Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961–1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071–2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions.     

Numerical simulations of the tropical air-sea planetary boundary layer

A one-dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer was used to investigate thermal and kinetic energy budgets. The simulation experiments were based on two sets of data. The first set was based on a ‘typical’ June with climatological data extracted for the oceanic region slightly northeast of Barbados. The second set used data from the third phase of project BOMEX, for approximately the same area and time of year as the first set. Comparison with observations of three simulated elements (viz., sea surface temperature and wind and humidity at 6 m) which are important in determining the near-interface energy transports shows that:

1. the model is capable of realistic simulations of both ‘typical’ conditions, and conditions for a specific four-day period;
2. the model is capable of realistically simulating the differences between prevailing values of these parameters in the two cases (‘typical’ and specific four-day period).

The simulated interface fluxes are those of incoming and outgoing short- and long-wave radiation; transmitted radiation at -0.5 m in the ocean, sensible heat transfer into the ocean and air, and latent heat flux of evaporation. Comparison with observational analyses shows that the diurnal variations in net radiation and heat storage in the mixed layer are realistically simulated. The simulated values of evaporation are consistent with other estimates for both ‘typical’ conditions and specific conditions during this four-day period. The rate of heat storage varies between +51 and -37 percent of the diurnal maximum incoming radiation, and the evaporation varies between +16% and -13% of this term. The non-dimensional transfer coefficients (C _D, C_T, C_q) computed from the model show general agreement with the coefficients calculated from observations in the simulated region (Pondet al., 1971). The simulated vertical profiles of temperature are in general agreement with observed profiles, except in the uppermost portions of the atmospheric boundary layer where deviations of approximately 1.5C occur. Simulated vertical profiles of wind speed are generally consistent with observed profiles, with the largest deviations appearing to be of the order of 0.5 m s^-1. Simulated vertical profiles of the eddy fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum are generally consistent with Bunker's (1970) aircraft-based measurements of these quantities. The time averages of these simulated profiles show regular decreases with height, while simulated profiles for specific hours of the day show intermediate maxima and minima, which are also seen in the measured profiles. The vertically integrated kinetic energy budgets of the modelled atmospheric layer are presented through the four terms of the kinetic energy budget, viz., the upper and the lower boundary drags, dissipation, and potential-to-kinetic conversion. The dominant terms in the atmospheric energy budgets are the production and dissipation terms, with kinetic energy being exported both to the overlying atmospheric layer and to the underlying oceanic layer at rates of about 2 to 6% of the production, respectively. Comparisons between the climatological and BOMEX simulations are presented. The vertically integrated humidity budgets are presented for the two simulation experiments. Under ‘typical’ conditions, the humidity budget reveals an upper boundary flux of about +29% of the lower boundary flux with the vertically integrated advective flux being -59% of the lower flux. For the specific four-day simulation, the upper boundary flux and advection are about +28 and -70%, respectively, of the lower boundary flux.     

Risk perception and decision-making: do farmers consider risks from climate change?

This paper provides one of the first empirical studies that examine the impact of climate change adaptation practices on technical efficiency (TE) among smallholder farmers in Nepal. An adaptation index is used to explore the impact of farmers’ adaptation on TE using the stochastic frontier analysis framework. Data for six districts of Nepal representing all three agro-ecological regions (terai, hill, and mountain) were collected from a focus group discussion, a stakeholder workshop and a household survey. The survey shows that about 91% of the farming households have adopted at least one practice to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change. Empirical results reveal that adaptation is an important factor explaining efficiency differentials among farming households. Those adopting a greater number of adaptation practices on a larger scale are, on average, found to be 13% more technically efficient than those adopting fewer practices on smaller scale. The empirical results also show that average TE is only 0.72, indicating that there are opportunities for farming households in Nepal to further improve productive efficiency, on average by 28%. Other important factors that explain variations in the productive efficiency across farming households include farmer’s education level, irrigation facilities, market access, and social capital such as farmer’s participations in relevant agricultural organizations and clubs. This study provides empirical evidence to policy makers that small scale adjustments made by farmers in response to climate change impacts are effective in improving farmers’ efficiency in agriculture production. This indicates a need for farmers’ involvement in climate change adaptation planning.     

