PSHA: is it science?

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is beginning to be seen as unreliable. The problem with PSHA is that its data are inadequate and its logic is defective. Much more reliable, and more scientific, are deterministic procedures, especially when coupled with engineering judgment.     

Seismic response of the Mexico City Basin: A review of twenty years of research

Mexico City, political and economic center of Mexico, was founded in a lake, at more than 2000 m above sea level. The lacustrine mud under the downtown area is associated with high seismic risk. Twenty years after the destructive 1985 earthquake (Ms = 8.1) we review published research on seismic response in the Mexico Basin, especially seismic and microtremor studies on soft ground and the influence of the seismic response of lake mud on damage.     

The Oaxaca gap: A case history

An attempted use of seismic gap observations to predict a large earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico is discussed. The observations were initially published in a scientific journal and were subsequently distorted by noncientists, who predicted a major earthquake and tsunami to take place at Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca on 23 April 1978. Public reactions and property losess sustained by individuals and communities were comparable to those expected from an actual earthquake. A revision of epicenter locations from the NOAA data file revealed that a number of earthquakes did occur in the alleged gap but had been excluded because their reported focal depth was in excess of 60 km. It is shown that the probability that the number of earthquakes in two consecutive time intervals of a stationary Poisson process differs by an amount which would be reported as a seismic gap is of the order of 5% or more for Oaxaca. This means that spurious seismic gaps would be observed in one out of 20 data runs. The possibility of detecting a true interval of abnormal quiescence in a random earthquake sequence appears to be fairly remote in this case.     

The limits of self-similarity

Numerical experiments on simulating ruptures of a one-dimensional plate boundary suggest that certain basic features of seismicity (including multiple ruptures and aftershock sequences) can be adequately reproduced if one assumes the existence of an elementary particle (or geon) of fault dynamics. Some general consequences of corpuscular assumptions in the earth sciences are discussed, with particular reference to the estimation of hazard.