The Energy Balance Experiment EBEX-2000. Part I: overview and energy balance

An overview of the Energy Balance Experiment (EBEX-2000) is given. This experiment studied the ability of state-of-the-art measurements to close the surface energy balance over a surface (a vegetative canopy with large evapotranspiration) where closure has been difficult to obtain. A flood-irrigated cotton field over uniform terrain was used, though aerial imagery and direct flux measurements showed that the surface still was inhomogeneous. All major terms of the surface energy balance were measured at nine sites to characterize the spatial variability across the field. Included in these observations was an estimate of heat storage in the plant canopy. The resultant imbalance still was 10%, which exceeds the estimated measurement error. We speculate that horizontal advection in the layer between the canopy top and our flux measurement height may cause this imbalance, though our estimates of this term using our measurements resulted in values less than what would be required to balance the budget. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation     

Spatially explicit surface energy budget and partitioning with remote sensing and flux measurements in a boreal region of Interior Alaska

Extrapolating energy fluxes between the ground surface and the atmospheric boundary layer from point-based measurements to spatially explicit landscape estimation is critical to understand and quantify the energy balance components and exchanges in the hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere. This information is difficult to quantify and are often lacking. Using a Landsat image (acquired on 5 August 2004), the flux measurements from three eddy covariance flux towers (a 1987 burn, a 1999 burn, and an unburned control site) and a customized satellite-based surface energy balance model of Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), we estimated net radiation, sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), and soil heat flux (G) for the boreal Yukon River Basin of Interior Alaska. The model requires user selection of two extreme conditions present within the image area to calibrate and anchor the sensible flux output. One is the “hot” condition which refers to a bare soil condition with specified residual evaporation rates. Another one is the “cold” condition which refers to a fully transpiring vegetation such as full-cover agricultural crops. We selected one bare field as the “hot” condition while we explored three different scenarios for the “cold” pixel because of the absence of larger expanses of agricultural fields within the image area. For this application over boreal forest, selecting agricultural fields whose evapotranspiration was assumed to be 1.05 times the alfalfa-based reference evapotranspiration as the “cold” pixel could result in large errors. Selecting an unburned flux tower site as the “cold” pixel could achieve acceptable results, but uncertainties remain about the energy balance closure of the flux towers. We found that METRIC performs reasonably well in partitioning energy fluxes in a boreal landscape.     

Going to the Extremes

Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments. An erratum to this article is available at . An erratum to this article can be found at     

Who participates in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and why: A quantitative assessment of the national representation of authors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of international representation in the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using expert authorship counts by country in each of the four IPCC assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Overall, we find that 45% of countries, all Non-Annex 1, have never had authors participate in the IPCC process; on the other hand, European and North American experts are make up more than 75% of all authors (N = 4394). Generalized linear models using negative binomial regression were used to quantitatively estimate the effect of a number of socio-economic, environmental and procedural factors influencing country-level participation in the IPCC. Per capita gross domestic product, population, English-speaking status, and levels of tertiary education were all found to be statistically significant drivers of authorship counts. In particular, participation by authors from English-speaking Non-Annex 1 countries is 2.5 times greater than those that are non-English speaking. Regionally small island nations of Oceania were the most severely under-represented group. South American and Asian countries had fewer authors, and African countries had more authors than what might be expected on the basis of demographic and socio-economic data. These differences across nations partly reflect existing scientific capacity that will be slow to change. However, the on-going under-representation of developing country scientists in the IPCC, particularly in the assessment of climate science (WGI) and climate mitigation (WGIII) warrants greater efforts to close the capacity gap.     

