Incidence of marine debris and its relationships with benthic features in Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary, Southeast USA

Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) is an increasingly popular site for recreational fishing and diving in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). As a result, there has been heightened concern about potential accumulation of marine debris and its consequent effects on sanctuary resources. Field surveys were conducted at GRNMS in 2004 and 2005 to provide a spatially comprehensive characterization of benthic communities and to quantify the distribution and abundance of marine debris in relation to bottom features. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than other bottom types. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boating activity and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover of benthic organisms. The results from this study will aid managers in optimizing cleanup efforts and long-term monitoring of debris accumulation patterns at GRNMS and other hard bottom areas in the SAB.     

A simulation of the Chilean Coastal Current and associated topographic upwelling near Valparaíso, Chile

A 4-year simulation of the surface circulation driven by the local wind on a section of the central Chilean coast is presented. The model is shown to reproduce the major observed features of the circulation. Comparison to observations of sea-surface temperature (SST) taken within the study area suggests that the model captures well coastal upwelling processes in the region. The circulation is shown to have two distinct modes corresponding to spring/summer and autumn/winter. During spring/summer sustained strong south-westerly wind forcing drives an equatorward coastal jet consistent with the Chile Coastal Current (CCC) and coastal upwelling at previously identified locations of intense upwelling at Topocalma Point and Curaumilla Point. Weaker winds during autumn/winter produce a slower CCC and a more homogenous SST field. Upwelling/relaxation and topographic eddies provide the main sources of variability on sub-seasonal time-scales in the model. The mechanisms responsible for each of these are discussed. Upwelling at Topocalma and Curaumilla Points is shown to be produced through generation of an upwelling Ekman bottom boundary layer following acceleration of the CCC close to the coast, reinforced by secondary circulation due to flow curvature around the headlands. Additional upwelling occurs north of Curaumilla Point due to development of shallow wind-driven overturning flow. Wind-sheltering is shown to be an important factor for explaining the fact that Valparaíso Bay is typically an upwelling shadow. Flow separation and eddy formation within Valparaíso Bay is seen to occur on the order of 10 times per year during relaxation after strong wind events and may persist for a number of weeks. Shorter lived topographic eddies are also seen to occur commonly at Topocalma and Toro Points. These eddies are shown to form in response to the surface elevation minima produced at each of these locations during upwelling.     

The Critical Richardson Number and Limits of Applicability of Local Similarity Theory in the Stable Boundary Layer

Measurements of atmospheric turbulence made over the Arctic pack ice during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment (SHEBA) are used to determine the limits of applicability of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (in the local scaling formulation) in the stable atmospheric boundary layer. Based on the spectral analysis of wind velocity and air temperature fluctuations, it is shown that, when both the gradient Richardson number, Ri, and the flux Richardson number, Rf, exceed a ‘critical value’ of about 0.20–0.25, the inertial subrange associated with the Richardson–Kolmogorov cascade dies out and vertical turbulent fluxes become small. Some small-scale turbulence survives even in this supercritical regime, but this is non-Kolmogorov turbulence, and it decays rapidly with further increasing stability. Similarity theory is based on the turbulent fluxes in the high-frequency part of the spectra that are associated with energy-containing/flux-carrying eddies. Spectral densities in this high-frequency band diminish as the Richardson–Kolmogorov energy cascade weakens; therefore, the applicability of local Monin–Obukhov similarity theory in stable conditions is limited by the inequalities Ri < Ri _cr and Rf < Rf _cr. However, it is found that Rf _cr  =  0.20–0.25 is a primary threshold for applicability. Applying this prerequisite shows that the data follow classical Monin–Obukhov local z-less predictions after the irrelevant cases (turbulence without the Richardson–Kolmogorov cascade) have been filtered out.     

Synoptic-scale physical mechanisms associated with the Mei-yu front: A numerical case study in 1999

The Mei-yu front system occurring from 23 to 27 June 1999 consists of the Mei-yu front and the dewpoint front, which confine a warm core extending from the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau to the west of 145°E. To further understand the synopticscale physical mechanisms associated with the Mei-yu front system, the present study proposes another insight into the physical significance of the x-component relative vorticity (XRV) whose vertical circulation is expected to tilt isentropic surfaces. The XRV equation diagnoses exhibit that the twisting effect of the planetary vorticity (TEPV) is positive along the Mei-yu front and negative in the dewpoint front region, and tilts isentropic surfaces from south to north in the Mei-yu frontal zone. Conversely, the meridional gradient of the atmospheric buoyancy (MGAB) tilts isentropic surfaces in the opposite direction and maintains negative in the regions where the TEPV is positive and vice versa. Thus, the TEPV plays the role of the Mei-yu frontogenesis, whereas the MGAB demonstrates the Meiyu frontolysis factor. Both terms control the evolution of the cross-front circulation. The other terms show much minor contributions in this case study. The present simulations also indicate that the weakening of the upper-level jet evidently induces the weakening of the Mei-yu front and reduces the amplitude of the East Asia cold trough. Furthermore, the impact can also penetrate into the lower troposphere in terms of mesoscale disturbances and precipitation, proving that the upper-level jet imposes a noticeable top-down influence on the Mei-yu front system.     

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land–atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant sensitivity responses are found over the karst regions, including pronounced warming and cooling effects on the near-surface atmosphere from barren and forested land cover, respectively; (3) the barren ground in the karst regions provides conditions favourable for convective development under certain conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that karst and non-karst landscapes should be distinguished, and their physical processes should be considered for future model development.     

Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning in warm-season thunderstorms in the Central Great Plains

In July 2005, a field campaign was conducted in the Central Great Plains to obtain 60-field/s video imagery of lightning in correlation with reports from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and broadband electric field waveforms from the Los Alamos Sferic Array (LASA). A total of 342 GPS time-stamped cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes were recorded in 17 different sessions, and 311 (91%) of these were correlated with reports from the NLDN. Only 6 of the 17 recording sessions were dominated by flashes that lowered negative charge to ground, and 11 were dominated by positive CG flashes. A total of 103 flashes recorded on video were correlated with at least one NLDN report of negative CG strokes, 204 video flashes were correlated with one or two positive stroke reports, and 4 had bipolar reports. In this paper, we will give distributions of the estimated peak current, I_p, as reported by the NLDN, of negative and positive first strokes that were recorded on video, the multiplicity of strokes that were recorded on video, and the number of ground contacts per flash that were resolved on video. 41 (40%) of the negative flashes produced just a single-stroke on video, and 62 (60%) showed two or more strokes. The observed multiplicity of negative flashes averaged 2.83, which becomes about 3.14 after correcting for the finite time-resolution of the video camera. 195 (96%) of the positive flashes produced just a single-stroke on video, and 9 (4%) showed two strokes; therefore, the observed multiplicity of positive flashes averaged 1.04. Five out of 9 (56%) of the positive subsequent strokes re-illuminated a previous channel, and 4 out of 9 (44%) created a new ground contact. Simultaneous video, LASA, and NLDN measurements also allowed us to examine the classification of NLDN reports during 3 single-cell storms (one negative and two positive). Based on the LASA waveforms, a total of 204 out of 376 (54%) NLDN reports of CG strokes were determined to be for cloud pulses. The misclassified negative reports had |I_p| values ranging from 3.8 kA to 29.7 kA, but only 58 (24%) of these had |I_p| > 10 kA, and only one misclassified positive report had I_p > 20 kA. Radar analyses showed that most of the negative and positive CG strokes that were recorded on video were produced within or near the convective cores of storms. The radar imagery also showed that single-cell storms tended to produce one polarity of CG flashes at a time, and that such storms could switch rapidly from negative to positive CG flashes when the reflectivity was near maximum. Multiple-cell storms produced both negative and positive flashes over a broad region, but each polarity tended to cluster near regions of high-reflectivity.     

Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability

We investigate the large-scale forcing and teleconnections between atmospheric circulation (sea level pressure, SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), precipitation and heat wave events over western Europe using a new dataset of 54 daily maximum temperature time series. Forty four of these time series have been homogenised at the daily timescale to ensure that the presence of inhomogeneities has been minimised. The daily data have been used to create a seasonal index of the number of heat waves. Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), heat waves over western Europe are shown to be related to anomalous high pressure over Scandinavia and central western Europe. Other forcing factors such as Atlantic SSTs and European precipitation, the later as a proxy for soil moisture, a known factor in strengthening land–atmosphere feedback processes, are also important. The strength of the relationship between summer SLP anomalies and heat waves is improved (from 35%) to account for around 46% of its variability when summer Atlantic and Mediterranean SSTs and summer European precipitation anomalies are included as predictors. This indicates that these predictors are not completely collinear rather that they each have some contribution to accounting for summer heat wave variability. However, the simplicity and scale of the statistical analysis masks this complex interaction between variables. There is some useful predictive skill of summer heat waves using multiple lagged predictors. A CCA using preceding winter North Atlantic SSTs and preceding January to May Mediterranean total precipitation results in significant hindcast (1972–2003) Spearman rank correlation skill scores up to 0.55 with an average skill score over the domain equal to 0.28 ± 0.28. In agreement with previous studies focused on mean summer temperature, there appears to be some predictability of heat wave events on the decadal scale from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), although the long-term global mean temperature is also well related to western European heat waves. Combining these results with the observed positive trends in summer continental European SLP, North Atlantic SSTs and indications of a decline in European summer precipitation then possibly these long-term changes are also related to increased heat wave occurrence and it is important that the physical processes controlling these changes be more fully understood.     

Deep-ocean heat uptake and equilibrium climate response

We integrate the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM to equilibrium under atmospheric CO₂ quadrupling. The equilibrium global-mean surface-temperature change is 10.8 K. The surface equilibrates within about 1,200 years, the deep ocean within 5,000 years. The impact of the deep ocean on the equilibrium surface-temperature response is illustrated by the difference between ECHAM5/MPIOM and ECHAM5 coupled with slab ocean model (ECHAM5/SOM). The equilibrium global-mean surface temperature response is 11.1 K in ECHAM5/SOM and is thus 0.3 K higher than in ECHAM5/MPIOM. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows less warming over the northern-hemisphere mid and high latitudes, but larger warming over the tropical ocean and especially over the southern-hemisphere high latitudes. ECHAM5/MPIOM shows similar polar amplification in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, in contrast to ECHAM5/SOM, which shows stronger polar amplification in the northern hemisphere. The southern polar warming in ECHAM5/MPIOM is greatly delayed by Antarctic deep-ocean warming due to convective and isopycnal mixing. The equilibrium ocean temperature warming under CO₂ quadrupling is around 8.0 K and is near-uniform with depth. The global-mean steric sea-level rise is 5.8 m in equilibrium; of this, 2.3 m are due to the deep-ocean warming after the surface temperature has almost equilibrated. This result suggests that the surface temperature change is a poor predictor for steric sea-level change in the long term. The effective climate response method described in Gregory et al. (2004) is evaluated with our simulation, which shows that their method to estimate the equilibrium climate response is accurate to within 10 %.     

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO₂ emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO₂ in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO₂ emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO₂ emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO₂ emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO₂ emissions.     

Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes

Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes extend back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century, respectively, as a result of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalized damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal variability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristic of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy.