2) a mixed orthomagmatic-meteoric fluid; and (3) a late hydrothermal meteoric fluid. The first two were responsible for cassiterite, wolframite, and minor columbite–tantalite precipitation. Change in the redox conditions related to mixing of magmatic and meteoric fluids favored important sulfide mineralization in the Correas deposit.