Black hole spin and radio loudness in a Λ cold dark matter universe

We use a combination of a cosmological N -body simulation of the concordance Λ cold dark matter paradigm and a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation to investigate the spin development of central supermassive black holes (BHs) and its relation to the BH host galaxy properties. In order to compute BH spins, we use the α model of Shakura & Sunyaev and consider the King et al. warped disc alignment criterion. The orientation of the accretion disc is inferred from the angular momentum of the source of accreted material, which bears a close relationship to the large-scale structure in the simulation. We find that the final BH spin depends almost exclusively on the accretion history and only weakly on the warped disc alignment. The main mechanisms of BH spin-up are found to be gas cooling processes and disc instabilities, a result that is only partially compatible with Monte Carlo models where the main spin-up mechanisms are major mergers and disc instabilities; the latter results are reproduced when implementing randomly oriented accretion discs in our model. Regarding the BH population, we find that more massive BHs, which are hosted by massive ellipticals, have higher spin values than less massive BHs, hosted by spiral galaxies. We analyse whether gas accretion rates and BH spins can be used as tracers of the radio loudness of active galactic nuclei (AGN). We find that the current observational indications of an increasing trend of radio-loud AGN fractions with stellar and BH mass can be easily obtained when placing lower limits on the BH spin, with a minimum influence from limits on the accretion rates; a model with random accretion disc orientations is unable to reproduce this trend. Our results favour a scenario where the BH spin is a key parameter to separate the radio-loud and radio-quiet galaxy populations.     

Incommensurate–normal phase transition in natural melilite: an in situ high-temperature X-ray single-crystal study

The structure of a natural melilite with chemical composition (Ca_1.87Sr_0.02Na_0.10K_0.02)_2.01(Mg_0.96Al_0.07)_1.03(Si_1.98Al_0.02)_2.00O₇ has been investigated by X-ray single-crystal diffraction methods within the temperature range 298–773 K. The values of the coefficient of the modulation wave vector were determined at 298 K, 323 K, 348 K, and 358 K. These values show a continuous linear decrease from 0.2833(6) at 298 K to 0.2763(9) at 358 K. The incommensurate phase undergoes a phase transition to the normal phase at 359 K. The refinements of the structure, carried out at 298 K, 348 K, 359 K, 373 K, 413 K, 463 K, 513 K, 573 K, 673 K, and 773 K, showed that the normal phase (high-temperature phase) does not significantly differ from the basic structure (the average structure of the incommensurate structure). This study confirms that in natural melilites with chemical composition close to that of åkermanite the wavelength of the incommensurate modulation increases when the temperature rises. The different behaviour of the q-vector as a function of temperature in natural and synthetic åkermanite is discussed.     

Paleontology,sedimentology and paleoenvironment of a new fossiliferous locality of the Jurassic Cañadón Asfalto Formation,Chubut Province,Argentina

A new Late Jurassic assemblage of “conchostracans”, ostracods, bivalves and caddisfly cases from the locality “Estancia La Sin Rumbo”, Chubut Province (Patagonia, Argentina) is recorded. The fossils occur in the upper part of an outcropping 45 m thick volcaniclastic lacustrine sequence of yellowish tuffs and tuffites of the Puesto Almada Member, which is the upper member of the Cañadón Asfalto Formation with U/Pb age of 161 ± 3 Ma. The sequence represents one sedimentary cycle composed of a (lower) hemicycle of expansion and a (higher) hemicycle of contraction of the water body. The invertebrates lived in small freshwater bodies during the periods of expansion of the lake. The occurrence of a great number of small spinicaudatans, associated with mud-cracks, is evidence of dry climatic conditions and suggests several local mortality events. The spinicaudatan record of the fushunograptid–orthestheriid (component of the Eosestheriopsis dianzhongensis fauna) and the presence of Congestheriella rauhuti Gallego and Shen, suggest a Late Jurassic (Oxfordian to Tithonian) age. Caddisfly cases are recorded for the first time in the Cañadón Asfalto Basin.     

