Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.     

A review on missing hydrological data processing

Like almost all fields of science, hydrology has benefited to a large extent from the tremendous improvements in scientific instruments that are able to collect long-time data series and an increase in available computational power and storage capabilities over the last decades. Many model applications and statistical analyses (e.g., extreme value analysis) are based on these time series. Consequently, the quality and the completeness of these time series are essential. Preprocessing of raw data sets by filling data gaps is thus a necessary procedure. Several interpolation techniques with different complexity are available ranging from rather simple to extremely challenging approaches. In this paper, various imputation methods available to the hydrological researchers are reviewed with regard to their suitability for filling gaps in the context of solving hydrological questions. The methodological approaches include arithmetic mean imputation, principal component analysis, regression-based methods and multiple imputation methods. In particular, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models which originate from finance and econometrics will be discussed regarding their applicability to data series characterized by non-constant volatility and heteroscedasticity in hydrological contexts. The review shows that methodological advances driven by other fields of research bear relevance for a more intensive use of these methods in hydrology. Up to now, the hydrological community has paid little attention to the imputation ability of time series models in general and ARCH models in particular.     

蔗渣生物质炭对喀斯特农田石灰性土壤氮转化过程的短期影响

生物质炭对于土壤中不同形态氮库的含量影响已有较多研究,但对西南喀斯特区石灰性土壤氮素形态,尤其是控制氮素形态的转化过程研究较为缺乏。本研究设置土壤中添加1%（C1）和3%（C2）蔗渣生物质炭2个用量水平,并以不施用蔗渣生物质炭作为对照（CK）,共3个处理,通过15NH4NO3和NH415NO3成对标记技术,结合MCMC氮素转化模型研究了不同用量的蔗渣生物质炭对石灰性土壤氮转化过程的短期影响,为该地区蔗渣资源化利用和土壤氮保持提供理论支撑。结果表明,与CK相比,添加蔗渣生物质炭能够快速提高土壤pH和有机碳含量。添加生物质炭并没有显著改变土壤氮的矿化、铵态氮（NH+4氮（NO-3物同化和异养硝化速率,但NH+4随生物质炭用量的增加而提高,以添加量最高的C2处理最大。添加生物质炭同样提高了土壤NH+4速率,但C1和C2处理的土壤NH+4放速率并无显著性差异。与CK和C1处理相比,施用高量蔗渣生物质炭通过抑制自养硝化速率而显著降低了硝态氮净产生速率。这些结果表明,施用高量蔗渣生物质炭于石灰性土壤中可快速实现对NH+4,降低自养硝化速率,减少NO-3,从而降低了其损耗和淋失风险。     

Flood frequencies reveal Holocene rapid climate changes (Lower Moulouya River,northeastern Morocco)

Current high‐resolution palaeoenvironmental records reveal short‐term Holocene coolings. One of these major Holocene rapid climate changes occurred between 3.2 and 2.7 cal. ka BP. The sensitivity of river systems vis‐à‐vis slight and short‐term Holocene climatic variations is a subject of controversy in the scientific community. In this paper, we present a 4.0 to 1.4 cal ka BP palaeoflood record from the Lower Moulouya River (northeastern Morocco) to demonstrate the high sensitivity of semiarid rivers in the southwestern Mediterranean towards Holocene environmental changes. The Lower Moulouya flood deposits are characterised by thick, well‐stratified, predominantly clayey to silty overbank fine sediments. These cohesive sediments show evidence of excellent preservation conditions against fluvial erosion and contain a continuous record of mid to late Holocene flood sequences. The Moulouya palaeoflood record can be interpreted in the context of regional and global high‐resolution proxy data, revealing a strong coupling with Holocene rapid climate changes. The centennial‐scale Moulouya palaeohydrological history will be discussed with palaeoenvironmental data from the same record (palaeomagnetics, sedimentary charcoal record, anthracological analyses, snail analyses) to generate new ideas about the mid to late Holocene hydrological cycle in the southwestern Mediterranean. The deduced features of pronounced Lower Moulouya flooding and the decreased fire recurrence during Holocene cooling remain somewhat inconsistent with the interpretation of other palaeohydrological and paleaoecological records from the southwestern Mediterranean. However, enhanced Lower Moulouya flood frequencies between 3.2 and 2.7 cal. ka BP agree with increased floodplain aggradation in other major river systems of Mediterranean North Africa. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of the late Cenozoic Chaco foreland basin, Southern Bolivia

