A hybrid artificial neural network-numerical model for ground water problems

Numerical models constitute the most advanced physical-based methods for modeling complex ground water systems. Spatial and/or temporal variability of aquifer parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions (for transient simulations) can be assigned across the numerical model domain. While this constitutes a powerful modeling advantage, it also presents the formidable challenge of overcoming parameter uncertainty, which, to date, has not been satisfactorily resolved, inevitably producing model prediction errors. In previous research, artificial neural networks (ANNs), developed with more accessible field data, have achieved excellent predictive accuracy over discrete stress periods at site-specific field locations in complex ground water systems. In an effort to combine the relative advantages of numerical models and ANNs, a new modeling paradigm is presented. The ANN models generate accurate predictions for a limited number of field locations. Appending them to a numerical model produces an overdetermined system of equations, which can be solved using a variety of mathematical techniques, potentially yielding more accurate numerical predictions. Mathematical theory and a simple two-dimensional example are presented to overview relevant mathematical and modeling issues. Two of the three methods for solving the overdetermined system achieved an overall improvement in numerical model accuracy for various levels of synthetic ANN errors using relatively few constrained head values (i.e., cells), which, while demonstrating promise, requires further research. This hybrid approach is not limited to ANN technology; it can be used with other approaches for improving numerical model predictions, such as regression or support vector machines (SVMs).     

Surflan and oryzalin impair reproduction in the teleost medaka (Oryzias latipes)

We conducted studies to determine if the xenoestrogens Surflan and its active ingredient oryzalin, affect indices of reproductive fitness in medaka (Oryzias latipes). Oryzalin (0.5, 0.25mg/l) or Surflan (2.0 microl/l) and oryzalin (0.5mg/l) significantly increased the mean number of non-fertilized eggs produced by treated females paired with untreated males, or by untreated females paired with treated males. Oryzalin (1.0, 0.5, 0.25mg/l) and Surflan (3.8, 2.0, 1.0 microl/l) significantly affected the time to hatch of eggs from treated females paired with untreated males, and from untreated females paired with treated males. Surflan (3.8, 2.0, 1.0 microl/l) induced intersex lesions in 80-100% of males. Oryzalin-exposed males exhibited a significant increase in the incidence of necrotic spermatids and necrotic spermatogonia, while oryzalin-exposed females had significantly fewer immature oocytes and an increase in the occurrence of hyperplastic ovaries. Our results indicate that Surflan and oryzalin affect both reproduction and gonadal histology in male and female medaka.     

Food with a visible face: Traceability and the public promotion of private governance in the Japanese food system

The years since 2000 have seen a constant stream of high-profile scandals relating to food safety and food labeling in Japan. One response of Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) has been to promote food traceability as a mechanism to improve food safety and to provide reliable information to consumers about their food. MAFF’s main approach to traceability promotion, however, has not involved making traceability mandatory (as has been done in the EU) but encouraging private companies to adopt it. These actions constitute, I argue, an example of the public promotion of private governance. When viewed against the literature on the private governance of food safety and quality, MAFF’s traceability activities are surprising for three reasons: their forms and extent, the relative lack of interest the Ministry has shown in third-party certification, and the way MAFF has responded to concerns about the safety of imported food by focusing almost entirely on domestic traceability. I also argue, however, that looking at the literature from a Japanese perspective suggests that public encouragement is more central to the rise of private governance in the global agri-food system than is usually appreciated.     

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

Glacial and periglacial buzzsaws: fitting mechanisms to metaphors

The buzzsaw hypothesis refers to the potential for glacial and periglacial processes to rapidly denude mountains at and above glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELAs), irrespective of uplift rates, rock type or pre-existing topography. Here the appropriateness of the buzzsaw metaphor is examined alongside questions of the links between glacial erosion and ELAs, and whether the glacial system can produce low-relief surfaces or limit summit heights. Plateau fragments in mountains on both active orogens and passive margins that have been cited as products of glacial and periglacial buzzsaw erosion instead generally represent dissected remnants of largely inherited, pre-glacial relief. Summit heights may correlate with ELAs but no causal link need be implied as summit erosion rates are low, cirque headwalls may not directly abut summits and, on passive margins, cirques are cut into pre-existing mountain topography. Any simple links between ELAs and glacial erosion break down on passive margins due to topographic forcing of ice-sheet growth, and to the km-scale vertical swaths through which ELAs have shifted through the Quaternary. Glaciers destroy rather than create low-relief rock surfaces through the innate tendency for ice flow to be faster, thicker and warmer along valleys. The glacial buzzsaw cuts down.     

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.      

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

Measurement of seabed sound speeds from head waves in shallow water

Acoustic signals from small explosive charges have been measured with sonobuoys on twelve tracks in Australian northern shallow waters with the aim of assessing whether useful geoacoustic information could be obtained. Using the frequency band from 14 to 70 Hz, travel times of head waves were monitored, and the sound speeds and depths of corresponding interfaces in the seabed were derived. The water sound speed varied a little with range, and its depth dependence was allowed for by using its average value. Head waves from interfaces indistinguishable from the seafloor (the water/seabed interface) were detected on only three of the tracks, with derived sound speeds of 2100 to 2300 m/s. The first sub-bottom interfaces were from 50 to 600 m beneath the seafloor, and their sound speeds ranged from around 2000 m/s to 6400 m/s. Thus the head waves were from chalk or limestone, cemented sediments in which sound-speed gradients would be small. The amount of data obtained for the seafloor was limited by incoherence of the signals and, for some tracks, by excessive spacing between shots. The incoherence is generally attributed to multiple head waves that are individually unresolvable, while on two tracks there were indications of medal ground waves. Occasional anomalous data were obtained, but generally the assumptions of the simple interpretation method were found to be valid. Since no curvature in the range-time lines was observed, there was no evidence of sub-bottom sound-speed gradients being significant     

Glacial Lake Victoria,a high‐level Antarctic Lake inferred from lacustrine deposits in Victoria Valley

We present evidence of a large lake (Glacial Lake Victoria) that existed in Victoria Valley in the dry valleys region of Antarctica between at least 20 000 and 8600 ¹⁴C yr BP. At its highstands, Glacial Lake Victoria covered 100 km² and was ca. 200 m deep. The chronology for lake‐level changes comes from 87 AMS radiocarbon dates of lacustrine algae preserved in deltas and glaciolacustrine deposits that extend up to 185 m above present‐day lakes on the valley floor. The existence of Glacial Lake Victoria, as well as other large lakes in the dry valleys, indicates a climate regime significantly different from that of today at the last glacial maximum and in the early Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.