Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology,society and change

ABSTRACT

In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned     

Growth fold controls on carbonate distribution in mixed foreland basins: insights from the Amiran foreland basin (NW Zagros,Iran) and stratigraphic numerical modelling

The evolution from Late Cretaceous to early Eocene of the well dated Amiran foreland basin in the NW Iranian Zagros Mountains is studied based on the reconstruction of successive thickness, palaeobathymetry and subsidence maps. These maps show the progressive forelandwards migration of the mixed carbonate‐siliciclastic system associated with a decrease in creation of accommodation. Carbonate facies variations across the basin suggest a structural control on the carbonate distribution in the Amiran foreland basin, which has been used as initial constraint to study the control exerted by syndepositional folding in basin architecture and evolution by means of stratigraphic numerical modelling. Modelled results show that shallow bathymetries on top of growing folds enhance carbonate production and basin compartmentalization. As a consequence, coarse clastics become restricted to the internal parts of the basin and only the fine sediments can by‐pass the bathymetric highs generated by folding. Additionally, the development of extensive carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines favours the basinwards migration of the depositional system, which progrades farther with higher fold uplift rates. In this scenario, build‐ups on top of anticlines record its growth and can be used as a dating method. Extrapolation of presented modelling results into the Amiran foreland basin is in agreement with an early folding stage in the SE Lurestan area, between the Khorramabad and Kabir Kuh anticlines. This folding stage would enhance the development of carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines, the south‐westward migration of the system and eventually, the complete filling of the basin north of the Chenareh anticline at the end of the Cuisian. Incremental thickness maps are consistent with a thin (0.4–2 km) ophiolite complex in the source area of the Amiran basin.     

A Spatio‐Temporal Graph Model for Marine Dune Dynamics Analysis and Representation

Defining a model for the representation and the analysis of spatio‐temporal dynamics remains an open domain in geographical information sciences. In this article we investigate a spatio‐temporal graph‐based model dedicated to managing and extracting sets of geographical entities related in space and time. The approach is based on spatial and temporal local relations between neighboring entities during consecutive times. The model allows us to extract sets of connected entities distant in time and space over long periods and large spaces. From GIS concepts and qualitative reasoning on space and time, we combine the graph model with a dedicated spatial database. It includes information on geometry and geomorphometric parameters, and on spatial and temporal relations. This allows us to extend classical measurements of spatial parameters, with comparisons of entities linked by complex relations in space and time. As a case study, we show how the model suggests an efficient representation of dunes dynamics on a nautical chart for safe navigation.     

Testing resilience thinking in a poverty context: Experience from the Niger River basin

Resilience thinking is an important addition to the range of frameworks and approaches that can be used to understand and manage complex social–ecological systems like small-scale fisheries. However, it is yet to lead to better environmental or development outcomes for fisheries stakeholders in terms of food security, improved livelihoods and ecological sustainability. This paper takes an empirical approach by focusing on the fundamentals of resilience thinking to evaluate its usefulness in developing relevant management interventions in small-scale fisheries in the Niger River Basin in West Africa. The paper presents the outputs of a participatory assessment exercise where both fishery communities and local experts were involved at two different scales. The resilience frame used was designed to facilitate the identification of socially defined thresholds that help delineate the desirability of the current system configuration and provides a diagnosis framework that tailors management solutions to problems in local context. The analysis highlights some key contributions from resilience thinking to the challenge of diagnosis in small-scale fisheries management in developing countries, as well as important contributions that emerge from taking a pragmatic and critical approach to its application.     

