Radiation exposure and Mission Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions (REMSIM)

Cosmic radiation is an important problem for human interplanetary missions. The “Radiation Exposure and Mission Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions–REMSIM” study is summarised here. They are related to current strategies and countermeasures to ensure the protection of astronauts from radiation during interplanetary missions, with specific reference to: radiation environment and its variability; radiation effects on the crew; transfer trajectories and associated fluences; vehicle and surface habitat concepts; passive and active shielding concepts; space weather monitoring and warning systems.     

Chemical alteration of tephra in the depositional environment: theoretical stability modelling

The study of the chemical stability of vitreous material in aqueous media is well‐established. There has to date been little consideration of the implications of variations in the chemical durability of tephra in Quaternary tephrochronology. Chemical alteration can take the form of cationic leaching from the matrix, or complete destruction of the silica network, either of which could constrain the ability to chemically identify distal tephra. Here we apply established models of vitreous durability to the published chemical analyses of a large number of Icelandic tephras in order to predict their relative durabilities under equivalent conditions. This suggests that some important tephras have relatively poor chemical stability, and that rhyolitic tephras are, in general, more stable than basaltic. We conclude that tephras should be expected to show predictable differential chemical stability in the post‐depositional environment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Opposition polarimetry and photometry of S- and E-type asteroids

The first results of the observational program devoted to simultaneous investigation of asteroid polarimetric and photometric opposition phenomena are presented. UBVRI polarimetric and V-band photometric observations of the S-type Asteroid 20 Massalia and the E-type Asteroids 214 Aschera and 620 Drakonia were carried out in 1996-1999 down to phase angles of 0.08°, 0.7°, and 1.2°, correspondingly. The S-type Asteroid 20 Massalia is characterized by the pronounced brightness opposition surge with an amplitude larger than that observed for the E-type asteroids. A sharp peak of negative polarization at small phase angles was not observed for this asteroid. The value of polarization degree at phase angle α<1° is less than 0.5% for both S and E types. The negative polarization branches of S and especially E-asteroids have an asymmetrical shape. The phase angle at which the polarization minimum occurs is close to the angle at which non-linear increase begins in the asteroid magnitude phase curves. A relation of the observed effects to the mechanism of coherent backscattering is discussed.     

Parameters of the intense X-ray and gamma-ray radiation from the solar flare of May 20, 2002, as observed from the Coronas-F spacecraft

We consider temporal, spectral, and polarization parameters of the hard X-ray and gamma-ray radiation observed during the solar flare of May 20, 2002, in the course of experiments with the SONG and SPR-N instruments onboard the Coronas-F spacecraft. This flare is one of the most intense gamma-ray events among all of the bursts of solar hard electromagnetic radiation detected since the beginning of the Coronas-F operation (since July 31, 2001) and one of the few gamma-ray events observed during solar cycle 23. A simultaneous analysis of the Coronas-F and GOES data on solar thermal X-ray radiation suggests that, apart from heating due to currents of matter in the the flare region, impulsive heating due to the injection of energetic electrons took place during the near-limb flare S21E65 of May 20, 2002. These electrons produced intense hard X-ray and gamma-ray radiation. The spectrum of this radiation extends up to energies ≥7 MeV. Intense gamma-ray lines are virtually unobservable against the background of the nonthermal continuum. The polarization of the hard X-ray (20–100 keV) radiation was estimated to be ≤15–20%. No significant increase in the flux of energetic protons from the flare under consideration was found. At the same time, according to ACE data, the fluxes of energetic electrons in interplanetary space increased shortly (～25 min) after the flare.     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.