Sedimentary provenance in the central Ribeira belt based on laser-ablation ICPMSPb/Pb zircon ages

²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages from 420 zircons from 9 upper amphibolite and granulite facies quartzites of the post-1.8 Ga metasedimentary cover from the Occidental and Oriental terranes from the Neoproterozoic central Ribeira belt, in eastern Brazil, are discussed. Ages from the Occidental terrane show that Proterozoic ages predominate with a modal class at 2.1–2.2 Ga and that Archean ages are less common and lie within the 2.5–3.6 Ga range. A wider dispersion on Proterozoic ages down to 1.1 Ga and youngest Neoproterozoic ages (550–700 Ma) were also observed and could be related to the Brasiliano/PanAfrican metamorphic events. The data show that detrital sediments of the Occidental terrane were derived predominantly from erosion of a 1.8–2.2 Ga Paleoproterozoic terrane with a small proportion of a 2.6–3.6 Ga Archean crust. Ages from the Oriental terrane are greatly dispersed, but show a significant proportion of ages between 1.7 and 2.1 Ga, although the great majority are between 0.5 and 1.6 Ga. Only 3 out of 144 grains yield Archean ages, between 2.5 and 2.9 Ga. Based on the greatest errors observed on the data from the Oriental Terrane (100–300 Ma), and a continuum of obtained ages between 2072 Ma (Paleoproterozoic) and 517 Ma (Cambrian), the more plausible interpretation is that the dispersion of ages results from partial resetting of the U–Pb system by Brasiliano metamorphism in Proterozoic–Archean zircons, although a Mesoproterozoic source could not be discarded.     

The ecological implications of a Yakutian mammoth's last meal

Part of a large male woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was preserved in permafrost in northern Yakutia. It was radiocarbon dated to ca. 18,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 22,500 cal yr BP). Dung from the lower intestine was subjected to a multiproxy array of microscopic, chemical, and molecular techniques to reconstruct the diet, the season of death, and the paleoenvironment. Pollen and plant macro-remains showed that grasses and sedges were the main food, with considerable amounts of dwarf willow twigs and a variety of herbs and mosses. Analyses of 110-bp fragments of the plastid rbcL gene amplified from DNA and of organic compounds supplemented the microscopic identifications. Fruit-bodies of dung-inhabiting Ascomycete fungi which develop after at least one week of exposure to air were found inside the intestine. Therefore the mammoth had eaten dung. It was probably mammoth dung as no bile acids were detected among the fecal biomarkers analysed. The plant assemblage and the presence of the first spring vessels of terminal tree-rings of dwarf willows indicated that the animal died in early spring. The mammoth lived in extensive cold treeless grassland vegetation interspersed with wetter, more productive meadows. The study demonstrated the paleoecological potential of several biochemical analytical techniques.     

Combination of multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River with spatio-temporal kriging

River water-level time series at fixed geographical locations, so-called virtual stations, have been computed from single altimeter crossings for many years. Their temporal resolution is limited by the repeat cycle of the individual altimetry missions. The combination of all altimetry measurements along a river enables computing a water-level time series with improved temporal and spatial resolutions. This study uses the geostatistical method of spatio-temporal ordinary kriging to link multi-mission altimetry data along the Mekong River. The required covariance models reflecting the water flow are estimated based on empirical covariance values between altimetry observations at various locations. In this study, two covariance models are developed and tested in the case of the Mekong River: a stationary and a non-stationary covariance model. The proposed approach predicts water-level time series at different locations along the Mekong River with a temporal resolution of 5 days. Validation is performed against in situ data from four gauging stations, yielding RMS differences between 0.82 and 1.29 m and squared correlation coefficients between 0.89 and 0.94. Both models produce comparable results when used for combining data from Envisat, Jason-1, and SARAL for the time period between 2002 and 2015. The quality of the predicted time series turns out to be robust against a possibly decreasing availability of altimetry mission data. This demonstrates that our method is able to close the data gap between the end of the Envisat and the launch of the SARAL mission with interpolated time series.     