Mapping of erosion rates in marly badlands based on a coupling of anatomical changes in exposed roots with slope maps derived from LiDAR data

Black marls form very extensive outcrops in the Alps and constitute some of the most eroded terrains, thus causing major problems of sedimentation in artificial storage systems (e.g. reservoirs) and river systems. In the experimental catchments near Draix (France), soil erosion rates have been measured in the past at the plot scale through a detailed monitoring of surface elevation changes and at the catchment scale through continuous monitoring of sediment yield in traps at basin outlets. More recently, erosion rates have been determined by means of dendrogeomorphic techniques in three monitored catchments of the Draix basin. A total of 48 exposed roots of Scots pine have been sampled and anatomical variations in annual growth rings resulting from denudation analysed. At the plot scale, average medium‐term soil erosion rates derived from exposed roots vary between 1·8 and 13·8 mm yr^?1 (average: 5·9 mm yr^?1) and values are significantly correlated with slope angle. The dendrogeomorphic record of point‐scale soil erosion rates matches very well with soil erosion rates measured in the Draix basins. Based on the point‐scale measurements and dendrogeomorphic results obtained at the point scale, a linear regression model involving slope angle was derived and coupled to high‐resolution slope maps obtained from a LiDAR‐generated digital elevation model so as to generate high‐resolution soil erosion maps. The resulting regression model is statistically significant and average soil erosion rates obtained from the areal erosion map (5·8, 5·2 and 6·2 mm yr^?1 for the Roubine, Moulin and Laval catchments, respectively) prove to be well in concert with average annual erosion rates measured in traps at the outlet of these catchments since 1985 (6·3, 4·1 and 6·4 mm yr^?1). This contribution demonstrates that dendrogeomorphic analyses of roots clearly have significant potential and that they are a powerful tool for the quantification and mapping of soil erosion rates in areas where measurements of past erosion is lacking. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of the foot evolution on the behaviour of slow-moving landslides

The paper presents a time-dependent 2D numerical model which has been developed with the purpose of highlighting the effects of the slope foot evolution on the behaviour of slow-moving landslides. The model allows to quantitatively analyse how foot mass variations can influence the stability and the movement rates of the landslide.The landslide body is modelled as composed of two rigid blocks sliding on two different planes and interacting through a common boundary, which position is assumed fixed during the analysis. A finite difference approach is used to discretize the time. For each time increment, changes in model parameters are allowed, including variations in shearing resistances, groundwater level and block masses (in order to simulate foot erosion). During each iteration, the overall stability of the system is checked computing the safety factor, assuming that the percentage of mobilized shear strength is the same for the three surfaces. If the system is not stable or if it is not at rest, the velocity of the system is computed solving the momentum equations for the two blocks taking into account destabilising and resisting forces, the mechanical interaction between the blocks and viscous components. Computed velocities are iteratively used to compute mass accumulation at the foot, which in turn results in a change of the stability condition of the system.Examples are provided in order to highlight the roles of the model parameters. Finally, the application to a real landslide (Vallcebre, Spain) is presented which shows the advantage of considering the foot mass in the analysis of the displacement trends and the possibility to take into account the foot erosion in the long-term behaviour of the slope.     

Biogeochemical processes in a clay formation in situ experiment: Part E - Equilibrium controls on chemistry of pore water from the Opalinus Clay, Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory, Switzerland

The chemistry of pore water (particularly pH and ionic strength) is an important property of clay rocks being considered as host rocks for long-term storage of radioactive waste. Pore waters in clay-rich rocks generally cannot be sampled directly. Instead, their chemistry must be found using laboratory-measured properties of core samples and geochemical modelling. Many such measurements have been made on samples from the Opalinus Clay from the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory (URL). Several boreholes in that URL yielded water samples against which pore water models have been calibrated. Following a first synthesis report published in 2003, this paper presents the evolution of the modelling approaches developed within Mont Terri URL scientific programs through the last decade (1997-2009). Models are compared to the composition of waters sampled during dedicated borehole experiments. Reanalysis of the models, parameters and database enabled the principal shortcomings of the previous modelling efforts to be overcome. The inability to model the K concentrations correctly with the measured cation exchange properties was found to be due to the use of an inappropriate selectivity coefficient for Na-K exchange; the inability to reproduce the measured carbonate chemistry and pH of the pore waters using mineral-water reactions alone was corrected by considering clay mineral equilibria. Re-examination of the measured Ca/Mg activity ratios and consideration of the mineralogical composition of the Opalinus Clay suggested that Ca/Mg cation exchange rather than dolomite saturation may control the ratio of these ions in solution. This re-examination also suggests that the Ca/Mg ratio decreases with increasing pore-water salinity. Several possible reasons for this are proposed. Moreover, it is demonstrated that feldspar equilibria must not be included in Opalinus Clay modelling because feldspars are present only in very small quantities in the formation and because Na/K ratios measured in pore water samples are inconsistent with feldspar saturation. The principal need to improve future modelling is additional or better data on rock properties, in particular: (i) a more detailed identification of phases in the Opalinus Clay that include redox-sensitive elements together with evaluation of their thermodynamic properties; (ii) an improved understanding of the distribution of celestite throughout the Opalinus Clay for Sr/SO₄ concentrations control; (iii) improvements in analytic and thermodynamic data for Ca-Mg rock cation exchange and mineral chemical properties and (iv) the measurement of composition and stability constants of clay minerals actually present in the formation.     

