Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability

Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift of the climatological wind-stress curl. The latter affects subtropical SSH annual variability by altered Sverdrup balance and ocean Rossby wave dynamics propagating westward from the African coast towards the Caribbean. The use of a simple linear planetary geostrophic model allows to quantify those effects and confirms the primary importance of the winter season to explain the largest part of SSH interannual variability in the Atlantic subtropical gyre. Our results open new perspectives in the comprehension of North-Atlantic Ocean variability emphasizing the role of AR as a driver of interannual variability at least of comparable importance to NAO.     

Spectroscopic anatomy of a meteor trail cross section with the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope

Abstract— A meteor spectrum was recorded serendipitously at the European Southern Obrervatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) during a long exposure in long‐slit spectroscopic mode with FORS1. The ?8 magnitude fireball crossed the narrow 1Î × 7î slit during the observation of a high z supernova in normal service mode operation on May 12, 2002. The spectrum covered the range of 637–1050 nm, where the meteor's air plasma emissions from N₂, N, and O dominate. Carbon atom emission was not detected in the relatively unexplored wavelength range above 900 nm, but the observed upper limit was only 3 sigma less than expected from the dissociation of atmospheric CO₂. The meteor trail was resolved along the slit, and the emission had a Gaussian distribution with a dimension of FWHM = 7.0 (±0.4) * sin(α) * H (km)/90 m, where α is the unknown angle between the orientation of the meteor path and slit and H the assumed altitude of the meteor in km. To our knowledge, this is the first observation of a spatially resolved spectrum across a meteor trail. Unlike model predictions, the plasma excitation temperature varied only from about 4,300 to 4,365 K across the trail, based on the ratio of atomic and molecular nitrogen emissions. Unfortunately, we conclude that this was because the meteor at 100 km altitude was out of focus.     

THE WASHOUGAL METEORITE

The Washougal, Washington, U.S.A., howardite fell in 1939. We studied its mineralogy optically and determined the ranges of composition of plagioclase and pyroxenes from measurements of densities and indices of refraction. Notable among many unique xenoliths are a round object whose morphology is that of an armored chondrule; a stratified fragment; and a centimeter-sized dunite xenolith (olivine Fa_12.8). The abundances of 27 elements, including all major elements and 15 trace elements (Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Ga, Sr, Y, Ba, La, Sm, Eu, Yb, Lu and Hf) are reported. To a first approximation, the composition of Washougal corresponds to a mixture of 51 weight percent of eucritic material and 49 percent of a diogenitic component, but excesses of some elements suggest a minor component of chondritic composition     

An improved lunar moment of inertia determination: a proposed strategy

The current error of 0.0025 on the lunar homogeneity parameterI/MR ² is dominated by the uncertainties in theC ₂₀ andC ₂₂ gravity harmonics. This error level is equivalent to a 4.20 gm cm^–3 density uncertainty for a lunar interior model having a core 300 km in radius. Covariance analyses are performed using Doppler data from the relay satellite of the proposed Lunar Polar Orbiter mission to determine an optimum reduction strategy which obtains an order of magnitude improvement in the gravity estimates. Error studies show the long-arc reduction method obtains results which are an order of magnitude more accurate than the short-arc technique. The nominal 4000 km circular orbit of the relay satellite is very sensitive to the unmodeled effects of gravity harmonics of degree 5 through 9. Results from this orbital geometry indicate that it may not be possible to achieve the desired order of magnitude accuracy improvement. A modified orbit having the identical orbital conditions as the nominal one, but with a larger semi-major axis of 7000 km is studied. Results show the desired order of magnitude improvement can be achieved when a complete fourth degree and order model and some fifth and sixth degree terms are estimated while considering the unmodeled effects of the remaining harmonics through degree and order eight. Studies also show a 50% additional improvement inC ₂₂ can be achieved if differential differenced Doppler is also processed with the direct Doppler. The improved uncertainty inI/MR ² reduces the core density error from 4.20 gm cm^–3 to 0.1 gm cm^–3 for the case of a lunar density model having a 300 km core radius.Contribution #2885 of the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, U.S.A.     

Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

A multiproxy evaluation of Holocene environmental change from Lake Igaliku, South Greenland

This is the first integrated multiproxy study to investigate climate, catchment evolution and lake ecology in South Greenland. A 4-m-long sedimentary sequence from Lake Igaliku (61o 00?? N, 45o 26?? W, 15?m asl) documents major environmental and climatic changes in south Greenland during the last 10?ka. The chronology is based on a ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs profile and 28 radiocarbon dates. The paleoenvironmental history is interpreted on the basis of magnetic susceptibility, grain size, total organic carbon, total nitrogen and sulphur, sedimentation rates, pollen, and diatom assemblages. The basal radiocarbon date at ca. 10?cal?ka BP provides a minimum age for the deglaciation of the basin, which is followed by ~500?years of high sedimentation rates in a glacio-marine environment. After the glacio-isostatic emergence of the basin ca. 9.5?cal?ka BP, limnological and terrestrial proxies suggests early warmth, which may have been interrupted by a cold, dry and windy period between 8.6 and 8.1?cal?ka BP. A dry and windy event ~5.3?C4.8?cal?ka BP preceded the Neoglacial transition at Lake Igaliku, which is characterized by a shift toward moister and perhaps cooler conditions ~4.8?cal?ka BP, causing major changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecological conditions. Significant cooling is documented after ~3?cal?ka BP. Since ~1?cal?ka BP the climatic-driven changes were overprinted by the human influence of Norse and recent agriculture.     

Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.