Export stoichiometry and migrant-mediated flux of phosphorus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Export processes play a major role in regulating global marine primary production by reducing the efficiency of nutrient cycling and turnover in surface waters. Most studies of euphotic zone export focus on passive fluxes, that is, sinking particles. However, active transport, the vertical transfer of material by migrating zooplankton, can also be an important component of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) removal from the surface ocean. Here we demonstrate that active transport is an especially important mechanism for phosphorus (P) removal from the euphotic zone at Station ALOHA (Hawaii Ocean Time-series program; 22°45′N, 158°W), a P-stressed site in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. Migrant excretions in this region are P-rich (C₅₁:N₁₂:P₁) relative to sinking particles (C₂₅₀:N₃₁:P₁), and migrant-mediated P fluxes are almost equal in magnitude (82%) to P fluxes from sediment traps. Migrant zooplankton biomass and therefore the importance of this P removal pathway relative to sinking fluxes has increased significantly over the past 12 years, suggesting that active transport may be a major driving force for enhanced P-limitation of biological production in the NPSG. We further assess the C:N:P composition of zooplankton size fractions at Station ALOHA (C₈₈:N₁₈:P₁, on average) and discuss migrant-mediated P export in light of the balance between zooplankton and suspended particle stoichiometries. We conclude that, because active transport is such a large component of the total P flux and significantly impacts ecosystem stoichiometry, export processes involving migrant zooplankton must be included in large-scale efforts to understand biogeochemical cycles.     

An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability

The natural sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the global oceans is evaluated in simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 models. In this evaluation, we examine how well the spatial structure of the SST variability matches between the observations and simulations on the basis of their leading empirical orthogonal functions-modes. Here we focus on the high-pass filter monthly mean time scales and the longer 5 years running mean time scales. We will compare the models and observations against simple null hypotheses, such as isotropic diffusion (red noise) or a slab ocean model, to illustrate the models skill in simulating realistic patterns of variability. Some models show good skill in simulating the observed spatial structure of the SST variability in the tropical domains and less so in the extra-tropical domains. However, most models show substantial deviations from the observations and from each other in most domains and particularly in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean on the longer (5 years running mean) time scale. In many cases the simple spatial red noise null hypothesis is closer to the observed structure than most models, despite the fact that the observed SST variability shows significant deviations from this simple spatial red noise null hypothesis. The CMIP models tend to largely overestimate the effective spatial number degrees of freedom and simulate too strongly localized patterns of SST variability at the wrong locations with structures that are different from the observed. However, the CMIP5 ensemble shows some improvement over the CMIP3 ensemble, mostly in the tropical domains. Further, the spatial structure of the SST modes of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 super ensemble is more realistic than any single model, if the relative explained variances of these modes are scaled by the observed eigenvalues.     

A variable lacustrine environment in Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba: Evidence from modern thecamoebian distribution

Thecamoebians (testate protozoan) were examined in 18 surface sediment samples from the North and South basins and the Narrows of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba. Significantly higher numbers of thecamoebians and tintinnids in the North Basin compared to the Narrows and South Basin are attributed to the effects of urban development around the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg. Human population growth in this area has led to increased nutrient concentration in runoff, causing eutrophication of the southern lake, which in turn allows for increased algal productivity. Cucurbitella tricuspis is found in large abundances in the South Basin, particularly close to the inlet of the Red and Assiniboine rivers. High abundances of this species have been attributed to eutrophic conditions, which this species appears to withstand more successfully than other species. Increases in domestic waste output, that have led to elevated heavy metal concentrations in lake bottom sediments of the South Basin, may have resulted in lower abundances of thecamoebians, further reducing competition.Strong currents in the Narrows cause a slightly coarser substrate and sweep away food sources such as phytoplankton. This results in a lower faunal abundance and slightly lower species richness of thecamoebians. Robust species such as the coarse-grained Difflugia viscidula and species which feed on bacteria such as Centropyxis aculeata show increased abundances.Modern thecamoebian assemblages are comparable to Late Holocene faunal associations in terms of species composition. Individual species abundances, however, have changed. For example, in the North Basin the Late Holocene dominance of Difflugia manicata is replaced by various strains of Difflugia oblonga during recent times. A common species of the South Basin from Late Holocene to recent times is Difflugia globulus. It would appear that faunal differences between basins are the result of differences in algal food sources.