Analysis of the Excavation Deviations Impact on Geological Radioactive Waste Repository Performance

Numerical simulations of the transport of radionuclide from high-level radioactive waste stored in geological repositories often do not take into account construction defects in the repository. The potential impact of drilling and excavation deviation from the engineer planned design is a priori considered negligible. We conducted computations on repository geometries that contain deviations from horizontal of a few degrees. The analysis of the results shows that the impact of deviation defects varies from 9 to 16%. A perfect control of the galleries and waste repository cell orientations is then of concern for radioactive waste repository construction, failing which numerical simulations must be conducted on the worst geometric configuration or margin errors added. On the other hand, if the orientation control is precise enough, a modification of the repository design including controlled deviations from the horizontal may be of interest.     

Recent advances in offshore geotechnics for deep water oil and gas developments

The paper presents an overview of recent developments in geotechnical analysis and design associated with oil and gas developments in deep water. Typically the seabed in deep water comprises soft, lightly overconsolidated, fine grained sediments, which must support a variety of infrastructure placed on the seabed or anchored to it. A particular challenge is often the mobility of the infrastructure either during installation or during operation, and the consequent disturbance and healing of the seabed soil, leading to changes in seabed topography and strength. Novel aspects of geotechnical engineering for offshore facilities in these conditions are reviewed, including: new equipment and techniques to characterise the seabed; yield function approaches to evaluate the capacity of shallow skirted foundations; novel anchoring systems for moored floating facilities; pipeline and steel catenary riser interaction with the seabed; and submarine slides and their impact on infrastructure. Example results from sophisticated physical and numerical modelling are presented.     

A western boundary current east of New Caledonia: Observed characteristics

Waters from the South Equatorial Current (SEC), the northern branch of the South Pacific subtropical gyre, are a major supply of heat to the equatorial warm pool, and have an important contribution to climate variability and ENSO which motivated the Southwest Pacific Ocean and Climate Experiment (SPICE, CLIVAR/WCRP). Initially a broad westward current extending from the equator to 30°S, the SEC splits upon arriving at the major islands and archipelagoes of Fiji (18°S, 180°E), Vanuatu (16°S, 168°E), and New Caledonia (22°S, 165°E), resulting in a complex system of western boundary currents and zonal jets that feed the Coral and Solomon Seas. We focus here on the formation of one specific jet feeding the Coral Sea, the North Caledonian Jet (NCJ). Using a combination of recent oceanographic cruises, we describe the ocean circulation to the northeast of New Caledonia, where the SEC forms a western boundary current that ultimately becomes the NCJ. This current, which we document for the first time and propose to refer to as the East Caledonian Current (ECC), has its core located 10-100 km off the east coast of New Caledonia, and extends vertically to at least 1000 m depth. Water mass properties show continuous westward transports through the ECC, from the SEC to the NCJ in both the South Pacific Tropical Waters in the thermocline and Antarctic Intermediate Waters near 700 m depth. The ECC extends about 100 km horizontally; its average 0-1000 m transport was estimated at 14.5±3 Sv off the north tip of the New Caledonian reef, with a maximum of 20 Sv in May 2010. South of that the upstream branch of the ECC east of the Loyalty is close to 8 Sv suggesting an important additional contribution from central Pacific waters carried by the SEC at 16°S and diverted to our region through the western boundary current system east of Vanuatu.