Climate change, powerlessness and the commons dilemma: Assessing New Zealanders’ preparedness to act

Mitigating climate change is recognized as an increasingly urgent task that requires understanding a range of different strategies, including voluntary behavior change. Among the psychological barriers to behavior change are perceptions of powerlessness and the commons dilemma. This paper examines the association between these factors in a sample of New Zealand citizens and clarifies their importance in relation to other barriers to action to mitigate climate change, including uncertainty and perceived risk. Stronger perceptions of powerlessness and the commons dilemma were related to lower levels of action to mitigate climate change and lesser importance being placed upon climate change as an influence on individual actions. The perceived risk of climate change and the perception that humans influence climate change were the strongest predictors of mitigation action.     

气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识

气候变化下的水资源脆弱性和适应性管理研究成为全球和国家应对气候变化和保障水资源安全重点关注的问题,也是中国可持续发展面对的重大战略问题。介绍了水资源脆弱性和适应性管理的国内外最新研究进展;针对国家重大需求和国际科学前沿问题,综述了气候变化下水资源脆弱性和适应性管理存在的问题与挑战。提出了气候变化下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理理论与方法研究以应对气候变化的无悔为准则,与社会经济可持续发展、成本效益分析、利益相关者的多信息源的分析与综合决策相结合为原则,对适应性管理与脆弱性组成的互联互动系统及其风险与不确定性进行分析的新认识。     

Deconvolving the pre-Himalayan Indian margin-Tales of crustal growth and destruction

The metamorphic core of the Himalaya is composed of Indian cratonic rocks with two distinct crustal affinities that are defined by radiogenic isotopic geochemistry and detrital zircon age spectra. One is derived predominantly from the Paleoproterozoic and Archean rocks of the Indian cratonic interior and is either represented as metamorphosed sedimentary rocks of the Lesser Himalayan Sequence(LHS) or as slices of the distal cratonic margin. The other is the Greater Himalayan Sequence(GHS) whose provenance is less clear and has an enigmatic affinity. Here we present new detrital zircon Hf analyses from LHS and GHS samples spanning over 1000 km along the orogen that respectively show a striking similarity in age spectra and Hf isotope ratios. Within the GHS, the zircon age populations at 2800-2500 Ma,1800 Ma, 1000 Ma and 500 Ma can be ascribed to various Gondwanan source regions; however, a pervasive and dominant Tonianage population(～860-800 Ma) with a variably enriched radiogenic Hf isotope signature(eHf = 10 to-20) has not been identified from Gondwana or peripheral accreted terranes. We suggest this detrital zircon age population was derived from a crustal province that was subsequently removed by tectonic erosion. Substantial geologic evidence exists from previous studies across the Himalaya supporting the Cambro-Ordovician Kurgiakh Orogeny. We propose the tectonic removal of Tonian lithosphere occurred prior to or during this Cambro-Ordovician episode of orogenesis in a similar scenario as is seen in the modern Andean and Indonesian orogenies, wherein tectonic processes have removed significant portions of the continental lithosphere in a relatively short amount of time. This model described herein of the pre-Himalayan northern margin of Greater India highlights the paucity of the geologic record associated with the growth of continental crust. Although the continental crust is the archive of Earth history, it is vital to recognize the ways in which preservation bias and destruction of continental crust informs geologic models.     

Evolution of exhumation and erosion in western West Gondwanaland as recorded by detrital zircons of late Neoproterozoic and Cambrian sedimentary rocks of NW and Central Argentina

The evolution of the provenance areas for Late Neoproterozoic, Cambrian and Early Ordovician sedimentary and meta-sedimentary rocks of north central and northwest Argentina is discussed using 123 maximum ages of detrital zircons from 42 samples from this and previously published studies. Most detrital zircon ages fall into two groups: 1,200–900 Ma and 670–545 Ma. These ages are essentially identical for the non- to very low grade metamorphic late Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian Puncoviscana Formation and the low to high grade metamorphic rocks of Eastern Sierras Pampeanas. Hence, both units are related to similar provenance areas at the same time of sedimentation. The time span from zircon crystallization in the Earth’s crust to exhumation and erosion may be very long. This is important when determining maximum ages of sedimentary rocks. Variation of zircon maxima may also be influenced by concurrent sedimentary cover of proposed provenance areas. For the late Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic zircon age group, an active mountain range of the southwest Brazilian Sunsás orogen is the most probable provenance area. The younger, late Neoproterozoic zircons are related to the continuously developing mountains of the Brasiliano orogen of southwest and south central Brazil. Young zircons, up to 514 Ma, from fossil-bearing Puncoviscana and Suncho Formation outcrops are related to late Early Cambrian volcanism contemporaneous with sedimentation. This situation continues through the Late Cambrian to the Early Ordovician, but the Sunsás orogen provenance diminishes as possible Río de la Plata craton origins become important.     

