Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change

Considerable progress has been made in integrating carbon, nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics into global-scale physical climate models. Scientists are exploring ways to extend the resolution of the biosphere within these Earth system models (ESMs) to include impacts on global distribution and abundance of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. This paper compares different methods for modeling fish and shellfish responses to climate change on global and regional scales. Several different modeling approaches are considered including: direct applications of ESM’s, use of ESM output for estimation of shifts in bioclimatic windows, using ESM outputs to force single- and multi-species stock projection models, and using ESM and physical climate model outputs to force regional bio-physical models of varying complexity and mechanistic resolution. We evaluate the utility of each of these modeling approaches in addressing nine key questions relevant to climate change impacts on living marine resources. No single modeling approach was capable of fully addressing each question. A blend of highly mechanistic and less computationally intensive methods is recommended to gain mechanistic insights and to identify model uncertainties.     

An assessment of oceanic variability for 1960–2010 from the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has developed an ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) system based on the fully coupled climate model, CM2.1, in order to provide reanalyzed coupled initial conditions that are balanced with the climate prediction model. Here, we conduct a comprehensive assessment for the oceanic variability from the latest version of the ECDA analyzed for 51 years, 1960–2010. Meridional oceanic heat transport, net ocean surface heat flux, wind stress, sea surface height, top 300 m heat content, tropical temperature, salinity and currents are compared with various in situ observations and reanalyses by employing similar configurations with the assessment of the NCEP’s climate forecast system reanalysis (Xue et al. in Clim Dyn 37(11):2511–2539, 2011). Results show that the ECDA agrees well with observations in both climatology and variability for 51 years. For the simulation of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and global salinity variability, the ECDA shows a good performance compared to existing reanalyses. The ECDA also shows no significant drift in the deep ocean temperature and salinity. While systematic model biases are mostly corrected with the coupled data assimilation, some biases (e.g., strong trade winds, weak westerly winds and warm SST in the southern oceans, subsurface temperature and salinity biases along the equatorial western Pacific boundary, overestimating the mixed layer depth around the subpolar Atlantic and high-latitude southern oceans in the winter seasons) are not completely eliminated. Mean biases such as strong South Equatorial Current, weak Equatorial Under Current, and weak Atlantic overturning transport are generated during the assimilation procedure, but their variabilities are well simulated. In terms of climate variability, the ECDA provides good simulations of the dominant oceanic signals associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the whole analyzed period, 1960–2010.     

龙口市污水灌区与清水灌区冬小麦植被指数变化差异分析

为了研究污水灌溉对农田土壤环境和作物生长的影响,利用2008—2009年10期中国环境与灾害监测预报小卫星(HJ-1A)CCD1影像数据,结合龙口市冬小麦物候期的变化特征提取出单一冬小麦种植区,反演了冬小麦生长期内的归一化植被指数(NDVI),并对污水灌区和清水灌区的冬小麦植被指数进行比对分析,最后结合相应的重归一化植被指数(RDVI)和叶面积指数(LAI)进行验证。结果显示,研究区内污水灌溉已经对灌区的作物生长产生了一定的影响,污水灌溉区作物的生长状况明显不及清水灌溉区作物长势。说明污水灌溉会导致冬小麦的长势变差,对污水排放的控制和污水无污化处理势在必行。     

Characteristics of dynamic strain and strength of frozen silt under long-term dynamic loading

The dynamic strain and strength of frozen silt under long-term dynamic loading are studied based on creep tests. Three groups of tests are performed (Groups I, II, and III). The initial deviator stresses of Groups I and II are same and the dynamic stress amplitude of Group II is twice as that of Group I. The minimum value of dynamic stress in Group III is near zero and its dynamic stress amplitude is larger than those of Groups I and II. In tests of all three groups there are similar change trends of accumulative strain, but with different values. The accumulative strain curves consist of three stages, namely, the initial stage, the steady stage, and the gradual flow stage. In the tests of Groups I and II, during the initial stage with vibration times less than 50 loops the strain amplitude decreased with the increase of vibration times and then basically remained constant, fluctuating in a very small range. For the tests of Group III, during the initial and steady stages the strain amplitude decreased with the increase of vibration times, and then increased rapidly in the gradual flow stage. The dynamic strength of frozen silt decreases and trends to terminal dynamic strength as the vibration times of loading increase.     