Eastward Andean orogenic growth since the late Oligocene led to variable crustal loading, flexural subsidence and foreland basin sedimentation in the Chaco basin. To understand the interaction between Andean tectonics and contemporaneous foreland development, we analyse stratigraphic, sedimentologic and seismic data from the Subandean Belt and the Chaco Basin. The structural features provide a mechanism for transferring zones of deposition, subsidence and uplift. These can be reconstructed based on regional distribution of clastic sequences. Isopach maps, combined with sedimentary architecture analysis, establish systematic thickness variations, facies changes and depositional styles. The foreland basin consists of five stratigraphic successions controlled by Andean orogenic episodes and climate: (1) the foreland basin sequence commences between ～27 and 14 Ma with the regionally unconformable, thin, easterly sourced fluvial Petaca strata. It represents a significant time interval of low sediment accumulation in a forebulge‐backbulge depocentre. (2) The overlying ～14–7 Ma‐old Yecua Formation, deposited in marine, fluvial and lacustrine settings, represents increased subsidence rates from thrust‐belt loading outpacing sedimentation rates. It marks the onset of active deformation and the underfilled stage of the foreland basin in a distal foredeep. (3) The overlying ～7–6 Ma‐old, westerly sourced Tariquia Formation indicates a relatively high accommodation and sediment supply concomitant with the onset of deposition of Andean‐derived sediment in the medial‐foredeep depocentre on a distal fluvial megafan. Progradation of syntectonic, wedge‐shaped, westerly sourced, thickening‐ and coarsening‐upward clastics of the (4) ～6–2.1 Ma‐old Guandacay and (5) ～2.1 Ma‐to‐Recent Emborozú Formations represent the propagation of the deformation front in the present Subandean Zone, thereby indicating selective trapping of coarse sediments in the proximal foredeep and wedge‐top depocentres, respectively. Overall, the late Cenozoic stratigraphic intervals record the easterly propagation of the deformation front and foreland depocentre in response to loading and flexure by the growing Intra‐ and Subandean fold‐and‐thrust belt.     

Identifying low-temperature hydrothermal karst and palaeowaters using stable isotopes: a case study from an alpine cave,Entrische Kirche,Austria

The area south of the prominent east–west trending Salzach Valley at the northern rim of the Central Alps of Austria has long been known to host anomalously warm springs emerging from a highly deformed calcite marble (Klammkalk). This unit also hosts cavities whose shapes suggest a hydrothermal karst origin and which are lined by calcite spar. We report here petrographic and isotopic evidence suggesting that dissolution by ascending low-temperature thermal waters also played an important role in the origin of a large cave in this region, Entrische Kirche. A paleo cave wall, preserved behind a thick flowstone in the interior of this cave, revealed a brownish bleaching zone which contrasts to the medium grey colour of the unaltered marble beneath. Across this zone the C and O isotope values gradually decrease by 3 and 11‰, respectively. These compositions are very different from those of the speleothem above but are similar to phreatic calcite spar from hydrothermal karst cavities in other outcrops in the area, where the absence of two-phase fluid inclusions suggests a low-temperature (less than ca. 50°C) hydrothermal origin. U/Th dating of the flowstone capping the alteration zone yielded a minimum age of the thermal water invasion in Entrische Kirche of ca. 240 kyr. There is no evidence in Entrische Kirche that these palaeowaters reached the point of calcite precipitation, but it is physically conceivable that higher and as yet unexplored parts of this deep (ca. 900 m) cave contain cavities lined by phreatic cave spar.