Prograde and retrograde fluid-rock interaction in calc-silicates northwest of the Idaho batholith: stable isotopic evidence

Carbon and oxygen isotopic analyses of silicate and carbonate minerals indicate that isotopic compositions in metasediments of the Wallace Formation (Belt Supergroup) exposed northwest of the Idaho batholith have been affected by both prograde and retrograde fluid-rock interaction. Silicates retain isotopic fractionations that reflect equilibration at peak metamorphic temperatures. In contrast, calcite oxygen isotopic compositions range from δ¹⁸O(Calcite)=+2.3 to +18.6‰ SMOW (standard mean oceanic water) and indicate that some calcites have exchanged with low-δ¹⁸O meteorichydrothermal fluids. Values of Δ¹⁸O (Quartz-Calcite) as large as +15.5 clearly indicate that the isotopic depletion of these calcites postdates the peak of regional metamorphism. Carbon isotopic compositions of ¹⁸O-depleted calcites are not significantly shifted relative to δ¹³C values in undepleted calcites, suggesting that the retrograde fluid was carbon-poor. Petrographically, retrograde fluid-rock interaction is associated with the occurrence of fine-grained, highly-luminescent calcite overgrowths on less-luminescent, metamorphic calcites, slight to moderate argillic alteration, and pseudomorphing of scapolite porphyroblasts by fine-grained albite. Retrograde isotopic depletions may be related to shallow meteoric-hydrothermal fluid flow developed around the Idaho batholith after intrusion and rapid uplift of the terrane. Peak metamorphic isotopic compositions in the Wallace Formation reflect mineralogically heterogeneous protolith compositions and isotopic fractionation due to devolatilization and/or infiltration. Variability in oxygen isotopic compositions on the order of 4–6‰ within the same rock type can be attributed to the combined effects of inherited isotopic compositions and isotopic shifts resulting from prograde devolatilization. Isotopic and compositional heterogeneity on the scale of mm to m precludes generalization of isotopic gradients on a regional scale. The isotopic data presented here, and metamorphic fluid compositions determined in previous studies, are best reconciled with heterogeneous bulk compositions, dominantly channelized prograde and retrograde fluid flow, and locally low fluid-rock ratios.     

Scraping and extirpating: two strategies to induce recovery of diseased Gorgonia ventalina sea fans

Coral diseases are currently playing a major role in the worldwide decline in coral reef integrity. One of the coral species most afflicted by disease in the Caribbean, and which has been the focus of much research, is the sea fan Gorgonia ventalina. There is, however, very little information regarding the capacity of sea fans to recover after being infected. The aim of this study was to compare the rehabilitation capacity of G. ventalina after diseased‐induced lesions were eliminated either by scraping or extirpating the affected area. Scraping consisted of removing any organisms overgrowing the axial skeleton from the diseased area as well as the purple tissue bordering these overgrowths using metal bristle brushes. Extirpation consisted of cutting the diseased area, including the surrounding purpled tissue, using scissors. The number of scraped colonies that fully or partially rehabilitated after being manipulated and the rates at which the sea fans whose lesions were scrapped grew back healthy tissue were compared among: (i) colonies that inhabited two sites with contrasting environmental conditions; (ii) colonies of different sizes and (iii) colonies with different ratios of area of legions to total colony area (LA/CA). Both strategies proved to be very successful in eliminating lesions from sea fans. In the case of scraping, over 51% of the colonies recovered between 80% and 100% of the lost tissue within 16 months. The number of colonies that recovered from scraping was similar among sites and among colony sizes, but differed significantly depending on the relative amount of lesion to colony area (LA/CA). When lesions were extirpated, lesions did not reappear in any of the colonies. We conclude that lesion scraping is useful for eliminating relatively small lesions (i.e. LA/CA < 10%), as these are likely to recover in a shorter period of time, whereas for relatively large lesions (LA/CA ≥ 10%) it is more appropriate to extirpate the lesion.     

Mt. Etna volcano high-resolution topography: airborne LiDAR modelling validated by GPS data

High-resolution digital topography is essential for land management and planning in any type of territory as well as the reproduction of the Earth surface in a geocoded digital format that allows several Digital Earth applications. In a volcanic environment, Digital Elevation Models are a valid reference for multi-temporal analyses aimed to observe frequent changes of a volcano edifice and for the relative detailed morphological and structural analyses. For the first time, a DTM (Digital Terrain Model) and a DSM (Digital Surface Model) covering the entire Mt. Etna volcano (Italy) derived from the same airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) are here presented. More than 250 million 3D LiDAR points have been processed to distinguish ground elements from natural and anthropic features. The end product is the highly accurate representation of Mt. Etna landscape (DSM) and ground topography (DTM) dated 2005. Both models have a high spatial resolution of 2?m and cover an area of 620?km². The DTM has been validated by GPS ground control points. The vertical accuracy has been evaluated, resulting in a root-mean-square-error of ±?0.24?m. The DTM is available as electronic supplement and represents a valid support for various scientific studies.