Scaling Transition in Earthquake Sources: A Possible Link Between Seismic and Laboratory Measurements

We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M _W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M _W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M _W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M _W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M _W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M _W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M _W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.     

Flow and fracture maps for basaltic rock deformation at high temperatures

Understanding how the strength of basaltic rock varies with the extrinsic conditions of stress state, pressure and temperature, and the intrinsic rock physical properties is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of volcanic systems. In particular it is essential to understand how rock strength at high temperatures is limited by fracture. We have collated and analysed laboratory data for basaltic rocks from over 500 rock deformation experiments and plotted these on principal stress failure maps. We have fitted an empirical flow law (Norton’s law) and a theoretical fracture criterion to these data. The principal stress failure map is a graphical representation of ductile and brittle experimental data together with flow and fracture envelopes under varying strain rate, temperature and pressure. We have used these maps to re-interpret the ductile–brittle transition in basaltic rocks at high temperatures and show, conceptually, how these failure maps can be applied to volcanic systems, using lava flows as an example.     

Short‐term erosion rates from a 7Be inventory balance

Detailed soil erosion studies bene?t from the ability to quantify the magnitude of erosion over time scales appropriate to the process. An inventory balance for ⁷Be was used to calculate sediment erosion in a 30·73 m² plot during a series of runoff‐producing thunderstorms occurring over three days at the Deep Loess Research Station in Treynor, Iowa, USA. The inventory balance included determination of the pre‐ and post‐storm ⁷Be inventories in the soil, the atmospheric in?ux of ⁷Be during the event, and pro?les of the ⁷Be activity in the soil following the atmospheric deposition. The erosion calculated in the plot using the ⁷Be inventory balance was 0·058 g cm^?2, which is 23 per cent of the annual average erosion determined using ¹³⁷Cs inventories. The calculated erosion from the mass balance is similar to the 0·059 g cm^?2 of erosion estimated from the amount of sediment collected at the outlet of the 6 ha ?eld during the study period and the delivery ratio (0·64). The inventory balance of ⁷Be provides a new means for evaluating soil erosion over the time period most relevant to quantifying the prediction of erosion from runoff. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.     

To move or not to move: an applied study of veterinary clinic location in Wellington,New Zealand

This paper demonstrates the utility, in an applied context, of a standard Teitz and Bart heuristic for solving location-allocation problems. The example discussed is the location of veterinary clinics in Wellington, New Zealand. A distinct ‘service-poor’ area is identified in southern Wellington suggesting that the existing system of clinics, especially the largest multi-veterinary practice, is vulnerable to intrusion by competitors. A variety of strategies, involving new clinics and clinic relocation are analysed to ascertain alternative courses of action for both existing clinic operators and competitors. The appropriateness of this type of analysis as an aid to decision-making is reflected in the locational response of one practice to protect its share of the market for veterinary services.     

From the Seam to the Stove: greenhouse gas assessment and the coal seam gas industry in Australia

In Australia, Coal Seam Gas (CSG) is a relatively new source of natural gas commonly advocated as a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alternative to coal. This study investigates how GHG emissions have been, and potentially could be, assessed within the Australian CSG industry. The research involved a document analysis of several Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and consultant reports prepared as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process for major CSG projects in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld). There were found to be inconsistencies in the conduct of greenhouse assessment by the CSG industry, including how complete and transparent assessments were, as well as how effectively they addressed project emission intensity and cumulative impacts. There were also found to be large inconsistencies between assessments carried out for Qld projects and those for NSW projects, likely because of differences in how assessment requirements are applied by planning bodies. This study also highlights how alternative assessment approaches, such as Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), have potential to enable a broader and more consistent understanding of emission sources that cross a range of geographical and project boundaries.     

Seasonal variation in stable oxygen and carbon isotope values recovered from modern lacustrine freshwater mollusks: paleoclimatological implications for sub-weekly temperature records

A fingernail clam (Sphaerium simile, Sphaeriidae) from Science Lake, a small watershed located in Allegany State Park, New York, USA and a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha, Dreissenidae) from Keuka Lake, New York, the third largest Finger Lake of central New York, were selected to evaluate the applicability of using ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) and ¹³O_(CaCO3) values for sub-weekly climate records. Seasonal variation in ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values was compared with predicted equilibrium values to test the hypothesis that lacustrine molluscs produce shell aragonite according to environmental variables. For the purpose of comparison, aragonite temperature-fractionation equations determined by Grossman& Ku (1986) and Patterson et al. (1993) were used. Sphaerium simile appears to produce ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values predicted by Patterson et al. (1993), while Dreissena polymorpha produces ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values in agreement with Grossman & Ku (1986). We attribute the difference to family-specific temperature-fractionation relationships. Because both types of mollusc record climate variables with a high degree of integrity, they should each serve as excellent paleoclimate proxies.The fingernail clam collected from a small watershed exhibits higher variation about the seasonal pattern than did the zebra mussel collected from a large watershed. This is attributed to the increased sensitivity of the small watershed to storm perturbation. Analysis of fossil molluscs from such watersheds might be useful in discerning paleo-storminess.     

The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.