Diel behavior of iron and other heavy metals in a mountain stream with acidic to neutral pH: Fisher Creek, Montana, USA

Three simultaneous 24-h samplings at three sites over a downstream pH gradient were conducted to examine diel fluctuations in heavy metal concentrations in Fisher Creek, a small mountain stream draining abandoned mine lands in Montana. Average pH values at the upstream (F1), middle (F2), and downstream (F3) monitoring stations were 3.31, 5.46, and 6.80, respectively. The downstream increase in pH resulted in precipitation of hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) and hydrous aluminum oxide (HAO) on the streambed. At F1 and F2, Fe showed strong diel cycles in dissolved concentration and Fe(II)/Fe(III) ratio; these cycles were attributed to daytime photoreduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II), reoxidation of Fe(II) to Fe(III), and temperature-dependent hydrolysis and precipitation of HFO. At the near-neutral downstream station, no evidence of Fe(III) photoreduction was observed, and suspended particles of HFO dominated the total Fe load. HFO precipitation rates between F2 and F3 were highest in the afternoon, due in part to reoxidation of a midday pulse of Fe²⁺ formed by photoreduction in the upper, acidic portions of the stream. Dissolved concentrations of Fe(II) and Cu decreased tenfold and 2.4-fold, respectively, during the day at F3. These changes were attributed to sorption onto fresh HFO surfaces. Results of surface complexation modeling showed good agreement between observed and predicted Cu concentrations at F3, but only when adsorption enthalpies were added to the thermodynamic database to take into account diel temperature variations. The field and modeling results illustrate that the degree to which trace metals adsorb onto actively forming HFO is strongly temperature dependent. This study is an example of how diel Fe cycles caused by redox and hydrolysis reactions can induce a diel cycle in a trace metal of toxicological importance in downstream waters.     

中国高分辨率温度和降水模拟数据的验证

PRISM模型是一种基于地理特征和回归统计方法生成气候图的模型。基于中国及其周边国家地区2450多个气象台站观测数据,以PRISM模型模拟生成了中国2.5′×2.5′(≈4～5km)逐月温度和降水数据。利用独立于模拟数据的中国生态系统研究网络18个野外观测站的长年气候观测数据,检验了PRISM模型的模拟结果,表明PRISM模型较好地模拟了我国温度和降水的空间分布及季节变化,除了在高山和亚热带地区由于地表覆盖和局部地形的差异影响模拟结果,其模拟值与实测值之间的趋势线同1∶1线基本一致,具有显著相关关系,其中降水效果略差     

Effects of topography on lofting gravity flows: Implications for the deposition of deep-water massive sands

Hyperpycnal flows are generated in the marine environment by sediment-laden fresh water discharge into the ocean. They frequently form at river mouths and are also generated in proximal ice-melting settings and are thought to be responsible for transporting a large proportion of suspended river sediment onto and off the continental shelf. Hyperpycnal flows are an example of gravity currents that display reversing buoyancy. This phenomenon is generated by the fresh water interstitial fluid being less dense than that of the ambient seawater. Thus after sufficient particles are sedimented the flow can become positively buoyant and loft, forming a rising plume. Here we present results from physical scale-modelling experiments of lofting gravity currents upon interaction with topography. Topography, in the form of a vertical obstacle, triggered a localised lofting zone on its upstream side. This lofting zone was maintained in a fixed position until the bulk density of the flow had reduced enough to allow lofting along its entire length. The obstructed lofting zone is associated with a sharp increase in deposit thickness. By inference these experimentally established lofting dynamics are applied to improve understanding of the potential for hyperpycnal flows to deposit deep-water massive sands. This study provides a depositional mechanism by which large volumes of sand can be deposited in the absence of traction and the fines removed, leaving thick deposits of structureless sand with a low percentage of mud. This conceptual model for the first time provides a framework by which the geometries of certain deep-water massive sands may be predicted within specific depositional and basinal settings. This is crucial to our understanding of massive sand deposits in modern and ancient turbiditic systems and in the commercial evaluation of hydrocarbon potential of such sedimentary successions.     

Bulk organic δC and C/N as indicators for sediment sources in the Pearl River delta and estuary,southern China

Preservation of organic matter in estuarine and coastal areas is an important process in the global carbon cycle. This paper presents bulk δ¹³C and C/N of organic matter from source to sink in the Pearl River catchment, delta and estuary, and discusses the applicability of δ¹³C and C/N as indicators for sources of organic matter in deltaic and estuarine sediments. In addition to the 91 surface sediment samples, other materials collected in this study cover the main sources of organic material to estuarine sediment. These are: terrestrial organic matter (TOM), including plants and soil samples from the catchment; estuarine and marine suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) from both summer and winter. Results show that the average δ¹³C of estuarine surface sediment increases from −25.0 ± 1.3‰ in the freshwater environment to −21.0 ± 0.2‰ in the marine environment, with C/N decreasing from 15.2 ± 3.3 to 6.8 ± 0.2. In the source areas, C₃ plants have lower δ¹³C than C₄ plants (−29.0 ± 1.8‰ and −13.1 ± 0.5‰ respectively). δ¹³C increases from −28.3 ± 0.8‰ in the forest soil to around −24.1‰ in both riverbank soil and mangrove soil due to increasing proportion of C₄ grasses. The δ¹³C_POC increases from −27.6 ± 0.8‰ in the freshwater areas to −22.4 ± 0.5‰ in the marine-brackish-water areas in winter, and ranges between −24.0‰ in freshwater areas and −25.4‰ in brackish-water areas in summer. Comparison of the δ¹³C and C/N between the sources and sink indicates a weakening TOM and freshwater POC input in the surface sedimentary organic matter seawards, and a strengthening contribution from the marine organic matter. Thus we suggest that bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis can be used to indicate sources of sedimentary organic matter in estuarine environments. Organic carbon in surface sediments derived from anthropogenic sources such as human waste and organic pollutants from industrial and agricultural activities accounts for less than 10% of the total organic carbon (TOC). Although results also indicate elevated δ¹³C of sedimentary organic matter due to some agricultural products such as sugarcane, C₃ plants are still the dominant vegetation type in this area, and the bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N is still an effective indicator for sources of organic matter in estuarine sediments.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.