Properties and Comparison of Some Kriging Sub-model Aggregation Methods

Mathematical Geosciences - Kriging is a widely employed technique across computer experiments, machine learning and geostatistics. An important challenge for kriging is its high costs when dealing...     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent advances in offshore geotechnics for deep water oil and gas developments

The paper presents an overview of recent developments in geotechnical analysis and design associated with oil and gas developments in deep water. Typically the seabed in deep water comprises soft, lightly overconsolidated, fine grained sediments, which must support a variety of infrastructure placed on the seabed or anchored to it. A particular challenge is often the mobility of the infrastructure either during installation or during operation, and the consequent disturbance and healing of the seabed soil, leading to changes in seabed topography and strength. Novel aspects of geotechnical engineering for offshore facilities in these conditions are reviewed, including: new equipment and techniques to characterise the seabed; yield function approaches to evaluate the capacity of shallow skirted foundations; novel anchoring systems for moored floating facilities; pipeline and steel catenary riser interaction with the seabed; and submarine slides and their impact on infrastructure. Example results from sophisticated physical and numerical modelling are presented.     

Role of fronts in the formation of Arabian Sea barrier layers during summer monsoon

The barrier layer (BL) — a salinity stratification embedded in the upper warm layer — is a common feature of the tropical oceans. In the northern Indian Ocean, it has the potential to significantly alter the air–sea interactions. In the present paper, we investigate the spatio-temporal structure of BL in the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon. This season is indeed a key component of the Asian climate. Based on a comprehensive dataset of Conductivity–Temperature–Depth (CTD) and Argo in situ hydrographic profiles, we find that a BL exists in the central Arabian Sea during summer. However, it is highly heterogeneous in space, and intermittent, with scales of about ～100 km or less and a couple of weeks. The BL patterns appear to be closely associated to the salinity front separating two water masses (Arabian Sea High Salinity Water in the Northern and Eastern part of the basin, fresher Bay of Bengal Water to the south and to the west). An ocean general circulation model is used to infer the formation mechanism of the BL. It appears that thick (more than 40 m) BL patterns are formed at the salinity front by subduction of the saltier water mass under the fresher one in an area of relatively uniform temperature. Those thick BL events, with variable position and timing, result in a broader envelope of thinner BL in climatological conditions. However, the individual patterns of BL are probably too much short-lived to significantly affect the monsoonal air–sea interactions.     

Constraints on mantle plumes on Venus: Implications for volatile history

The analysis of Venus’ gravity field and topography suggests the presence of a small number of deep mantle plumes (～9). This study predicts the number of plumes formed at the core–mantle boundary, their characteristics, and the production of partial melt from adiabatic decompression. Numerical simulations are performed using a 3D spherical code that includes large viscosity variations and internal heating. This study investigates the effect of several parameters including the core–mantle boundary temperature, the amount of internal heating, and the mantle viscosity. The smallest number of plumes is achieved when no internal heating is present. However, scaling Earth’s radiogenic heating to Venus suggests a value of ～16 TW. Cases with internal heating produce more realistic lid thickness and partial melting, but produce either too many plumes or no plumes if a high mantle temperature precludes the formation of a hot thermal boundary layer. Mantle viscosity must be reduced to at least 10²⁰ Pa s in order to include significant internal heating and still produce hot plumes. In all cases that predict melting, melting occurs throughout the upper mantle. Only cases with high core temperature (>1700 K) produce dry melting. Over time the upper mantle may have lost significant volatiles. Depending on the water content of the lower mantle, deep plumes may contribute to present-day atmospheric water via volcanic outgassing. Assuming 50 ppm water in mantle, 10 plumes with a buoyancy flux of 500 kg/s continuously erupting for 4 myr will outgas an amount of water on the order of that in the lower atmosphere. A higher level of internal heating than achieved to date, as well as relatively low mantle viscosity, may be required to achieve simulations with ～10 plumes and a thinner lid. Alternatively, if the mantle is heating up due to the stagnant lid, the effect is equivalent to having lower rates of internal heating. A temperature increase of 110 K/byr is equivalent to ?13 TW. This value along with the internal heating of 3 TW used in this study may represent the approximate heat budget of Venus’ mantle.     

Studying Resource-Dependent Communities Through a Social-Ecological Lens? Examining Complementarity with Existing Research Traditions in Canada

This article explores the suitability of Ostrom and colleagues' social-ecological systems framework (SESF) for the study of resource-dependent communities in Canada. Through a broad literature about resource-dependent communities in Canada, three main approaches are identified, named staples research, rural development, and sustainability studies. Each of these research traditions is analyzed with regards to a common set of criteria – focus, scale, methods, treatment of institutions, and treatment of environmental dimensions. Research in each category is compared and contrasted with the SESF approach, to identify areas of overlap and divergence. Results indicate that the SESF is unlikely to provide additional benefit in terms of in-depth of social analysis, however, it does provide a unique contribution in terms of its coupled approach to conceiving social and ecological systems and its ability to operationalize these relationships through structured variables.     

Growth fold controls on carbonate distribution in mixed foreland basins: insights from the Amiran foreland basin (NW Zagros,Iran) and stratigraphic numerical modelling

The evolution from Late Cretaceous to early Eocene of the well dated Amiran foreland basin in the NW Iranian Zagros Mountains is studied based on the reconstruction of successive thickness, palaeobathymetry and subsidence maps. These maps show the progressive forelandwards migration of the mixed carbonate‐siliciclastic system associated with a decrease in creation of accommodation. Carbonate facies variations across the basin suggest a structural control on the carbonate distribution in the Amiran foreland basin, which has been used as initial constraint to study the control exerted by syndepositional folding in basin architecture and evolution by means of stratigraphic numerical modelling. Modelled results show that shallow bathymetries on top of growing folds enhance carbonate production and basin compartmentalization. As a consequence, coarse clastics become restricted to the internal parts of the basin and only the fine sediments can by‐pass the bathymetric highs generated by folding. Additionally, the development of extensive carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines favours the basinwards migration of the depositional system, which progrades farther with higher fold uplift rates. In this scenario, build‐ups on top of anticlines record its growth and can be used as a dating method. Extrapolation of presented modelling results into the Amiran foreland basin is in agreement with an early folding stage in the SE Lurestan area, between the Khorramabad and Kabir Kuh anticlines. This folding stage would enhance the development of carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines, the south‐westward migration of the system and eventually, the complete filling of the basin north of the Chenareh anticline at the end of the Cuisian. Incremental thickness maps are consistent with a thin (0.4–2 km) ophiolite complex in the source area of the Amiran basin.     

Prediction of the calcium carbonate budget in a sedimentary basin: A “source-to-sink” approach applied to Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA

Most source-to-sink studies typically focus on the dynamics of clastic sediments and consider erosion, transport and deposition of sediment particles as the sole contributors. Although often neglected, dissolved solids produced by weathering processes contribute significantly in the sedimentary dynamics of basins, supporting chemical and/or biological precipitation. Calcium ions are usually a major dissolved constituent of water drained through the watershed and may facilitate the precipitation of calcium carbonate when supersaturating conditions are reached. The high mobility of Ca²⁺ ions may cause outflow from an open system and consequently loss. In contrast, in closed basins, all dissolved (i.e. non-volatile) inputs converge at the lowest point of the basin. The endoreic Great Salt Lake basin constitutes an excellent natural laboratory to study the dynamics of calcium on a basin scale, from the erosion and transport through the watershed to the sink, including sedimentation in lake's waterbody. The current investigation focused on the Holocene epoch. Despite successive lake level fluctuations (amplitude around 10 m), the average water level seems to have not been affected by any significant long-term change (i.e. no increasing or decreasing trend, but fairly stable across the Holocene). Weathering of calcium-rich minerals in the watershed mobilizes Ca²⁺ ions that are transported by surface streams and subsurface flow to the Great Salt Lake (GSL). Monitoring data of these flows was corrected for recent anthropogenic activity (river management) and combined with direct precipitation (i.e. rain and snow) and atmospheric dust income into the lake, allowing estimating the amount of calcium delivered to the GSL. These values were then extrapolated through the Holocene period and compared to the estimated amount of calcium stored in GSL water column, porewater and sediments (using hydrochemical, mapping, coring and petrophysical estimates). The similar estimate of calcium delivered (4.88 Gt) and calcium stored (3.94 Gt) is consistent with the premise of the source-to-sink approach: a mass balance between eroded and transported compounds and the sinks. The amount of calcium deposited in the basin can therefore be predicted indirectly from the different inputs, which can be assessed with more confidence. When monitoring is unavailable (e.g. in the fossil record), the geodynamic context, the average lithology of the watershed and the bioclimatic classification of an endoreic basin are alternative properties that may be used to estimate the inputs. We show that this approach is sufficiently accurate to predict the amount of calcium captured in a basin and can be extended to the whole fossil record and inform on the storage of calcium.     

A multiproxy evaluation of Holocene environmental change from Lake Igaliku, South Greenland

This is the first integrated multiproxy study to investigate climate, catchment evolution and lake ecology in South Greenland. A 4-m-long sedimentary sequence from Lake Igaliku (61o 00?? N, 45o 26?? W, 15?m asl) documents major environmental and climatic changes in south Greenland during the last 10?ka. The chronology is based on a ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs profile and 28 radiocarbon dates. The paleoenvironmental history is interpreted on the basis of magnetic susceptibility, grain size, total organic carbon, total nitrogen and sulphur, sedimentation rates, pollen, and diatom assemblages. The basal radiocarbon date at ca. 10?cal?ka BP provides a minimum age for the deglaciation of the basin, which is followed by ~500?years of high sedimentation rates in a glacio-marine environment. After the glacio-isostatic emergence of the basin ca. 9.5?cal?ka BP, limnological and terrestrial proxies suggests early warmth, which may have been interrupted by a cold, dry and windy period between 8.6 and 8.1?cal?ka BP. A dry and windy event ~5.3?C4.8?cal?ka BP preceded the Neoglacial transition at Lake Igaliku, which is characterized by a shift toward moister and perhaps cooler conditions ~4.8?cal?ka BP, causing major changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecological conditions. Significant cooling is documented after ~3?cal?ka BP. Since ~1?cal?ka BP the climatic-driven changes were overprinted by the human influence of Norse and recent agriculture.