Preliminary limits of a logarithmic correction to the Newtonian gravitational potential in binary pulsars

We obtain preliminary limits on a logarithmic correction to the Newtonian gravitational potential by using five binary pulsars:PSR J0737-3039,PSR B1534+12,PSR J1756-2251,PSR B1913+16 and PSR B2127+11C.This kind of correction may originate from fundamental frameworks,like string theories,effective models of gravity due to quantum effects and the non-local gravity scheme.We estimate the upper limit of the Tohline-Kuhn-Kruglyak parameter λ and the lower limit of the FabrisCampos parameter a,which parameterize the correction and are connected to each other by αλ=—1.By analyzing the advances of periastron of these binary pulsars,we find that the preliminary upper limit of α is 0.19±0.14 kpc~(-1) and the preliminary lower limit of λ is-5.2±3.8 kpc.They are compatible with the bounds based on dynamics of spiral galaxies but quite different from those given by solar system dynamics.These results indicate that this logarithmic correction might be more observable in current timings of binary pulsars than in motions of the solar system.     

辽宁省金矿成矿系列划分及特征

通过对辽宁省金矿地质特征和成矿规律的研究，将省内金矿划分为 4个成矿系列组合， 5个成矿系列类型， 7种成矿系列， 13个亚系列和 17个矿床（式）类型，并阐述各成矿系列的主要特征及规律，为金矿的预测和勘查提供理论依据。     

Another channel to detect close-in binary companions via gravitational microlensing

Gaudi & Gould showed that close companions of remote binary systems can be efficiently detected by using gravitational microlensing via the deviations in the lensing light curves induced by the existence of the lens companions. In this paper, we introduce another channel to detect faint close-in binary companions by using microlensing. This method utilizes a caustic-crossing binary lens event with a source also composed of binary stars, where the companion is a faint star. Detection of the companion is possible because the flux of the companion can be highly amplified when it crosses the lens caustic. The detection is facilitated since the companion is more amplified than the primary because it, in general, has a smaller size than the primary, and thus experiences less finite source effect. The method is an extension of the previous one suggested to detect close-in giant planets by Graff & Gaudi and Lewis & Ibata and further developed by Ashton & Lewis. From the simulations of realistic Galactic bulge events, we find that companions of K-type main-sequence or brighter stars can be efficiently detected from the current type of microlensing follow-up observations by using the proposed method. We also find that compared with the method of detecting lens companions for which the efficiency drops significantly for binaries with separations ≲0.2 of the angular Einstein ring radius, θ _E, the proposed method has an important advantage of being able to detect companions with substantially smaller separations down to ∼     .     

Potential benefits of increased application of water to paddy fields in Taiwan

The potential benefits of increased application of water to paddy fields in Taiwan are investigated in this paper. A conceptual model is used to represent the hydrological system of the paddy field. A technique is presented to estimate the parameters of the model. Field experiments also are performed for parameter estimation and model verification. The simulated results are in good agreement with the observed during model verification. With parameters estimated from the field data, the model is used to simulate the effects of applying water beyond current practice. The simulation results show that the downward percolation increases when the irrigation water increases. However, the percolation reaches a capacity rate no matter how large the amount of water applied. This phenomenon results from the existence of a hard layer below the paddy field. The effects of raising the height of levees around paddy fields are also studied. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山东省矿产资源形势与对策

山东省属于矿产资源中等丰富的省份.但人均占有量相对较小.矿产资源勘查程度较高,在开发中还存在着一些问题亟需解决.根据本省的资源情况,要充分利用国内外资金、资源和市场,以保障全省国民经济发展的需要.     

THE DYNAMIC MONITORING OF HORQIN SAND LAND USING REMOTE SENSING

Hurqin Sand Land is regarded as the typical region for studying the problem of desertification.The integra-tion of 3S(GIS,GPS and RS)techniques offer a most helpful method to study and monitor the dynamics of desertification.Based on the data derived from 3 periodsˊmultitemporal Landsat TM imagery of the 1990s,the regional land use and dynamo-ics of desertification in Horqin Sand Land were studied.The main results revealed that :1)as long as the general change tendency was concerned,the desertification of Horqin Sand Land would continue to spread;2)there was a gradual de-crease in the area of both moving sand dunes and semi-stabilized ones,which meant that fruitful progress had been made to control the desertification during the 1990s;3)as a result of unreasonable cultivation,the total area of stabilized sand dunes and grassland in the middle and western region decreased obviously.It suggested that the increasing damage caused by human was leading to the hazard of further desertification.So in the future,it is necessary to take more effect-tive measures to control the spread of desertification and restore the degraded ecosystems for the purpose of optimizing the global eco-environment in Horqin Sand Land.